1. Great New England Hurricane Nicole Hartford

2.  The hurricane formed south of the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, 1938.  At this time, New England had not seen a significant hurricane since 1859.

3. Forecasting in 1938  In 1938, the United States were lagging behind in forecasting compared to England. Forecasters had poor training, and systematic planning was not used.  Forecasters did not have the tracking mechanisms we have today, including satellites. Instead, they relied on observations from people in the field and ships at sea.

4. September 12 September 14 Hurricane moving slowly westward and increasing intensity September 17 Hurricane is gaining momentum. 850 mb height gradient and rainfall are increasing.

5. September 20 The storm was categorized as a Category 5 Hurricane by the time it was centered east of the Bahamas. A trough through the east coast of the United States pushed the hurricane eastward so that it did not hit Florida. However, a second trough over Bermuda prevented the hurricane from moving too far eastward out to sea. The hurricane was squeezed between the two systems, increasing the forward speed to 70 mph, the highest forward velocity ever recorded. This increase in motion increased wind speed to the east of the eye. TROUGH

6. September 21 September 22 The hurricane weakened slightly by the morning of September 21. Because of its fast movement, the hurricane did not have time to lose significant intensity due to the colder waters in the north. Once it made landfall, and moved through Vermont and New Hampshire, it began to lose tropical characteristics and finally deteriorate.

7. Forecast Errors  Two days before the hurricane made landfall on Long Island, the storm was predicted to hit Florida. On the day of landfall, the United States Weather Bureau underestimated the intensity of the storm, calling it a tropical storm, as well as how far north it would travel. The Washington office that was making these predictions did not send any hurricane information to the New York office.

8. Impact  Most of the damage was due to storm surge and wind.  The hurricane caused an estimated $308 million in damage, which would be about $4.8 billion today when adjusted for inflation.  Approximately 600 people were reported dead and another 700 injured.

9. Flooding

10. Wind Damage

11. Agricultural Impact  The fishing industry was destroyed, as was half of the apple crop for the season.  Over 35% of New England’s forestry was affected. The Northeastern Timber Salvage Administration (NETSA) was established following the storm due to the fire hazard from fallen timber.