2006 HURRICANE FORECAST “THE HISTORY OF STORMS IN NEW ENGLAND DEMONSTRATES THAT THE WEST INDIAN (CAPE VERDE) HURRICANES MUST BE PLACED IN THE “TO-BE-EXPECTED” CLASS OF CATASTROPHE AND THAT THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED POSSIBILITY THAT ONE MAY OCCUR IN ANY YEAR” TAKEN FROM: HURRICANE FLOODS OF 1938 U.S.G.S. WATER SUPPLY PAPER #867 PUBLISHED Hurricane Forecast Slide 1 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

HURRICANES Hurricane of Hurricane of Hurricane of Hurricane of Hurricane of Edna (1954) 7. Carol (1954) 8. Donna (1960) 9. Gerda (1969) 10. Agnes (1972) 11. Belle (1976) 12. Gloria (1985) 13. Bob (1991) 14. Floyd (1999) 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST HURRICANE TRACKS HURRICANE HISTORY 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 2 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

HURRICANE LANDFALL POTENTIAL BY CATEGORY IN NEW ENGLAND - NEXT 20 YEARS CATEGORYPROBABILITY (Frequency)  CAT. I WINDS MPH250% ( 8 Years)  CAT. II WINDS MPH125% (16 Years)  CAT. III WINDS MPH 54% (37 Years)  CAT. IV WINDS MPH 2% (1,000 Years)  CAT. V WINDS > 155 MPH 0.4% (5,000 Years) HURRICANE POTENTIAL 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 3 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

NAMES FOR THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON AlbertoHeleneOscar BerylIsaacPatty ChrisJoyceRafael DebbyKirkSandy ErnestoLeslieTony FlorenceMichealValerie GordonNadineWilliam HURRICANE NAMES 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 4 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

NOAA NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST JUNE 1ST - NOVEMBER 30 TH CATEGORY # OF STORMS (NORMAL)ACTUAL??  NAMED STORMS ( 9.6)1 (Thus Far)  HURRICANES8 - 10(5.9)  INTENSE HURRICANES*4 - 6(2.3) u TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 195%(100%) u MAJOR HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES* uEAST COAST 64%(31%)Florida to Maine uGULF COAST47%(30%)Texas to Florida Panhandle *Category III and Above, taken from the 2006 Seasonal forecast provided by Dr. William Grey, Colorado State University, 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 5 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE POTENTIAL THE CATASTROPHIC IMPACT OF A STRONG CATEGORY III HURRICANE ON CONNECTICUT AND NEW ENGLAND 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 6 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner February 28, 2000 The Connecticut Fire Academy WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CATEGORY III HURRICANE MPH MPH MPH MPH NEW YORK NEW JERSEY RHODE ISLAND CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSSETTS PENNSYLVANIA VERMONT MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE MPH

MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL AUTHORITIES Arthur J. Rocque Jr., Commissioner  STAMFORD BRIDGEPORT OLD SAYBROOK GROTON mph mph 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 8 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

$41.2 B $30.9 B $13.7 B $3.8 B $1.4 B$1.2 B $90 M $0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 Billions of Dollars CTNYMARIVTNHNJME Direct Economic Losses to Buildings: Total Losses Property Damage LossesBusiness Interruption Losses $92.6 Billion $398 M 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST 2006 Hurricane Forecast Slide 9 June 14, 2006 DEMHS CONNECTICUT HURRICANE CONFERENCE

2006 HURRICANE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT Douglas Glowacki Program Specialist Department of Emergency Management & Homeland Security 25 Sigourney Street Hartford, Connecticut Phone;