1. Scotland – Census and Household Estimates and Projections
Esther Roughsedge,
NRS Household Estimates and Projections branch
BSPS: Estimating future household formation
16 December 2013

2. Household size in Scotland, 1961 to 2011
Large changes in trends over the last 50 years (not just an effect of economic downturn)
Household size in Scotland, 1961 to 2011
Source: census

3. The rate of household growth has slowed since 2007
Annual increase in the number of households
in Scotland between 2002 and 2012
Source: NRS household estimates

4. NRS household estimates and projections
Household estimates are based on Council Tax figures.
Household projections are based on population projections, with household trends projected from last 2 censuses.
Included variant projections, including ‘alternative headship’ variant, projecting lower household growth.

5. Council tax-based household estimates vs 2011 Census
2011 Census estimate: 0.2% above the NRS household estimate
Most councils were within 2%

6. Household projections & census

7. Future plans
Incorporate 3 censuses into the projections, to reflect the changing trends better.
Produce projections from:
1991 and 2001
2001 and 2011
Combine, weighting the figures.
This allows us to make adjustments in future projections, if appropriate.

8. Weightings - options
Could choose the weights that give closest results to:
Survey figures on household types;
Household estimates.
Could try to minimise discrepancies between estimates and projections at council level.
Need to be able to justify how the weights are devised.

9. Any questions. Any comments would be very welcome
Any questions? Any comments would be very welcome! For more info, contact: Tel (0131)