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Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy,

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Presentation on theme: "Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy, Victoria)

2 Last 36 Months’ Rainfall

3 Last 12 Months’ Rainfall

4 Last 3 Month’s Rainfall

5 Rainfall Deficiencies (8 months)

6 Rainfall Deficiencies (12 months)

7 El Niño and Rainfall

8 La Niña and Rainfall

9 SOI Values

10 Seasonal Weather and SOI (strength and direction of relationship) (brown diamonds:rain; green squares:min temp; orange crosses:max temp

11 Wheat Yields and SOI

12 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

13 SST – Precipitation Relationship

14 SST – Temperature Relationship

15 Seasonal Forecast Accuracy (precipitation)

16 Rainfall Forecasts

17 Min Temp Forecasts

18 Max Temp Forecasts

19 El Niño Summary During the past week the real-time SOI has dropped further to -13. Nevertheless, the warm oceans in the central Pacific near the date line continue to show signs of cooling. Cool waters below the surface have extended into the central equatorial Pacific from the west, but these are still at depths greater than 100 m, undercutting the warm water. Of the 12 available model predictions from November only three indicate El Ni ñ o conditions at five months [April 2003]. These predictions are broadly consistent with the observation that El Ni ñ o tends to break down in late summer or autumn. During the past week the real-time SOI has dropped further to -13. Nevertheless, the warm oceans in the central Pacific near the date line continue to show signs of cooling. Cool waters below the surface have extended into the central equatorial Pacific from the west, but these are still at depths greater than 100 m, undercutting the warm water. Of the 12 available model predictions from November only three indicate El Ni ñ o conditions at five months [April 2003]. These predictions are broadly consistent with the observation that El Ni ñ o tends to break down in late summer or autumn.

20 Forecast Summary Only a 50/50 chance of above normal rainfall during summer 2002/2003. A slightly increased chance of below normal overnight temperatures. A slightly increased chance of above normal daytime temperatures. Given the history of El Niño events, a breakdown might be expected late in the summer or during the autumn. Only a 50/50 chance of above normal rainfall during summer 2002/2003. A slightly increased chance of below normal overnight temperatures. A slightly increased chance of above normal daytime temperatures. Given the history of El Niño events, a breakdown might be expected late in the summer or during the autumn.


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