National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 22 July 2014

Outline Welcome –Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Brian McCallum, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

Current drought status

Return of the “Polar Vortex”!

7-day Rainfall Totals

Lawn and Garden Moisture Index

30-Day Rainfall

90-day Rainfall Departures

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: Brian McCallum

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Chattahoochee near Columbus ( )

Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Conditions Previous briefCurrent brief

Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

7-Day Precipitation Forecast David Zierden

Tropics Heating Up

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Nino Indices

Winds Over the Pacific

Subsurface Temperatures Late AprilCurrent

ENSO forecast from CPC/IRI

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

Hurricane Formation Regions

Summer Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany Jeff Dobur

Summary-David Zierden Abnormal? dryness (not drought) creeping in to the Southeast and ACF Basin Lawn and Garden index shows moist conditions in Florida, mixed in Alabama and Georgia Overall, the upper and middle ACF basin has seen near normal rainfall at 90 days

Summary-Brian McCallum Realtime streamflows are in the normal range generally, but drop towards below normal conditions as you move downstream. Inflows into Lake Lanier continue in normal range. Streamflows are at below normal conditions throughout the Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are at above normal levels in South Georgia

Summary-David Zierden Development of El Nino likely? (75%) in the next 1-3 months, likely strength looking less and less El Nino a primary reason for below normal hurricane forecast One-month CPC outlook calls for equal chances, wetter in the Southwest. Not verifying well… Climatologically can expect 5-6” in July, but only 3-5” in August. More for the coastal areas.

Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal Not much change from previous forecast

References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

Thank you! Next briefing August 19, 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: