1. State of Tsunami Science and Early Warnings Dr. François Schindelé, CEA-DASE Chairman of the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific ICG/ITSU

2. State of Tsunami Science

3. TSUNAMIS M 8.7

4. TSUNAMIS 1946 Tsunami Destruction in Hilo, Hawaii

5. TSUNAMIS April 1, 1946 Tsunami at Hilo, Hawaii

6. Arica, Chile PERU TSUNAMI 23 JUN 2001 2033 UTC 16.2S 73.4W Mw=8.4 SERIES (4-5 large) of OCEAN WAVES MOST generated by EARTHQUAKES 4 to 60 MINUTES between WAVE CRESTS AMPLITUDE : A few cm to 20 m SPEED depends on WATER DEPTH : arround 800 km/h in deep ocean, 40 km/h close to the coast What is a Tsunami ?

7. COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 1. ASSESSMENT Historical Studies Historical Data Base Field Surveys Inundation Maps Numerical Simul Hazard Assessment

8. Run-up Map - Aleutians 1946 Tsunami Observation Directivity

9. Tsunami Generation

13. Tsunami generated by Earthquake 1 Generation ParametersInitiation Length Width Dislocation Strike Slope North Dip Numerical Modeling

14. 2 Propagation x h= h(x,y)  =  (x,y) Sea bottom z v=[u(x,y);v(x,y);0)] y tsunami Numerical Modeling

15. 3 Numerical Mareograms - Inundation Each bay Données : Grids bathymetry and topography Numerical Modeling

16. Tsunami generated by landslide Generation Propagation Inundation Numerical Modeling

17. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Aftershocs Rupture zone Main shoc

18. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Initiation

19. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height (in deep ocean)

20. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height Directivity due to the focal mechanism  Amplitud very different at the same distance ratio >10 Less damage on the coast at > 500 km than in front at 4000 km 0.1 m 1 m

21. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Travel Time 1h 2h 3h 1h 2h

22. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Sri Lanka Colombo Sea-level data Arrival time : 2h40 after EQ Amplitude > 2m

23. State of Early Warnings

24. 1Detection of Large Earthquakes (M > 7.0) Seismic Network 1Real Time Data 2Broad Band or long period seismometers 2Tsunami Detection Sea level Network 1Near Real Time Data 2Tide gage, pressure gage, DART boye

25. COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 3. WARNING Measurement Early Detection GUIDANCE Telecomm Real-Time Data Numerical Simul Wave Forecast Warning Dissem “to the last km” Rat Island, 17 Nov 2003 DART Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance

26. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : COLLECTION of SEISMIC DATA (Real Time) PTWC ACTIVITIES

27. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : Automatic ANALYSIS of SEISMIC DATA Detection, location, magnitude estimation Manual verification (geophysicist) If Epicenter located under the ocean or on the coast The focal depth < 60 km And the Magnitude > 7.8 A tsunami can be generated PTWC ACTIVITIES

28. EARLY WARNING TREMORS SYSTEM

29. TREMORS Sismometers

30. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : COLLECTION and ANALYSIS of WATER LEVEL DATA PTWC ACTIVITIES

31. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : Tsunami warning is confirmed if the tsunami amplitude is greater than 50cm - 1 m in the gages Tsunami warning is canceled in the other cases PTWC ACTIVITIES

32. PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES CPPT

33. Mitigation Warning Guidance Hazard Assessment Hazard Reduction Strategy: Assessment, Preparedness, Warning

34. Indian Ocean IOTWS Sea Level Network Subduction zone 1 Indian Ocean Warning Center National Warning Centers