ESA Activities in Space Weather A. Glover1, E. Daly1, R. Marsden2 Space Environments and Effects Section, D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC. Research and Scientific Support Department D/Sci,ESA/ESTEC ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Overview Background and Scope within ESA D/TEC, D/Sci, D/HME, D/Ops, D/EOP, Galileo Space Weather Applications Initiative SWENET Status and Achievements Space Situational Awareness Related Activities – SEENoTC Next Steps ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Space Weather Definition: "conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health." Some Space Weather Effects.. Satellites affected by radiation, plasma, atmosphere, particulates; Astronauts - ISS, future exploration missions; Radiation hazards to air crew and avionics; Ground power outages from currents induced in lines; Disruption to communications relying on the ionosphere; Disruption of navigation satellite signals (GPS - Galileo); Prospecting; Climate; ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Space Weather Interests within ESA ESA is interested in space weather as both a provider and user of space weather data Pre-mission space environment analysis and recommendations for operational procedures carried out at ESTEC (D/TEC) Operational use of space weather data and services in support of ESA missions at ESOC & ESAC (D/Ops) with ESTEC support New data generated by ESA missions, either as primary goal or in the form of radiation monitor data ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Science Missions Supporting Space Weather Interests SOHO extension to 2009, plus bonus mission Cluster extension until 2008 Double star extended to 2007 Ulysses, 3rd polar pass extension until 2008 Ulysses Radiation Monitors onboard XMM, Integral and Rosetta spacecraft also provide valuable Information on the local space environment Soho Cluster & Double Star ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Upcoming Missions Radiation monitors: Herschel, Planck, LPF … Solar Orbiter (2015) BepiColombo (2013) Cross-Scale Multiscale Coupling in Space Plasmas mission selected by SSAC Oct ‘07 as Cosmic Vision candidate mission Proba 2 (2008) SWAP and LYRA payloads Radiation monitors: Herschel, Planck, LPF … ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Earth Observation SWARM: Magnetic Field Mission (launch: 2010-2011, lifetime 5yrs) Core dynamics and geodynamo processes 3-D electrical conductivity of the mantle Aims to monitor and separate the various contributions to the Earth’s magnetic field including disturbances: Magnetospheric and ionospheric currents Electromagnetic forcing of the upper atmosphere MetOp Carries SEM-2 radiation monitor Inclined sun synchronous orbit, 817km ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Galileo Radiation environment will be harsh as the constellation will fly through the heart of the radiation belts Signal propagation effects caused by the ionosphere Giove-A radiation environment monitors Merlin, CEDEX energetic proton and ion detectors, an internal charging monitor, RADFETs and experimental dose-rate photodiodes Giove-B (launch 2008) will carry SREM environment monitor Galileo IOV will carry radiation monitors Full constellation still tbc ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Manned Spaceflight Support to ISS Ops collaboration between EAC and NASA/JSC DESIRE R&D project to characterise environment in Columbus module Study of radiation environment key driver in development of exploration missions R and D studies looking towards radiation protection for exploration REMSIM: Radiation Exposure and Mission Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions SEPEM: Improved statistical models and new physics-based modelling of the helio-radial variation ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

The ESA Space Weather Applications Initiative ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop 1999-2001: Feasibility studies of Space Weather Programme 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team (SWWT) 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management 2001: Start preparation of ESA-SWAPP, COST724 2003: ESA SWAPP starts 2003: COST 724 starts 2004: First European Space Weather Week 2007: Where we stand now ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

The Space Weather Applications Pilot Project Sample the market for space weather services Development of a range of individual pilot services (SDAs) built on user requirements plus a supporting network structure and portal. ~5MEuro investment (2MEuro from ESA/GSP) Questions: users?, valuable services?, need for specific space elements?, value of coordinated approach?, organisational requirements…? ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Service Demonstration: SWENET Independent Cost and Benefit Assessment Ionospheric Effects: 12 SDAs… SWENET: Network and support architecture for SDAs Ground Effects: 12 SDAs… Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects: 6 SDAs… Space Weather European NETwork ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Infrastructure Capabilities Centralised access to a wide range of user driven space weather services and data Central access point to the pilot project SDAs Large data repository Capability to search and combine data from different sources Graphical display and data analysis tools Overview of the latest SDA data and space weather indices Daily reports, alerts and data sets via email Approximate distribution of active users: http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/swenet ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

