1. Avalon Park Retail Market Analysis Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Blvd. Orlando, FL 32817 407-382-3256 www.fishkind.com December 12, 2008

2. Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 2 Analysis Overview  Avalon Park Group (“Client”) tasked Fishkind and Associates, Inc. (“Consultant”) with conducting an independent retail market analysis.  The analysis was conducted to determine the net need for retail square footage at the intersection of Avalon Park Boulevard and Alafaya Trail (“Site”) in southeast Orange County.  The Site is located at the main entrance to the Avalon Park Mixed-Use Development.  The Consultant utilized a proprietary retail market demand/supply model to quantify the demand and supply conditions within the applicable trade areas surrounding the Site.

3. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 3 Site Location  As the map shows, the Site is located in southeast Orange County; east of Hwy. 417, north of Hwy. 528, and south of SR 50.

4. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 4 Retail Model Methodology  The Consultant’s retail model projects the demand for all types of retail, commercial, and entertainment goods and services as a function of total available spending in a given trade area.  Total spending in the trade area in turn is a function of the number of households in the trade area and demographic characteristics of those households.  The model also analyzes the supply of competing retail commercial space in the market.

5. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 5 Retail Model Methodology  The model uses a gravity based system to measure the effect of travel time on demand and supply, as they affect the subject site.  Essentially, the more distant a competitor, the lower the capacity of the supplier to impact the subject’s trade area.  Similarly, the closer the demand unit (household) is to the subject’s location, the greater their propensity to spend at the subject site.

6. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 6 Trade Area Methodology  Demand for retail space can be broken down into three distinct categories:  Neighborhood: 0 – 100,000 square feet  Community: 100,000 – 350,000 square feet  Regional: > 350,000 square feet  Industry standards provide for a unique trade area to be utilized in the evaluation of demand arising from each of three retail demand types:  Neighborhood: 10-minute drive-time  Community: 20-minute drive-time  Regional: 30-minute drive-time

7. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 7 Trade Area Methodology  Given the relative location of the Site (distant from a major intersection) and the Site’s lack of visibility and access, the Consultant believes the Site is not appropriate for regional serving retail space.  As such, the Consultant has only evaluated the need for neighborhood and community serving retail space at the Site.

8. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 8 Trade Area Methodology  The Consultant created two distinct trade areas surrounding the Site.  A 10-minute drive-time trade area was created to estimate the demand for neighborhood serving square footage at the site.  A 20-minute drive-time trade area was created to estimate the demand for community serving square footage at the site.

9. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 9 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  The 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area was estimated utilizing the census based geographical modeling program, I-site by Geovue.  I-Site created a 10-Minute Trade Area utilizing average rates of speed for the respective roadway types that currently exist.  The Consultant then adjusted the 10-Minute Trade Area to account for the proposed extension of Avalon Park Boulevard south towards Highway 528 and the Innovation Way corridor.

10. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 10 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  The map shows the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.

11. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 11 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  The 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area was also estimated utilizing the census based geographical modeling program, I-site by Geovue.  I-Site created a 20-Minute Trade Area utilizing average rates of speed for the respective roadway types that currently exist.  The Consultant then adjusted the 20-Minute Trade Area to account for the proposed extension of Avalon Park Boulevard south towards Highway 528 and the Innovation Way corridor; however, the trade area does not extend south of Highway 528.

12. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 12 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  The Innovation Way corridor, which lies south of Highway 528, was not included in the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area for the following reasons:  Currently, there are limited approved entitlements in the corridor.  It is uncertain how much of the proposed development will be built and absorbed within the next 10 to 15 years.  For the development that does occur, it is expected that all retail demand created in the corridor will be absorbed by retail space developed concurrently within the corridor.  Effectively, the Consultant’s analysis assumes that the Innovation Way corridor will build-out in equilibrium with respect to retail supply and demand.

13. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 13 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  Fishkind also adjusted the trade area to account for the Wedgefield community, which lies to the east of the Site.  The Wedgefield community is located beyond a 20-minute drive-time from the Site; however, the Consultant determined that it should be included in the community demand projections due to a lack of available community serving retail space within close proximity to the development.

14. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 14 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area  The map shows the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.

15. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 15 Neighborhood Demand  The Consultant utilized I-site to estimate the current volume of households within the 10- Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.  2008: 15,707 households  To determine the future household growth within the 10-Minute Trade Area, the Consultant first calculated the historical percentage share of countywide households that were located within the 10-Minute Trade Area.  The average annual growth in the 10-Minute share of countywide households was then calculated.

16. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 16 Neighborhood Demand

17. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 17 Neighborhood Demand  To project future household growth within the 10- Minute Trade Area, the Consultant utilized the medium level population forecast for Orange County generated by the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) as a control total.  Next, utilizing BEBR’s estimation of household size for Orange County, the Consultant translated the future countywide population growth into the growth in households.  The Consultant then projected the percentage share of future countywide households that will be located in the 10-Minute Trade Area utilizing the historical growth in the percentage share as a basis.

18. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 18 Neighborhood Demand  Before projecting the household growth in the 10-Minute Trade Area, however, the Consultant first needed to determine the holding capacity of the vacant lands within the Trade Area.  Regardless of the projected demand in the 10- Minute Trade Area, a finite capacity for future growth exists in practice due to a limited volume of vacant lands and the densities assigned to those lands by the Orange County Future Land Use Map (FLUM).

19. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 19 Neighborhood Demand  The Consultant conducted a detailed analysis of vacant lands within the 10-Minute Trade Area and determined the residential holding capacity of those lands based on the densities assigned to each FLUM category in the Orange County FLUM.  According to the Consultant’s vacant land analysis, the 10-Minute Trade Area has the capacity to accommodate an additional 10,427 housing units.  This figure includes the additional 1,400 units yet to be built within the Avalon Park project.

20. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 20 Neighborhood Demand  The map shows all vacant parcels within the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area

21. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 21 Neighborhood Demand  The final household projections were estimated by applying a rate of growth to the 10-Minute Trade Area household percentage share, then applying that share to the countywide household control total.  The projections were extended until the holding capacity of the Trade Area was reached.  The holding capacity was determined by adding the current volume of households in the Trade Area (15,707) to the vacant capacity of the Trade Area (10,427).

22. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 22 Neighborhood Demand

23. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 23 Neighborhood Demand  As shown in the previous slide, the 10-Minute Trade Area is expected to reach build-out in 2015 with a total of 26,134 households.  Utilizing an average household income of $77,100 as calculated by I-site, the Consultant’s retail model estimates that the 26,234 households will generate demand for 174,838 square feet of neighborhood serving retail space at the Site in 2015.  Currently, there are 15,707 households generating demand for 105,080 square feet of neighborhood serving retail space at the Site.

24. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 24 Community Demand  The Consultant utilized I-site to estimate the current volume of households within the 20- Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.  2008: 56,237 households  To determine the future household growth within the 20-Minute Trade Area, the Consultant first calculated the historical percentage share of countywide households that were located within the 20-Minute Trade Area.  The average annual growth in the 20-Minute share of countywide households was then calculated.

25. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 25 Community Demand

26. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 26 Community Demand  To project future household growth within the 20-Minute Trade Area, the Consultant utilized the medium level population forecast for Orange County generated by BEBR as a control total.  Next, utilizing BEBR’s estimation of household size for Orange County, the Consultant translated the future countywide population growth into the growth in households.  The Consultant then projected the percentage share of future countywide households that will be located in the 20-Minute Trade Area utilizing the historical growth in the percentage share as a basis.

27. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 27 Community Demand  Before projecting the household growth in the 20-Minute Trade Area, however, the Consultant first needed to determine the holding capacity of the vacant lands within the Trade Area.  Regardless of the projected demand in the 20-Minute Trade Area, a finite capacity for future growth exists in practice due to a limited volume of vacant lands and the densities assigned to those lands by the Orange County FLUM.

28. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 28 Community Demand  The Consultant conducted a detailed analysis of vacant lands within the 20-Minute Trade Area and determined the residential holding capacity of those lands based on the densities assigned in the Orange County FLUM.  According to the Consultant’s vacant land analysis, the 20-Minute Trade Area has the capacity to accommodate an additional 41,338 housing units.  This figure includes the additional 1,400 units yet to be built within the Avalon Park project.

29. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 29 Community Demand  The map shows all vacant parcels within the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area, as indicated by the Orange County Property Appraiser.

30. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 30 Community Demand  The final household projections were estimated by applying a rate of growth to the 20-Minute Trade Area household percentage share, then applying that share to the countywide household control total.  The projections were extended until the holding capacity of the Trade Area was reached.  The holding capacity was determined by adding the current volume of households in the Trade Area (56,237) to the vacant capacity of the Trade Area (41,338).

31. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 31 Community Demand

32. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 32 Community Demand  As shown in the previous slide, the 20-Minute Trade Area is expected to reach build-out in 2020 with a total of 97,575 households.  Utilizing an average household income of $64,436 as calculated by I-site, the Consultant’s retail model estimates that the 97,575 households will generate demand for 1,711,892 square feet of community serving retail space at the Site in 2020.  Currently, there are 56,237 households generating demand for 986,643 square feet of community serving retail space at the Site.

33. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 33 Demand Summary

34. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 34 Neighborhood Supply  The Consultant utilized the online commercial tracking software Costar to determine the existing inventory of neighborhood serving retail square footage in the market.  The Consultant inventoried all existing neighborhood serving retail space within a 20- minute drive-time of the Site.  The inventory of retail space must extend beyond the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area, because households on the fringes of the Trade Area have their own 10-minute drive-time trade areas within which they expend neighborhood serving demand.

35. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 35 Neighborhood Supply  The Consultant identified sixty-five (65) neighborhood serving centers or stand-alone businesses within a 20-minute drive-time of the Site.  The centers/businesses contain 1.1 million square feet of neighborhood serving space.  Due to the varying distances of the centers/businesses from the Site, the volume of competing neighborhood serving retail space is approximately 402k square feet.

36. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 36 Neighborhood Supply  The map shows the locations of the sixty-five (65) competing neighborhood centers.

37. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 37 Neighborhood Summary

38. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 38 Community Supply  The Consultant utilized the online commercial tracking software Costar to determine the existing inventory of community serving retail square footage in the market.  The Consultant inventoried all existing community serving retail space within a 40- minute drive-time of the Site.  The inventory of retail space must extend beyond the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area, because households on the fringes of the Trade Area have their own 20-minute drive-time trade areas within which they expend community serving demand.

39. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 39 Community Supply  The Consultant identified ninety (90) community serving centers within a 40- minute drive-time of the Site.  The centers contain 14 million square feet of community serving space.  Due to the varying distances of the centers from the Site, the volume of competing community serving retail space is approximately 1.2 million square feet.

40. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 40 Community Supply  The map shows the locations of the ninety (90) competing community centers.

41. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 41 Neighborhood Summary  There are currently 15,707 households within the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area generating demand for 105,081 square feet of neighborhood serving retail space at the Site.  There is currently 401,769 square feet of competing neighborhood serving space at the Site.  Thus, there is currently a surplus of 296,688 square feet of neighborhood serving space at the Site.

42. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 42 Neighborhood Summary  In 2020, the Consultant is projecting a total of 26,134 households within the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area that are expected to generate demand for 174,838 square feet of neighborhood serving retail space.  With no additional neighborhood serving retail development between 2008 and 2020, the surplus of neighborhood serving retail space in 2020 would be 226,931.

43. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 43 Community Summary  There are currently 56,237 households within the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area generating demand for 986,643 square feet of community serving retail space at the Site.  There is currently 1,195,088 square feet of competing community serving space at the Site.  Thus, there is currently a surplus of 208,445 square feet of community serving space at the Site.

44. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 44 Community Summary  In 2020, the Consultant is projecting a total of 97,575 households within the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area that are expected to generate demand for 1,711,892 square feet of community serving retail space.  With no additional community serving retail development between 2008 and 2020, there would be a net demand for 516,804 square feet of additional community serving retail space at the Site.

45. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 45 Community Summary

46. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 46 Existing Retail Conditions  Currently, the Consultant estimates that there is an excess supply of 505,134 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space in the market.  However, by 2020, the Consultant projects that the market could support an additional 289,873 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.

47. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 47 Projected Commercial Capacity  To determine the existing potential for additional neighborhood and community serving space in the market, the Consultant evaluated the inventory of vacant commercial acreage within the 20-Minute Drive- Time Trade Area as indicated within the Orange County FLUM.  Only vacant parcels less than 35 acres were included in the analysis, so as to eliminate those lands capable of accommodating regional serving retail space.  Additionally, the Consultant eliminated all adjacent parcels at major intersections that totaled greater than 35 acres.  Thus, the projected commercial capacity analysis eliminates potential regional serving capacity and does not distinguish between neighborhood and community serving capacity.

48. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 48 Projected Commercial Capacity  The map shows the locations of the vacant commercial parcels within the 20-Minute Trade Area as indicated in the Orange County FLUM.

49. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 49 Projected Commercial Capacity  The Consultant identified 215 vacant commercial parcels totaling 221 acres.  A standard Floor-Area-Ratio (FAR) for neighborhood and commercial serving square footage is 0.20.  Applying the 0.20 FAR to the 221 vacant acres results in the capacity for 1.9 million square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.

50. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 50 Projected Commercial Capacity  To account for the distance factors associated with competing supply, the Consultant estimated that only 33% of the capacity represents competing space at the Site.  Further, the Consultant estimated that 25% of the capacity will never come to market.  Based on these reductions, the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade area currently has the capacity to accommodate an additional 476,911 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.  This does not include the remaining 92,000 square feet of space planned within the Avalon Park Project.  Thus, the total estimated future capacity of the Trade Area is 569,371 square feet.

51. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 51 Conclusions  The analysis shows the relevant market surrounding the Site reaching build-out in 2020.  At that time, the market will contain 97,575 households who will be generating demand for 1.89 million square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space at the Site.  The existing supply of neighborhood and community serving retail space totals 1.60 million square feet.

52. December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 52 Conclusions  Between 2008 and 2020 there will be need for an additional 289k square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space to meet the projected levels of demand.  The market currently contains capacity for an additional 569,371 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.  Based on these projections, there is currently a surplus of available retail supply (both existing supply and future capacity) in the market to meet the projected market demand.