Matteo Pedercini Millennium Institute, Washington D.C. System Dynamics for Urban Sustainability Analysis

1.Introduction to the Millennium Institute 2.System Dynamics (SD) for urban planning 3.T21 integrated SD model 4.Prospective for urban application of T21 5.Conclusions

T 21 Countries MI Partner MI Head Office M 3 Countries MEG Countries SD for Urban Planning1

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2 Major Delays Accumulation

??? Output Input SD for Urban Planning2

Support policy analysis on mid-long term development issues from an integrated perspective Global, regional, national, (urban) challenges:  Food security and poverty  Climate Change and natural disasters  Resources, emissions and sustainability  Equity and vulnerability Overview of T213

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MI’s T21 applications are grounded in the principle of Integration: (1)Integration of social, economic, and environmental dimensions of development (2)Integration of knowledge and input from different sources and stakeholders (3)Integration of planning instruments across sectors, time horizons, and spatial scales Overview of T213

Multiple goals in multiple sectors: Macroeconomy Agriculture Industry Poverty Infrastructure Education Health Vision Overview of T213

What policy impact/contribution from each? Macroeconomy Agriculture Industry Poverty Infrastructure Education Health Vision Overview of T213

What interactions across sectors? Macroeconomy Agriculture Industry Poverty Infrastructure Education Health Vision Overview of T213

How much draw on resource base? Macroeconomy Agriculture Industry Poverty Infrastructure Education Health Vision and Sustain ability Overview of T213

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4T21 for Urban Planning Scaling and adapting T21 to urban level 100 Smarter cities – application with Huangshi and Xiamen Treatment of spatial dimension Data availability Capacity development and institutionalization

5Conclusions T21 is an integrated simulation model that helps managing complexity in policy-making: Based on system dynamics Support open and inclusive planning Facilitate the identification of effective policies Integrates social, economic, and environmental factors

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