1. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Introduction to the ESA Space Weather Pilot Project A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands C. de Matos and F. Ongaro EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris

2. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Historical Background of ESA involvement 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather. 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe. 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop. 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme. 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team. 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected (Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis). 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other… 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts. 2003: COST 724 starts. 2005: COST 296 starts (follows from COST 271).

3. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Where we stand in Nov 2005 Overall European harmonisation/coordination: SWWT Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724).Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, COST724). Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe - SWENET (Starts: April 2003 – ends: Mars 2006). International relations: ISES, CAWSES, COSPAR PSW & PRB, IHY, ILWS.

4. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Coordinated Service Investigation Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET) : –Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs): 16 ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on 1 st April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities. ommon support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. – Common support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling. Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA). Investigation of future sustainable structure for service provision.

5. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 SWENET as a sample for study Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2  € from ESA GSP. Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme. Questions to address: –users (and their requirements)? –current realistic(sustainable) services? –Need for specific space elements? –Value of coordinated approach? –Overall organisation requirements?

6. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Users and user domains (in EUROPE) Broad community of users (incl. military).Broad community of users (incl. military). About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects which are related to:About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects which are related to: 1.External geomagnetic field variation 2.Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav). 3.Direct space environment effects on spacecraft. Some SDA’s are general purpose services with broad class of users (usually solar/indices,…).

7. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 External geomagnetism in Europe Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military. SW Service: ~? M€; ground based magnetometers + ACE. 10 Y Market trend: remains of same order. Need of space measurements: –may be not for ground effects, –speculative for global scale and/or forecast service, –major need for Solar wind monitoring. => Case for a SW monitor?

8. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Ionospheric effects on radio signal in Europe Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach).Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach). SW Service: ~? M€/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency networks. 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down stream growth). Need of space measurements: –would allow global coverage and (possibly) forecast. => Case for a LEO constellation?

9. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005

10. Direct effects on space systems in Europe Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight.Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight. SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data. 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new techno, manned space flight). Need for space measurements: – major (no serious alternative). => Case for monitoring in critical regions?- Very likely.

11. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005

12. Scientific monitoring Users: All (including scientific communities).Users: All (including scientific communities). SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using local and world wide resources (e.g., geomag and solar indices or recurrent features, e.g, CME). 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (sw market, new challenges: global change, space pollution, etc…). Need for space measurements: – major for L1 and other critical region/components. => Case for: SW L1 monitor, CME, EUV, X, Rad Belt,etc… ?

13. ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Organisation of the Review/Discussion Today: –SWENET infrastructure (P. Beltrami, Eta-max) –Ionospheric effects session (reporter: L. Cander, RAL). –Effects on aircraft and spacecraft (reporter: A. Hilgers, ESA) –Ground effects (reporter: R. Pirjola, FMI & CNS). –Solar monitoring and magnetic indices (reporter: M. Messeroti, TSO). –Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA) All the week: Scientific sessions and Business meetings (COST, SWWT-TWG) Friday: Agency activities – Round table – SWWT meeting.