1. Monday 13 th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project Service Development Activity (SDA) Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS) Final Presentation Nigel.Wheadon@baesystems.com Tel: +44 (0)1245 242143 Advanced Technology Centre

2. Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 2 Contents -Summary of the SDA Objectives -Summary of the User Requirements -Evaluation of User Satisfaction -Sustainability of the Service -Improvement of the Services

3. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 3 Summary of SDA Objectives To enhance the existing DIFS service by implementing an improved, more flexible application for the provision of space weather forecasting for HF users To develop and implement a new service for SATCOM communicators. To make full use of the information available via ESA SWENET and other online solar, geophysical and ionospheric data sources. To provide these services from a flexible automated system which imports near real- time data, generate forecasts and publishes via email and www. To validate the forecasts. To promote the provision of services for HF and SATCOM users.

4. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 4 Summary of User Needs (1) – Sky-wave HF Issues F2 is the layer most important for HF comms, however: F region is highly variable even on a day-to-day basis Critical Frequencies (foF2), 20% variability about the monthly median and > 40% variability during ionospheric storms Users’ Requirements HF Sky-wave disturbance forecasting capability to support HF Propagation prediction codes Make use of existing (& new) data services Daily forecasts More frequency up-dates (6 hourly) Global forecasts Regional forecasts Distribution via email Forecasts published on a web-site Provide a deployable system (design goal) Channel Assignment Modified Channel Assignment

5. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 5 Summary of User Needs (2) – SATCOM disturbance warning Issues A radio signal traversing the ionosphere will be modified by irregularities in the electron density - Scintillation Users’ Requirements Forecasts of major & minor disturbances Global forecasts Frequent up-dates Email & web access Peak Activity occurs -Equatorial latitudes - Post sunset until midnight -Auroral latitudes - Post mid-night and early morning Effects Satellite communication signals suffer degradation Receivers (Comms, GPS) lose lock

6. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 6 Evaluation of User Satisfaction In summary we have: Enhanced the original HF forecasting service providing: -more flexible import of space weather data (solar, magnetic, ionospheric) -generation of globally & regional forecasts -multiple forecasts, both at 24 and 6 hourly intervals -forecast data storage so post-operational analysis could be carried out -Improved distribution of forecasts (email, www) Developed a SATCOM forecasting service which predicts the global scintillation (fading) levels on a zonal and sector basis for the next 24 hour period Feedback from the users has been positive and provided a qualitative assessment: Users have reported that on a day to day basis that the forecasts provide operators with the level of fidelity and required accuracy to improve their frequency management process and they are better prepared to adapt communications operations to the changing environment. Access to timely forecasts (previously may have waited up to 12 hrs for information The 6 hourly forecasts are better suited to their needs and meet their operational requirements of the HF sky-wave communicators The benefits of the regional forecasts has already been exploited on exercise

7. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 7 Sustainability of the Service Factors Ensuring Sustainability Strong UK customer base Service is fully automated & requires limited resources for continuous day- to-day operation Flexible access to numerous space weather data sources using internet Provision of multiple external data sources (e.g. SIDC, SEC, IPS, RAL) is essential to the continued, resilient operation of the DIFS Effort: Routine 5 minutes a day Effort: Maintenance 15 minutes a week Business Plan Increased awareness programme Already started on a programme of presentations to sub- organisations and agencies within the existing customer base Presentations to international organisations with links to existing customer base Exploit functionality linking existing BAE SYSTEMS HF prediction applications with the Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS) Market benefits of the field deployable DIFS service provided on a laptop to support existing customer base Fully funded service provision with main customer Options for additional services (regional DIFS on an ‘needs’ basis) HF Forecast SATCOM Forecast

8. Advanced Technology Centre Monday 13th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved. 8 Prospective for Improvement of the Service Analysis of the forecasts has allowed a set of quantitative metrics to be established which act as an initial baseline benchmark against which future improvements can be compared. Further work will be needed over a longer period and for a variety of different ionospheric conditions to establish the complete metrics. Improvements to SATCOM forecasting - Additional user feedback would help to further validate the results and provide valuable information on the accuracy & relevance of the forecasts. - Enhancements to the existing Global Ionospheric Scintillation Model (GISM) incl. a more accurate morphological model would provide better forecasts - Improvements to the disturbance warning algorithms to take account of real-time solar weather data e.g. B z, V sw. Improvements to HF Forecasting - Improve current near real-time empirical algorithms - Development & implementation of real-time physical models for disturbance warning should be explored - Development of extensions to support automatic link establishment systems

9. Monday 13 th November 2005. GSY/050388/104764 © BAE SYSTEMS 2005. All Rights Reserved ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project Service Development Activity (SDA) Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS) Final Presentation Nigel.Wheadon@baesystems.com Tel: +44 (0)1245 242143 Advanced Technology Centre