Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment J M Fernandes, W Pavan and E Del Ponte

Introduction Southern states – dryland Spring types – grown during winter –spring season Warming temperatures Increase in precipitation 60´s 90´s

Wheat yield-reducing factors in Brazil Soil fertility (Al +++ ) Late Frost Sprouting Insects (BYDV) Fungal Diseases

Wheat diseases epidemiology Pathogen Host Environment (climate) If we know enough …..then we can model!

A Generic Disease Model Approach

Model Parameterization All disease parameters are read from a XML file Plant organs (disease targets) get from crop model

A Generic Disease Model Approach Epidemiological simulation model with three scales of spatial hierarchy Leaves-Plant-Field Lesions Expansion rate (Stochastic)

Linking Crop Models to Disease Models Crop models legacy (DSSAT) Disease simulation models Models written in different computers language Ability to run models directly in the Web

Linking Crop Models to Disease Models

Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT

Monitoring spore density in the air…

Spore cloud model

A simulation example... Cumulative infection risks Wet season Dry season

FHB Model Applications HTML / XML / JPG XHTML / XML HTTP Request Model Persistence Control View SDB Class Filter JSP ActionServlet Request Simulation Results Response SGDC WS CropSim SMPD Crop-FHB Model Climate Change Studies FHB Model On Season Warning System

Study area and climate dataset Passo Fundo ( 28°15'00"S, 52°25'12"W). Embrapa Wheat, (over 25 years of FHB records) A long-term daily climate dataset was available starting in1930´s Pergamino, Argentina

FHB - Multiple simulations Simulations were performed for a 30-day period starting June 1st. Infection periods were computed in a period of time from the 4 th to as long as the 20 th day following beginning of wheat heading (time of flowering). Exploratory analysis

FHB – Multiple Simulation Results, Passo Fundo, Brazil

FHB – Multiple Simulation Results Pergamino, Argentina

FHB x ENSO Phases Passo Fundo, BrazilPergamino, Argentina El NiñoLa Niña Wet Dry

Exploring South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Southeastern, SA

South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Passo Fundo, Brazil X X

South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Pergamino, Argentina X

Some highlights…. Minimum tillage plays a minor rule Weather is likely the driving force for epidemics Epidemics outbreaks are more frequent than before The environment is highly favorable to FHB development La Niña years are less favorable South Atlantic Surface Temperature may be useful for seasonal forecast.

Further research.... DBS Wheat Growth ModelWeather and climate forecast Panel of Experts Agronomists Economists Farmers Crop consultants Management Practices Cropsim -Wheat Cropsim -Wheat

FHB x Heading dates More Resistant Cultivars Chemical control Late Frost

Crop Failure

Thanks for your attention……