1. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 1 The Role of IOC in Coordinating Tsunami Warning Systems Tony Elliott Head of ICG/IOTWS Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IOC Regional Programme Office, Perth

2. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 2 Outline Introduction to IOC Global Tsunami Information Establishment of ITSU/PTWS, IOTWS, NEAM and CARIBE Elements of an Intergovernmental Regional Warning System How Does IOC Facilitate? Take Home Points

3. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 3 Founded in 1960 with 136 mainly coastal member states The General Assembly meets in odd years and the Executive Council in even years

4. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 4 To coordinate these issues among member states the IOC secretariat is divided into four units: Science and Marine Ecosystems OOS Capacity Building Tsunami

5. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 5 Tsunami Sources in the world (2180 events from 1628 BC to 2005) Source, ITDB, 2005

6. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 6 Distribution of tsunamigenic events - Validity index 33% 18% 27% 15% 7% 4 (definite event) 3 (probable event) 2 (doubtful event) 1 (very doubtful event) 0 (false entry) 72% 10% 5% 2% 11% Tectonic Landslide Volcanic Meteorological Unknown Distribution of tsunamigenic events - Type of source Causes of Tsunamis

7. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 7 59% 25% 12% 4%4% Pacific Ocean and marginal seas Mediterranean Sea (including the Black Sea) Atlantic Ocean (including the Northern and the Baltic Seas) Indian Ocean 77% 10% 9% 4% Whole Historical Period 20th Century Event Distribution – Tsunamigenic Regions

8. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 8 In 1965 IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning & Mitigation System in the Pacific (PTWS) Recommends & coordinates tsunami programs, including timely ocean wide tsunami warnings Successful & operational for more than 40 years System is based on 26 national and 4 regional centres

9. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 9 c.230,000 Dead – Nations of the region react IOC invited to lead TWS establishment 11 countries ~230,000 deaths 1 million displaced 26 December 2004

10. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 10 Establishment of an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System March & April 2005 : In the aftermath of greatest tsunami in recorded history, IOC held two International Coordination meetings on the development of an IOTWS in Paris and Mauritius July 2005: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning & Mitigation System in the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS)

11. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 11 Global Network of TWS

12. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 12 The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning & Mitigation System (IOTWS)

13. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 13 Fully owned by Indian Ocean countries (28 Member States) Based on international and multilateral cooperation, with governance provided by IOC Based on open and free data exchange Protect all countries in Indian Ocean Transparent and accountable to all countries What is the System?

14. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 14 Based on joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres High-level commitment by countries with UN governance provided under the IOC Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and for protecting its own population. National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local) How Does it Function?

15. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 15 End-to-End System

16. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 16 WG1: Seismic measurements, data collection and exchange WG2: Sea level data collection and exchange, including tsunameters WG3: Risk assessment WG4: Modelling, forecasting and scenario development WG5: System of interoperable advisory and warning centres WG6: Mitigation, preparedness and response IOTWS Working Groups

17. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 17 Goals:- Core network of seismic stations, meeting instrument requirements, operational by 2010 and being maintained Ensure that all earthquakes >6 can be reliably located and quantified. Reduce time required for earthquake source characterisation to meet a local warning response of 5 to 10 minutes WG1 – Seismic Measurements, Data Collection and Exchange Chair: Dr Fauzi, Indonesia

18. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 18 Core Seismic stations Operational Planned 38 operational seismic stations by end 2006 75 seismic stations planned by 2010

19. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 19 Goals:- Regional core network of coastal sea level stations and deep ocean stations, meeting instrument requirements and standards, operational by 2010 and being maintained by countries in the region WG2 – Sea Level Measurements, Data collection and Exchange Chair: Mr Prem Kumar, India

20. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 20 Teluk Dalam Sadeng Banten Panjang Rangat Bay Kakinada Vizhingam Mangalore Kandla Chennai Feb 2007 Jul 06 24 stations in operation Feb 07 >41 stations in operation ~ 20 planned for remainder 2007

21. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 21 Proposed Deep Ocean Sea Level Measurement Network Malaysia – 1(3) India – 11 Indonesia – 12(22) Thailand – 3 Australia – 2 (4) USA – 3 -IO (Total)

22. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 22

23. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 23 WG3 – Risk Assessment Chair: Dr Sam Hettiarachchi, Sri Lanka Goals:- Standardised hazard risk assessment methods and products developed and employed to reduce vulnerability and strengthen coping capacity of coastal communities to tsunami hazards Assessment of environmental flashpoints at subnational level for use in preparedness and spatial planning and disaster risk reduction

24. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 24 Preparation of Indian Ocean Tsunami Hazard Maps (2 nd Quarter 2008) The Hazard Maps will represent, at a regional scale, wave heights and return periods for tsunamis generated from major earthquakes and volcano sources. Indian Ocean Hazard Maps

25. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 25 WG4 – Modelling, Forecasting and Scenario Development Chair: Dr Charitha Pattiaratchi, Sri Lanka Goals:- Provide benchmarked and validated numerical modelling methods and software applicable for the Indian Ocean Develop and sustain national and regional capacity to apply numerical modelling for tsunami source generation, wave propagation, and coastal inundation in the Indian Ocean

26. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 26 ComMIT

27. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 27 WG5 – System of Interoperable Advisory and Warning Centres Chair: Mr Geoff Crane, Australia Goals:- Coordinated regional warning system for the entire Indian Ocean region composed of network of interoperable Regional Tsunami Watch Providers and National Tsunami Warning Centres. National tsunami warning centres established and operating as authoritative source for tsunami advice and warnings. Tsunami alerts disseminated to the “last mile” through effective communications programmes.

28. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 28 Interim Advisory Service provided by PTWC and JMA Potential RTWPs are Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Iran and Thailand/ ADPC Implementation Plan to create an interoperable system of RTWPs. Plan to be completed by end 2007 Working towards providing full regional coverage for Indian Ocean by end 2008 RTWP Initiative

29. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 29 TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 2055Z 01 APR 2007 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT ALASKA – BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA. A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOLOMON IS. / PAPUA NEW GUINEA FOR ALL OTHER PACIFIC AREAS, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY.AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 2040Z 01 APR 2007 COORDINATES - 8.6 SOUTH 157.2 EAST LOCATION - SOLOMON ISLANDS MAGNITUDE - 7.8 EVALUATION IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN STRIKE COASTLINES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES TO HOURS. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE REGION AND REPORT IF ANY TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED.

30. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 30 A perfect warning will be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential

31. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 31 WG6 – Mitigation, Preparedness and Response Chair: Mr Michel Vielle, Seychelles Goals:- Promote, share, and develop tsunami good practice examples, tools, and best practice information for capacity and resilience building and emergency management. Mainstream tsunami warning and mitigation systems into development planning and practice. Prepare national and local emergency response plans for coastal regions and undertake regular preparedness exercises and drills. Undertake education and outreach campaigns on tsunami risks, warning systems, and response in coastal region

32. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 32 Outstanding Issues Maintenance Communications Data Sharing Bathymetric/topographic data Training, capacity building, technology transfer, training and training Preparedness, Mitigation & Response Research

33. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 33 Take Home Points IOTWS is a complex, multi-national, multi agency, multi- donor system Many players, coordination is the IOC’s role but is a major challenge Pace of implementation Regional – national – local Regional cooperation very important Multi hazard integration

34. Tony Elliott, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission UW Educational Outreach – Tsunami Science & Preparedness Program (Su 07) Sponsored by NOAA and USAID under the U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program Page 34 Thank You!