“Old Approach to Needs Analysis” The standard practice in Oregon has been to extrapolate forward the past 5 or more years in housing production as the basis for determining a region’s future housing requirements. “Demand” was assumed to be equivalent to “need”. “New Methodology” A guiding principal in the development of the housing needs model was that the methodology for calculating housing needs was to be driven by the demographics of the study area – by people not production.

Housing Need is Defined by Housing Choice Options l Tenure - Rent versus Own l Price - What is an affordable price range l Housing type - What style of housing is desired

Initial Research l Identify those demographic variables that would be highly correlated with housing needs l Two variables – age of head of household (Age - A) and household income (Income – I) - demonstrated significantly stronger correlation with housing tenure than other variables including household size l Household income is the key variable in determining the affordability component of housing needs l Age and Income data is available for each potential study area

Initial Steps l Select the age and income ranges that would be used to break the study area’s population into household cohorts l Seven Age ranges - under 25, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75 and older - were chosen l Seven Income ranges - under $10,000; 10,000-19,999; 20,000-29,999; 30,000-39,999; 40,000-49,999; 50, ,999; 75,000 and over - were chosen l These age and income ranges define 49 Age/Income cohorts and were determined to be the most useful ranges for calculating housing needs

Initial Steps (cont.) l Find a source of demographic data for the 49 Age/Income cohorts l Census 2000 was selected as the source for this demographic data l Households in these 49 Age/Income (AI) cohorts make significantly different housing tenure choices as reflected by the Census data l Use the choices derived from the Census for each cohort as the basis for tenure parameters in the model

Next Steps l Compared model results with Census 2000 data l Determined that households in certain types of cities made different housing tenure choices l Created three categories of census places with model tenure parameters for each category l Version U - Urban, college, and resort l Version M - Medium Rural (6, ,500) l Version S - Small Rural (under 6,750) l Added “wealth” factor to model l Added mortgage rate factor for affordability impact

Model Assumptions l Housing need is defined by cohort tenure choices and is equivalent to the actual cohort tenure data found within a large regional area l While the local supply of rental versus ownership housing may not be in equilibrium with tenure need in some markets, on a larger regional basis it is in equilibrium l Housing that is at “price ranges and rent levels commensurate with the financial capabilities of Oregon households” means that no more than 30% of a household’s income should be spent on housing costs, i.e., is affordable l The seven Income ranges in conjunction with the 30% limit on housing costs establishes the price ranges and rent levels used in the model to calculate the housing units needed at each price point

Model Design Goals l Model structure should employ individual modules for each analytical component by using Excel templates. l Data needed to drive the model must be available. l Data gathering requirements for each locality should be minimized. l Parameters in the model should be easy to update and modify. l Model should be a user-friendly tool for city staff or interested parties. l Model should allow users to easily test out different growth scenarios. l Model should automatically produce tables and graphs that can be used as printed material for public dissemination of model results. l Model should reflect local conditions and characteristics. l Model should work for any size city and location. l Model should accommodate interaction with other planning goals. l Model should be flexible and have a variety of uses beyond satisfying Goal 10.

Model Housing Types l Single Family Units – either site built or manufactured single family dwellings on their own lot l Manufactured Dwelling Park Unit – a single family dwelling unit located in a rental park l Duplex Unit – a two-family dwelling unit located on its own lot l Tri-plex or Quad-plex Unit – a three or four-family dwelling unit l 5+ Multi-family Unit – dwelling units in buildings with 5 or more units per building Five housing types have been identified for use in the model to categorize a community’s existing inventory of dwelling units. Each of these housing types can be owner occupied or renter occupied.

Why cities should use the Model The model represents a methodology that guides cities through a process that appropriately determines their housing needs in a way that compels them to address the types of housing needed to support their population The output of the housing needs module then drives the land use module which calculates the land needed within their UGB for housing

User Inputs for Running Model l Housing inventory by Housing Type and Price Point l Out Factor adjustment for reflecting local lifestyle choices - optional l Future population projection and household Income/Age distribution l Planned distribution of new housing units by housing type, tenure, and price point l Planned housing density by land use zone l Housing inventory by land use zone l Planned distribution of new housing units by zone l Buildable land inventory by land use zone

Model templates color scheme

Housing/Land Needs Templates The following slides demonstrate the templates and graphs used in the model to calculate and display housing and land needs. These slides are taken from several model runs and will not be internally consistent. The model contains additional templates and graphs that are similar to those that follow.