SWENET Perspective ESA/GSP support for service development concluded 2006 Majority of SDA services have identified funding for service continuation to 2008 + .. SWENET Portal maintenance and validation phase continuing Inclusion of new SDAs Validation of new data and services: demonstration of added value Improvement of data analysis via portal capabilities Consultation with SDA community on future requirements Usage statistics (Based on Jan – Jul 2007): 4000 visitors/month 50,000 pages served (not including search engines) SDA community continue to meet and collaborate. Next SWENET meeting Splinter 1 this afternoon Coordination with national activities and other groups e.g. ISES, COST 724, COST 296, NOAA/SEC (now SWPC), ILWS End Users Task Group… ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Benefit Data By Industry Growth indicated by industry note airlines included in ionospheric & consequently strong increase in benefit when automated landing taken up ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Net Benefit Trends LoS1: relies on continued GB Networks and provides mainly Nowcasts. LoS3: Has low external Dependencies, is more costly, Provides forecasts and Ultimately larger benefits. LoS2: Potentially high benefits But also high risks. Permanent hitch-hiker solution c.f. GOES/SEM Arrangement could reduce risks ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Strategic Issues impacts of SW on Europe’s strategic space assets (Galileo, GMES, telecoms EO..) impacts of SW on European space infrastructure (launch, environment monitoring (including situational awareness), manned spaceflight) impacts on social infrastructure and economy (energy supply and distribution, emergency relief systems) Security issues (HF comms and radar) …. These benefits difficult to quantify but report notes space weather services have both potential economic and strategic benefit for Europe ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Space Situational Awareness ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Framework/Context Space Situation Awareness is a concept that has grown out of the increasing dependence of the modern world on space systems – telecom, navigation, surveillance, etc. Concept originates with US military – but civilian systems (particularly in Europe) are just as susceptible – Europe needs to develop both policy and capacity. ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Motivation for action on Space Weather Recent initiatives have revealed both space weather needs and skills bases in Europe Development of a more coordinated European approach could be used to strengthen international cooperation & exchange on basis of partnership. At the same time there is a perceived need to build a European framework in the context of Space Situational Awareness. Space weather is seen as one of three axes for Space Situational Awareness : Survey, Tracking, Imaging Space weather (space environment monitoring) At present it is proposed to introduce at the next ESA Ministerial Council an ESA Optional Programme for Space Situational Awareness which may include an element of space weather ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Possible Content Develop an ESA-led space weather initiative, including the establishment of a European Centre for Space Weather Services as part of an optional Space Situational Awareness programme The initiative would aim to: Provide a focal point for coordinating ongoing European activities of the kind initiated in the framework of the Space Weather Applications Pilot Project and SWENET Provide a stable nucleus for the development, testing and deployment of future space weather services in Europe Proposal in preparation Ongoing community consultation process See splinter meeting on Wednesday afternoon 14:00 ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Space Environments and Effects Network of Technical Competences (SEENoTC) ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Overview of SEENoTC Responsibilities Goals: to reinforce the coordination of existing and planned space environments and effects related activities in Europe, implementation of a coherent European programme of activities in the domain, Domain: energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems, payloads and humans; natural and induced plasma environments and their interactions with spacecraft, and resulting effects on systems and payloads Explicitly excluded are space debris, micrometeoroid and thermal environments. Explicitly included are space weather effects on spacecraft ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Organisation Working Group Steering Board National representatives responsible for collecting inputs from communities Responsible for drawing up roadmaps and identifying areas for coordination and financial support SWWT Chairman is a member of the WG, responsible for making recommendations from this community Steering Board National representatives from agencies and funding bodies Approve roadmaps annually Supports activities that build on the main coordination goals of the network ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Summary Space weather interests a broad cross section of ESA from missions geared to furthering our understanding of underlying phenomena through to protecting ESA spacecraft from its effects The SWENET network provides an operational network of user-oriented space weather services Clear evidence of interest from industry Input on future requirements solicited from SDA community Cost and benefit analysis indicates significant potential growth in the market for space weather services in several areas Strong community support for maintaining SWENET demonstrated at ESWWs Work in progress in the area of Space Situational Awareness Scope for coordination of activities geared towards space weather effects on spacecraft via the SEENoTC National activities developing: e.g. in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain… ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

Next Steps Short Term: Longer Term: Next meeting of SWENET community: Splinter 1 this afternoon Next consultation meeting on SSA: Splinter 3 Wednesday Longer Term: Work will continue on an SSA proposal into 2008 ESA to further investigate how to build on successful outcome of the space weather applications pilot project In parallel, ESA’s normal R and D programmes will continue to support space environment related applications activities. Continue and expand policy of flying radiation monitors on ESA s/c, ensuring processing and full exploitation of these data Continued collaboration with other national and international space weather initiatives ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007