The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project (SPSLCMP) Developing into the future Geoff Crane Australian Tsunami Warning System Development Team Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne/Brisbane

Geoff Crane Meteorologist Australian Bureau of Meteorology National Manager Tsunami Warning Services – now Ocean Services Section Weather and Ocean Services Branch Australian Bureau of Meteorology Warning Systems Specialist – ATWS Project Regional Director NSW Deputy Regional Director Qld Head – Brisbane TCWC WMO consultant – established RA V TCC SP

Chair of WG 5 (Warning Systems) ( ) UNESCO IOC ICG/IOTWS IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission ICG Intergovernmental Coordination Group IOTWS Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System WG 1 Seismology WG 2 Sea level monitoring WG 3 Risk assessment WG 4 Tsunami scenario modelling WG 5 Tsunami Warning Systems WG 6 Outreach – public education and awareness

Australian Government intends to continue the SPSLCMP - details being discussed. Phase 4 formally ends 31 December 2010 but likely to be extended depending on progress on formulating Phase 5. Phase 5 is likely to resemble the sea level monitoring and related data/tidal services provided by Phase 4. SPSLCMP

It is expected that some synergies would be sought with other regional projects funded by AusAID, e.g. Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) but that would be unlikely to impact ongoing network operations and derived services. A regional stakeholders meeting, involving RMSDs and probably Lands & Survey people, will be held as part of the Phase 5 planning. Dates not certain although possibly 8-10 November.

The refurbishment of the sea level observing network (12+1 stations) is committed and funded and is progressing. Will be implemented over the next 2 years. The additional station (Suva) is to be designated as a training site for the project and provide ongoing maintenance skill building in the region in the longer term. /\ \ /

Development of Tsunami Warnings for Australia and the Indian Ocean Geoff Crane National Manager Tsunami Warning Services Australian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne / Brisbane

Replacement of some sea level monitoring stations and a few additional stations Installation of real time communications Further improvement to comms required within the next 12 months – change to frequencies Synergies between the ATWS Project and the SPSLCMP Installation of tsunameter network

Sea level monitoring stations – 42 operating, 1 not operating (Port Stanvac, SA)

DEEP OCEAN TSUNAMETERS - 2 in IO, 2 in Coral Sea, 2 in Tasman Sea, 1 demo

Tsunameters Leading edge technology. Very sensitive sensors – detect 2cm change in 5km depth. Operate in harsh environment. Extraordinary challenge to keep the network operating. Provide very good signal of the tsunami but require expert interpretation. They are part of an integrated system and augment info from other sources. Recent critical report in US press about unreliability.

X X X X X X Non-op on X Others - all unserviceable

Raleigh waves (seismic) Positive tsunami arrived maybe a few minutes before predicted arrival time 0.12 m crest to trough 0.06 m amplitude 0523 UTC

How to use Tsunameter information Cannot translate directly to a coastal amplitude Must compare with model scenario amplitude at the tsunameter site to determine tsunamigenic efficiency Then modify model scenario predictions along the coast Why can’t we simply use Green’s Law to determine coastal amplitude? Assumes uniform very gentle slope so no reflected energy. Reflected energy Transmitted energy 5km 1km Need to consider effects of Continental Shelf.

1 Prior to the earthquake The lower (subducting) plate drags down against the upper (over-riding) plate, causing it to bend down at the toe and to flex upwards further along. 2 The earthquake Increasing stress causes the plate boundary to rupture and the upper plate to rebound to its initial unflexed position, displacing the sea surface both up and down minutes after the earthquake The displaced sea surface propagates outward left as a positive tsunami (leading crest) and right as a negative tsunami (leading trough). +ve Leading crest - ve Leading trough from: „Surviving a tsunami“, U.S. Geological Survey, 1999

Sea way out The IOT Mag 9.2 Dec 2004

Sea right in The IOT Mag 9.2 Dec 2004

Scenario for Macran Trench event Mw 9.0

Scenario for Sumatra Trench event Mw 8.5

The Chile Tsunami 27 Feb 2010 Mag 8.8 Main focus was to the NW

Geoff Crane Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne/Brisbane