IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean generated hazards Symposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk Management Geneva, 23 May 2006 Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

Plate Tectonics GFZ, Potsdam

Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes Accompanied with Tsunami with Tsunami greater than M6.0

Tsunami probability based on historic data F. Schindele, CEA

1965: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean (PTWS) following th valdivia (1960) and Alaska (1964) tsunamis

28 member States (2005): Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France, Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa. Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrs Well recognised international scientific program Pacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levels Direct humanitarian aim Mitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property IOC ICG/PTWS

After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and immediate response of the UN and Governments March & April 2005: Two International Coordination meetings (Paris and Mauritius) for the Development of an Indian Ocean TWS

June 21-30, 2005: the 23 rd IOC Assembly approved resolutions for the establishment of a global strategy and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for – the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS) – the Caribbean (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) – the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean (ICG/NEAMTWS)

ICG/IOTWS PTWC NWPTAC WC/ATWC ICG/NEAMTWS SWP-TWS ICG/CA Global and Regional Tsunami Warning Centers

Indotsunami/

IO initial System for July 2006 Based on Existing: Network of 26(29) National Information Centres [24/7] Fast Track implementations of projects to upgrade existing seismographic network improve existing sea-level network (key stations with 1min data transmission interval) upgrade data and information communication system

Agreed Seismographic Stations

The Challenge for the IO We essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries and this work will be completed in 2006 for the rest. ICG/IOTWS is requesting a comprehensive Plan, incl. the country level the need of the development of the National Plans

Necessary Elements for Determination of Earthquake Location and Magnitude Arrival Time of Seismic Waves (P and/or S waves) Location (Latitude, Longitude and Depth) Maximum Amplitude of Seismic Waves Magnitude P arrival S arrival Maximum Amplitude Seismic Wave

LISS/IRIS Waveforms: Large Earthquake 5minutes data loss There are about 20~30% stations JMA could not receive complete waveform data. SAML TRQA RCBR DWPF BBSR PTCN WVT Station Map PS PS PS P P P P SAML TRQA RCBR DWPF BBSR PTCN WVT （ Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005 ）

Early Detection JMA could receive complete waveform data from almost all stations. Station Map P PS P P P P LPAZ USHA ILAR STKA PMG CMAR CTBTO/IMS Waveforms （ Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005 ）

AverageInternet 82.14% CTBTO/IMS 99.67% Data Availability

Data Transmission Delay CTBTO/IMS : 30 seconds at most LISS :100 seconds on average IRIS :180 seconds on average

Earthquake Detection and Delay LPAZ (Earliest CTBTO/IMS station) Earthquake Detection at JMA (30 seconds delay) Earthquake Detection at JMA (100 seconds delay) Seismic wave arrived at the CTBTO/IMS earliest station 110 seconds earlier than at LISS earliest station. JMA could detect the earthquake by the CTBTO/IMS station 180 seconds earlier than by the LISS station. SAML (Earliest LISS station) （ Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005 ）

Internet(LISS,IRIS) Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Depth Error (km) Depth Error Estimated Hypocenter

Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter Internet(LISS,IRIS) Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Near Sumatra Islands

Internet(LISS,IRIS) Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Near Chile (Southern America) Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter

IOC contributions to monitoring other Hazards of ocean origin Storm – surges, JCOMM (IOC – WMO) Tropical storms, JCOMM Improving Storm and cyclones tracking and landing forecasts, JCOMM Extreme ocean wave weather (36 – 72 hours forecasts Ice Hazard, JCOMM Oil Spills tracking and landing, IOC, WMO, UNEP Red Tides, IOC, FAO, WHO

Development of Interoperable Regional EWS Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbados 1-5 May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice and to come: 31 July-2 August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, Bali Dec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, Venezuela Global Integration Apply synergies and cost-efficiency into the development of a single global meta-system 24 of June 2006: Global Multi-hazard meeting in Paris, “Ad-hoc WG on the framework for a Global Tsunami and other Ocean- related Hazards Early Warning System.” IOC Strategy and implementation

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