Census & Demographic Analysis for Household Formation –The Luton Experience Eddie Holmes Research Information Officer Luton Borough Council

Overview Demographic analysis for population & household projections Projections proposed to be used in the Luton & Central Bedfordshire Housing Market Area SHMA

Luton Background Census, Luton’s population 202,300, 10% growth since 2001, 2012 MYE 205,800 74,300 households, with an average HH size of Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 –Reverse of national trend Mayhew Harper study considered there to be 77,000 households in Luton in 2010 Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people Strong population growth in inner areas LBC considered pre 2011 MYE to be under-estimating population but the gap is closing High population density and limited space to build

Luton Background High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census (Mayhew Harper Associates) High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census Large South Asian population High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and dialects spoken New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration 50% of town not born in UK 25,000 people in Luton arrived in UK since 2004

Luton Population Growth

Census Issues 2001 Census 84% response rate in Luton –under enumeration and under-estimation of population (90% in 2011) Net migration figure does not reflect experience of town and also Mayhew-Harper study of 2010 Official figures have struggled to capture demographic change – over-crowding households School roll projections affected by high number of new migrants such as Polish and African children

Forecasting Scenarios ONS components of change used for migration to be consistent with neighbouring authorities Some concerns with these data –IPS and under-estimation issues nationally Luton population starting point 2,000 higher than official population figure Five Year, eight year and ten year averages of ONS components of change for internal and international migration Migration rate used for future projections to match ONS methodology POPGROUP and Derived forecast model used

Projection Results

Projected Household Formation from CLG 2011 interim rates

Issues from HH Projections Growth in lone parent with dependent children Households Growth in ‘other households’ Issue in Luton with multiple occupancy and growth in multi-generational households How well are the projections capturing this?

Wider Issues Luton has estimated capacity for 6,000 households over next 20 years – all three projection scenarios well above this Overcrowding: Should HH projections be trend or policy based? Will migration continue at current levels Housing benefit issue –Luton is one of the cheapest areas in the region Duty to cooperate

Concluding remarks Overview of population & household projections within an urban area and highly diverse population Consultancy work – we have been commissioned to do work in a more rural area with a military population - alternative scenarios based on economic forecasts Available for forecasting and demographic work Any questions?

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