1. 1 Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Kelso, WA October 3, 2006 Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Kelso, WA October 3, 2006

2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

3. 3 global temperatures continue to run high http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

4. 4 The pattern is global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

5. 5 Current drought

7. 7 Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

8. 8 Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

9. 9 Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

10. 10 Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

11. 11

12. 12 Daily Temperatures +0.90ºC+0.81ºC

13. 13 2006 snow pack Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

14. 14 Our hot-dry summer For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) June-July- August was 3rd warmest on record For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) June-July- August was 3rd warmest on record

15. 15 28-day mean stream flow from the USGS

16. 16 Oct 1st estimated soil moisture percentiles Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washingt on.edu/forecast/monitor Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washingt on.edu/forecast/monitor

17. 17 Last year’s outlook The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

18. 18 IRI ENSO Forecast Summary Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENS O/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figur e

19. 19 Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

20. 20 Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

21. 21 Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20) DJF temp 2005-06 FMA temp 2006

22. 22 Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

23. 23 The forecast Cartoon obtained from: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.asp Cartoon obtained from: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.asp Forecasts … ?

24. 24 Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006

25. 25 The tropical ocean is warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

26. 26 El Niño is simmering Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid- May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

27. 27 The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center NOAA NCEP Forecast summaries

28. 28

29. 29 Average El Niño winter precip: 1916- 2003 Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas From http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas From http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

30. 30 Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” ( see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate ) Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 A Note on Last year… Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” ( see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate ) Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 A Note on Last year… (July-June averages) ForecastObserved Nino3.4 index-0.2 to +0.6-0.14 PDO index+0.2 to +.6+0.12

31. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND precip JFM precip http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

32. 32 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND temperature JFM temperature

33. 33 The Bottom line a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov