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EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought.

Published byTamsin Newton Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought."— Presentation transcript:

1

2 EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012

3 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

4 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

5 Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

6 Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

7 Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

8 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

9 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

10 Snow Water Equivalent Mt. Hood Test Site Average So Far Last Year

11 Snow Water Equivalent Cascade Summit (Central Cascades) Average This Year Last Year

12 Snow Water Equivalent Wolf Creek (NE Mountains) Average This Year Last Year

13 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

14 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

15 Drought Monitor May 29 th, 2012

16 Drought Monitor May 29 th, 2012

17 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

18 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

19 Precipitation Probability June 2012

20 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

21 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

22 Precipitation Probability July, August, September

23 Temperature Probability July, August, September

24 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

25 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

26 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen

27 El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques La Niña El Niño

28 El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques

29 ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height

30 ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height Anomaly

31 ENSO Neutral Summers 850mb Temperature Anomaly

32 Analog Years El Niño/La Niña

33 Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 2009 1963 1976

34 Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 2009 1963 1976 Pete Parsons 1951 1972 2009

35 Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth 1951 2009 1963 1976 Pete Parsons 1951 1972 2009 Jim Little 1963 1972 2001 200919752000

36 EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line

37 EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line  In many respects a rather “average” summer  Driest areas east of Cascades  Driest months August and September  Best chances for dry lightning August and September

38 EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

39 EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

40 EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us Questions? Contact jlittle@odf.state.or.us

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