Current and Future HFC Demand by Sectors Bella Maranion TEAP co-chair Workshop on HFC Management Bangkok, 20 April 2015 1 1

HFC demand – overview (Dec XXV/5 report) Markets have now further developed in both Non-Article 5 and Article 5 countries, leading to considerable increases in the demand for HFCs Demand for HFCs has grown by 10-12% per year in Non-Article 5 countries over the period 2001-2011 (after 2014 growth is estimated at 1-3% per year) Demand for HFCs has increased significantly in Article 5 countries during 2006-2011 (>30% annually) and is expected to rise further with growth expected to be in the 5-7% range after 2016 Regulations are being considered (Japan and USA, others) that could affect future demand; EU F-gas regulation 517/2014 already adopted and entered into force in 2015 H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k 2 2 2

HFC demand data While HFC emissions are reported to the UNFCCC by developed countries, there is no reporting requirement for developing countries (developed countries also report demand) HFC demand data for this presentation have been derived from bottom-up estimates, results of which were presented in several TEAP TOC and Task Force reports The BAU demand presented incorporates the current Montreal Protocol phase-out framework: the Decision XIX/6 adjustment accelerating the HCFC phase-out HFC demand data concern the R/AC (85% in GWP terms), the foam (8%) and other (7%) sectors (for 2012-2014) H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k 3 3 3

HFC demand in tonnes H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k 4 4 4

R/AC and foam demand - BAU Foams 5

Foam – alternatives to ODS and HFCs 6

M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l O E W G - 2 9 m e e t i n g, 1 5 - 1 8 J u l y 2 0 0 9, G e n e v e

RAC – alternatives to ODS and HFCs

Refrigeration/AC - BAU Non-A5 See backup slide 13 9

Refrigeration/AC - BAU A5 See backup slide 14 10

Concluding remarks The BAU scenario for the R/AC sector (largest sector) shows rapidly growing demand in Article 5 countries during 2015-2030, which will have a substantial and further increasing climate impact Demand in R/AC applications dwarfs the demand in the various foam sub-sectors and other sectors (globally) Blowing agent demand will continue to grow with critical sectors still potentially dependent on HFCs Impacts of mitigation scenarios will be further evaluated in the upcoming Decision XXVI/9 report The emerging availability of high performance low-GWP refrigerants will provide new opportunities, but with no single solution H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k 11 11 11

Back-up slides H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k 12 12 12

R/AC BAU: Non- Article 5 The demand for HFC-134a in Non-Article 5 countries is relatively constant, with the phase-out for HFC-134a in MAC new equipment in Europe in 2017 A phase-out in new manufacturing of stationary refrigeration equipment using HFCs with a GWP larger than 2500 (R-404A) will result in a more than 30% decrease in the demand for R-404A (up to 2030) As of 2013-2015, R-410A is the refrigerant that shows largest demand; expressed in tonnes, it forms almost 40% of the total HFC refrigerant demand In tonnes, the total BAU refrigerant demand is expected to increase by about 50% between 2015 and 2030 H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k

RAC BAU: Article 5 The BAU scenario for R-404A and R-407C shows a growth in demand by a factor of 4-5 for the refrigerants R-404A, R-407C and R-410A over the period up to 2030 mainly due to the external (economic growth) factors; The demand (tonnes) for HFC-134a is estimated to gradually go below the demand for R-410A for air conditioning during the period 2015-2030; The demand for low-GWP refrigerants grows by a factor of 3, mainly due to the fact that the application of low-GWP refrigerants in the BAU scenario is only assumed to occur in certain R/AC sub-sectors Expressed in tonnes, the total refrigerant demand is expected to increase by more than a factor 3 between 2015 and 2030 H F C M a n a g e m e n t W o r k s h o p , 2 0 A p r i l 2 0 1 5, B a n g k o k