Central and eastern Europe: Outlook and expectations for the next 18 months Matthew Sherwood Senior editor/economist Deputy, Country Risk Services June 2002

Topics  Economic forecasts  Business environment  EU accession

Central Europe is looking good  Central European growth weathers the EU slowdown  Inflows of FDI fueling growth, productivity and restructuring  Fiscal deficits remain a concern  Current-account deficits also a potential problem  Inflation heads towards convergence with the EU

Respectable GDP growth Source: EIU Country Data % real change

Budget deficits boom Source: EIU Country Data % of GDP

Inflation: towards convergence av % change Source: EIU Country Data

Twin deficit problems return? Source: EIU Country Data % of GDP

Inflows of FDI remain strong US$, bn Source: EIU Country Data

Per capita FDI paints another picture US$ Source: EIU Country Data

Eastern Europe is left behind?  Growth is no longer a problem  Budgets actually look good  Inflation has yet to be tamed  Current-account balances: “left-outs” versus the former Soviet Union  Where’s the foreign investment?

Strong growth in eastern Europe Source: EIU Country Data GDP, % real change

Budget balances: a mixed performance Source: EIU Country Data % of GDP

Inflation: Much to be done CPI, av % change Source: EIU Country Data

Current-account balances Source: EIU Country Data % of GDP

Per capita FDI inflows remain paltry US$ Source: EIU Country Data

EU enlargement: What could go wrong? Enlargement in 2004: The dates Developments to watch  negotiations run late  Ireland rejects the Nice treaty  public opinion turns against enlargement Risk scenarios Implications for euro-zone accession

The Commission’s Road Map Start neg. Luxembourg 6 Start neg. Helsinki 6 End of negotiations Ratification & referenda Accession EP election

Danger points Start neg. Luxembourg 6 Start neg. Helsinki 6 End of negotiations Ratification & referenda Accession EP election Ireland rejects Nice treaty Ireland rejects Nice treaty again Negotiations run late Accession treaty opposed EU accession rejected Accession?

Negotiations: The status quo Agreements on most policy “chapters”, including migration, environment, competition, tax… Money issues left to the end: farm aid, regional subsidies Implementation & enforcement lagging

What is behind the budget row? AC-10 as % of EU-15

What’s behind the budget row? -2- CAP:  Farm subsidies to be phased in over ten years  Starting at just 25% of EU Rural development spending only 10% of CAP budget  No final EU position until after German election New members could be net contributors to EU budget? Structural funds:  Regional aid phased in over three years  All AC-10 eligible for regional aid (per capita GDP < 75% EU av.)  Aid flows capped at 4% of GDP Big budget row postponed until 2006?

Nice treaty EU summit in Nice in 2000 agrees on institutional changes necessary for enlargement:  adjustment of voting weights in the Council of Ministers  reducing the number of portfolios (and Commissioners) in the Brussels bureaucracy Ireland rejects Nice treaty in June 2001 May do so again in second referendum in October/November 2002

What happens if Ireland says no? Scenario 1  Institutional provisions pasted into the Accession treaty  Accession treaty ratified But:  Political setback at a time when enl. talks are in their “hot” phase  Loss of political momentum, Euroscepticism è Accession likely to be delayed Scenario 2  Institutional questions handed over to the Convention, which prepares the next Intergovernmental Conference (IGC)  ICG concludes in 2004?  New treaty ratified by 2005? è Enlargement 2006 or later?

Public opinion: The EU-15 Accession treaty needs to be ratified by 15 EU parliaments (and EP) A majority is against EU enlargement in France, Austria, Germany... Fears of migration despite 5-7 year transition period Rise of the far right could further complicate accession talks or draw out ratification process

Public opinion: EU-15 Is EU enlargement beneficial?

Public opinion: The candidates Accession treaty needs to be ratified by parliaments Most (all?) EU candidates will hold referenda on EU accession after the end of the accession negotiations Public opinion is still in favour of EU accession in most countries Rising Euroscepticism Resentment against EU attempts to get enlargement “on the cheap”

Public opinion: The candidates

Risk assessment Negotiations run late (high risk) Ireland rejects the Nice treaty (high risk) Public opinion turns against enlargement (moderate risk) è High risk that EU enlargement will be delayed until 2005 è Moderate (but growing) risk of longer delays è Euro-zone membership in unlikely