What are we doing about carbon emissions from transport? And is it enough? TPS Bursary presentation by Eleanor Mackay 22 November 2006

Outline Greenhouse gases and global warming World & UK policy context UK transport sector’s emissions What are we doing? –Reduction targets –Policy measures Is it enough? What do we need to do now?

Global warming Pre-industrial atmospheric CO2: 280 ppm 2006 CO2: 382 ppm, growing at 2.5ppm/yr Global avg temp rose +0.6C in 20th century Expected increase +1.4 to +5.8 C in 21st century 2C will be bad (extinctions, famine, mass migrations); >2C could be catastrophic - “runaway climate change” as natural positive feedbacks kick in

UK share of global emissions 2004 global emissions: –7,000m tons carbon –just over 1 ton C per person per year 2004 UK emissions: –225MtC (3.2% of total) –2.6 tons C/person/yr (2.37x world average)

Emissions reductions needed RCEP (2000) suggested UK’s contribution should be 60% cut by 2050 (550ppm stabilisation) BUT - Latest work suggests we risk “losing control” at >440ppm: & so need to cut global emissions per year by 60% to 0.33t C/head/yr by 2030 Hence UK needs 87% cut by 2030 (Monbiot, 2006)

Global and National Policy Context

UK policy context - targets Kyoto obligation: 12.5% reduction Joint departmental PSA: 20% reduction Energy White Paper: Commit to RCEP 60% reduction

Performance against targets

Kyoto 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: on track? PSA 20% reduction CO 2 emissions: govt now says unlikely to be met RCEP 60% reduction CO 2 emissions: ? How do we know? Worrying trend in CO 2 ?

UK transport sector CO 2 emissions UK total emissions: 153m tons C/yr Transport emissions: 36m tons C/yr (23%) Strongest growth in emissions: up 10% Only sector to exhibit growth on 1990 levels

CO 2 emissions: by mode

CO 2 emissions: by sector

What are we doing? UK transport sector policy measures Reduce the fossil carbon content of fuel: –Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation Increase the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet –EU manufacturers’ voluntary agreement –Company car tax and VED reform Reduce usage of vehicles (reduce total veh-km) –“wider transport measures” –“sustainable distribution (in Scotland)”

Transport’s Emission Reductions Measure 2000 Climate Change Programme 2006 Climate Change Programme EU Manufacturer’s Voluntary Agreements, Company car tax reform and reform of VED 4 Million tonnes of Carbon (MtC) 2.3MtC Wider Transport Measures1.6MtC0.8MtC Sustainable distribution (in Scotland) 0.1MtC Fuel duty escalator1 to 2.5MtC1.9MtC Total Existing Measures6.6 to 8.1MtC5.1MtC Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation 1.6MtC Future EU Manufacturer’s Agreement 0.1MtC Total New Measures 1.7MtC Overall Total 6.6 to 8.1MtC6.8MtC

What are we doing? Carbon content of fuel Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation 5% substitution by 2010 to commence 2008 Biofuels and carbon benefits Biofuels and wider environmental/ sustainability issues Wider policy implications Design of RTFO – weak incentive?

What are we doing? Vehicle fuel efficiency Car Manufacturer’s Voluntary Agreements Reduce average new car CO2 emissions to 140gCO2/km (25% reduction on 1995 levels) by 2008/09 Technological developments VA increasingly shown to be off target Most significant policy measure in the CCP for transport

What are we doing? Vehicle fuel efficiency Reform of Vehicle Excise Duty and Company Car Tax Both restructured to be based on graduated scale of CO 2 emissions of vehicles – highest emitters paying more VED linked to energy efficiency label Company car tax reform more effective than VED Price signal not significant enough incentive to change behaviour in private car market

What are we doing? Wider transport measures Sustainable distribution, Bus quality contracts, Smarter Choices, Demand Management Largely unquantified benefits Potentially significant role Problems with implementing demand management Issues of design – Road Pricing

What are we doing? Wider transport measures Behavioural Change Appears to be difference in expectations between government and public in who has the ultimate responsibility Public assume government will legislate Government provides information and lets people choose

What are we doing? Future policy Emissions Trading and transport A method to reach an emissions reduction level or cap at the lowest cost by creating a market that should favour the cheapest options Cap determines the level of reduction Inclusion of intra-EU flights into existing EU scheme by 2008? Unlikely to 2013 at earliest Complexities of trading – rigour and politicisation of cap setting, ability to administer a scheme including transport

Is it enough? Long term 2006 CCP measures project a 6.8MtC reduction To meet the RCEP’s 60% reduction transport reduction ‘package’ must achieve 20MtC reduction Significant technological and behavioural change are needed in order to achieve a 25MtC (60%) cut by 2030 Aviation unchecked alone could grow to between 33% and 50% of the total 60% reduction target by 2050 (excluding the effect of uplift)

Implications of Aviation Growth: 550ppm (RCEP’s 60% target)

Implications of Aviation Growth: 450ppm (> risk losing control)

Is it enough? Coverage Transport emissions targets only cover part of the story: international emissions excluded Lack of clarity for judging real progress Potential conflict between transport and climate change policy? – Aviation White Paper

Is it enough? Implementation Current policy is failing to deliver the necessary change on the ground: relies on a few individual policy measures Behavioural change is increasingly important but political will to create the right incentives is still lacking Focus is on the symptom i.e. the emissions and not the underlying cause i.e. unsustainable travel patterns and consumption of natural resources –limits the effectiveness, stores up the problems for the future

What do we need to do now? Significant reductions are attainable Requires immediate action Requires both significant change to technologies employed and the way we use transport

What do we need to do now? Sustainable resource use must be integrated into and underpin –all policy areas; –using all types of policy measures; and –be implemented in full Public expectation for the government to act on climate change Political will to act is the critical factor…