RAINS review 2004 The RAINS model: The approach

Cost-effectiveness needs integration Economic/energy development (projections) State of emission controls, available technologies, costs Atmospheric processes Environmental sensitivities

The RAINS model: Scenario analysis mode Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Costs Driving forces Health & environmental impact indicators

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework Primary PM Health impacts: - PM  SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3  via secondary aerosols Acidification  Eutrophication  - Ozone  Vegetation damage: - Ozone 

RAINS: A modular approach Environmental impacts

Integrated assessment in CAFE with the RAINS model Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION Driving forces BASELINE SCENARIO

Per-capita costs Scenario H1

Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

Cost-effectiveness vs. cost-benefit Cost-effectiveness: Find least-cost solution to achieve exogenously given environmental policy targets. Decision makers set targets and decide about appropriate balance with costs Cost-benefit analysis: The optimal balance between costs and measures is internalized by the model. No room for exogenous decision maker. Consensus on quantification of benefits required.

The cost-effectiveness approach Decision makers Decide about Ambition level (environmental targets) Level of acceptable risk Willingness to pay Models help to separate policy and technical issues: Models Identify cost-effective and robust measures: Balance controls over different countries, sectors and pollutants Regional differences in Europe Side-effects of present policies Maximize synergies with other air quality problems Search for robust strategies

System boundaries Driving forces of air pollution (energy use, transport, agriculture) are driven by other issues, and have impacts on other issues too. Critical boundaries: –Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change policies –Agricultural policies –Other air pollution impacts on water and soil (nitrogen deposition over seas, nitrate in groundwater, etc.) –Quantification of AP effects where scientific basis is not robust enough

Interactions between emission controls for air pollution and greenhouse gases A “sneak preview” of the RAINS extension to GHGs

Reference case (REF) “Pre-Kyoto” energy projections for 2020 Air pollution control according to recent EU legislation (NEC Directive, LCP Directive, Auto- Oil, etc.)

Scenario 1 CO 2 control in the power sector Cost-effective measures to reduce CO 2 emissions in the power sector by 15 % Subject to exogenous electricity demand Recent EU legislation for air pollutants

CO 2 reduction measures applied in Scenario 1

Changes in emissions compared to REF, EU-23 CO 2 [Mt ] NO x [kt] SO 2 [kt] PM2.5 [kt] Netherlands’ total emissions (grey) are shown for reference

Emission control costs (billion €/yr, compared to REF) Control ofScenario 1 CO CH 4 0 GHGs+3.5 SO NO x -0.3 PM-0.6 Air pollutants-2.3 Total+1.2

Differences in premature deaths (cases/year, compared to REF)

Scenario 2 Multi-GHG control In each country, the equivalent CO 2 reductions of Scenario 1 are achieved with CO 2 and CH 4 controls Recent EU legislation for air pollutants

CO 2 reduction measures applied in Scenarios 1 and 2

CH 4 reduction measures applied in Scenario 2

Changes in emissions compared to REF, EU-23 CO 2 [Mt ] NO x [kt] SO 2 [kt] PM2.5 [kt] Netherlands’ total emissions (black) are shown for reference CH 4

Emission control costs (billion €/yr, compared to REF) Control ofScenario 1Scenario 2 CO CH GHGs SO NO x PM Air pollutants Total

Scenario 3 Increased biomass use in households Shift to biomass use for domestic heating: 10% of light fuel oil is replaced by biomass

Netherlands’ total emissions (black) are shown for reference CO 2 [Mt ] NO x [kt] SO 2 [kt] PM2.5 [kt] Changes in emissions compared to REF, EU-23 CH 4

Differences in premature deaths (cases/year, compared to REF)