The ICP 2011 Round Presented by: Michel Mouyelo-Katoula Global Manager International Comparison Program World Bank

Outline 2 IIntroduction & objectives for the 2011 round IILessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements IIIInstitutional arrangements IVCountries’ activities VPPP aggregation & linking VIICP data uses VIIICP 2011: methodological development & timeframe VIIIThe way forward

Part I Introduction & objectives for the 2011 round 3

4 Implement UNSC Recommendations Meet Users’ Needs and reach out to Users Meet Global Demand for PPP-adjusted Statistics Objectives and Strategies for 2011 Round Objectives PPP results at regional level for 2011 PPP results at global level for 2011 Poverty PPPs Main results Improved GDP expenditures statistics Improved methodologies Learning material and ICP book ICP Data Quality Framework ICP software suite ICP databases and metadata repositories Other results

Part II Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements 5

6 Role of the ICP Executive Board Role of the Technical Advisory Group Role of the regional coordinators Regional workshops with countries, global workshops with regions Partnering arrangements between national statistical offices and regions/global office Australia, Canada, France, Russia, the UK … What worked in ICP 2005 Defining respective roles in governance UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board and TAG Respective roles of the UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board, and Technical Advisory Group Agreements with regions/countries more explicitly define requirements for submitting regional and ring data More explicitly define policies on data access and sharing Define process to determine methodology for regional results and linking Strengthen ties between ICP and Eurostat-OECD Separate agreement Mutual representation in regional workshops Encourage more partnering arrangements Determine protocol with countries when data collected by regional or global consultants Limit on what countries can do at a time … Where improvements can be made

7 Lesson learnt from 2005 Quality of 2005 Method Effective Not effective To be improved Review Survey Tools Improve Method Research Apply 2005 Method Deploy Develop Survey Tools Develop Survey Tools

8 Innovations 1. Outreach focus 2. An ICP quality assurance framework 3. Statistical capacity building 4. An ICP Book titled “Measuring the Size of the World Economy” 5. A National Accounts framework for ICP 6. A system of economic validation of price and expenditure data 7. Linking Regions through Global Core List Approach

9 Methodological Improvements A 600-item Global Core List for household consumption, equi-representative of all the regions Global core list for household consumption included in regional lists All countries in the world price the global core list items Equipment list equally representative across the regions and OECD-Eurostat countries Most Robust Linking Method Improved Quality of National Accounts & Prices New National Accounts framework Improved GDP expenditures Field prices expected to be more consistent with national- accounts-embedded prices A comprehensive quality assurance framework being finalized Improvements in other areas Improved methods for health and education A new method being designed for construction A 10-topic research agenda being pursued

Part III Institutional arrangements 10

OECD-EUROSTAT ICP Governance Structure UNSC Executive Board Global Office: Global Manager + Staff World Bank TAG AfDBADBCISECLACESCWAOECDE/STAT Countries Regional Advisory Boards 11

12 AfDBADBCISECLACESCWA ICP Global Office at World Bank PRICES & GDP EXP. OECD - EUROSTAT PPPS + CORE PRICES Country Participation and Flow of Data Global PPPS CORE PRICES + REGIONAL PPPs 52 Countries28 Countries9 Countries ?14 Countries PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. PRICES & GDP EXP. 48 Countries33 Countries OECD EUROSTAT More than 180 Countries

Part IV Countries’ activities 13

14 National Accounts Framework for the ICP The Framework Derived from SNA-1993 Set of tables and forms Piloted in 5 countries Step-by-step guidelines Division of work National Accountants Price Experts N.A. Activities Housing Public Education Public Health Expenditures – Price Consistency Main price survey Main List Prep. Equipment Private Education Private Health Comp. Of Empl. Construction Exp. Constr. pricing Other pricing

Input Vs Output Methods 15

Household Items 5-10 Housing Services 100 Health goods & Services 100 Equipment 5-20 Education Services 20 Government Occupations 20 Construction Items Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q3 Q4 Intra Country Validation Annual National Average Prices Price Surveys in

100 Household Cons. Basic Headings [BH] Housing BHs Health BHs Equipment BHs Education BHs Government BHs Construction BHs Country Activities: Estimation of GDP Expenditures NPISH BHs Other GDP components BHs Review GDP Classification Identify Data Sources Implement Commodity Flows where possible Estimate GDP & Main Aggregates Carry out N.A. work for comparison resistant areas Develop vector of 2011 GDP expenditures 17

Part V PPP aggregation & linking 18

Household Housing Health Equipment Education Government Construction Regional Level: PPP Computation.. Annual National Average Prices Regional Basic Heading PPPs.. Regional Aggregated PPPs All countries in a region 19

Household Construction Global Core List Approach.. Annual National Average Prices for Global Core Items Global Basic Heading PPPs.. Calibration Factors All countries in the world …... Regional Basic Heading PPPs.. Global PPPs All countries in the world 20

Part VI ICP data uses 21

Major Uses of PPP 22 Major uses of the PPP results at international and regional levels include: International poverty headcount index (World Bank) Comparing relative sizes of economies and estimating weighted averages of regional growth rates (IMF) Allocation of structural and cohesion funds (European Commission) Human Development Index (UNDP) Gender empowerment measures (UNDP) Health inequality assessment (World Health Organization) Assessing per capita expenditures in education (U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural Organization) Monitoring the welfare of children (U.N. Children’s Fund) Designing effective aid programs (International Organizations) Other uses include: Analysis of an economy’s comparative advantage on prices and expenditures of goods or services (Policy Makers) Evaluation of investment costs and industry growth potential across countries. PPP adjusted cost of living allowances (Multinational Corporations, Non-Government Organizations, International Development Agencies)

Part VII ICP 2011: methodological development & timeframe 23

TopicPriorityStatus 1. Owner-occupied housingHighAdopted 2. Measurement of government outputsHighAdopted 3. Survey frameworksHighAdopted 4. Construction PPPsHighApproach adopted Ongoing research 5. EducationHighOngoing research 6. Guidelines for the disaggregation of GDP expenditures into basic headings HighAdopted 7. Health servicesHighOngoing research 8. Global Core List for the main price surveyHighAdopted 9. Machinery and equipmentHighApproach adopted Ongoing development 10. Financial servicesLowAdopted 11. Net Exports and net purchases abroadLowAdopted 12. PPP-based poverty analysisLowOngoing research 13. Back-casting and PPP revisionsLowOngoing research 14. Linking regional PPPs into global resultsMediumOngoing research 15. Sub-national PPPsVery lowOngoing research 24 Methodological Development

25 July Timetable for the Development of Product Lists Submission of Country’s Input on GCL 15 August Oct. Sept. Submission of Matrix of Importance of GCL Items Submission of Consolidated Regional Lists Submission of Matrix of Importance of Regional Items

National Accounts Timetable Major aggregates for latest year possible J J N N BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible Values for all BHs N N J J J J N N Preliminary data for 2010 J J Major aggregates for 2011 BH values for 2011 J J O O M M J J J J O O M M M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November

Overall Timetable 1. Meetings Quality Assess. 3. Methodologies 4. Survey Prep. 5. Survey Implement. 6. Nat. Accounts 7. Regional Results 8. Global Results

Part VIII The Way Forward 28

29 MeetingsParticipants 18 th Executive Board MeetingAll Board Members 19 th MorningWorld Statistics DayOpenTAG members are invited to attend Each TAG member asked to propose 5-6 people to be invited AfternoonICP Users’ Conference80-100EB Members; TAG; RCs; Users; Bank and IMF; Academia; Press 20 th 4 th TAG Meeting40With Regional Coordinators as observers 21 st 22 nd 3 rd Regional Coordinators Meeting 20 October 2010 Meetings in Washington DC

30 A report to the United Nations Statistical Commission [UNSC] on country readiness for field and desk activities. The report will be prepared in November and discussed at the 42 nd session of the Statistical Commission in New York in February-March 2011 The main surveys for household consumption items will start in all the regions in the first quarter of 2011 The 4 th meeting of the ICP Executive Board will take place in April 2011 to review preliminary regional reports on the launch of the main surveys in the countries and decide any remedial measures where necessary The Way Forward

31 Thanks