1. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 1 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission WMO DRR Expert Meeting IOC Tsunami Warning Systems, Operational National end-to-end Systems, Co-ordination and Support Geneva, November 27 2007

2. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 2 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Established in 1960 in UNESCO Established in 1960 in UNESCO Purpose to promote international cooperation and to coordinate programmes in research, services and capacity-building, in order to learn more about the nature and resources of the ocean and coastal areas and to apply that knowledge for the improvement of management, sustainable development, the protection of the marine environment, and the decision-making process of its Member States Purpose to promote international cooperation and to coordinate programmes in research, services and capacity-building, in order to learn more about the nature and resources of the ocean and coastal areas and to apply that knowledge for the improvement of management, sustainable development, the protection of the marine environment, and the decision-making process of its Member States

3. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 3 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in 1960, 2005 and 2007 Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in 1960, 2005 and 2007 Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach, Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach, –Specifically sea-level based hazards Global oversight Working Group TOWS under Assembly established to Global oversight Working Group TOWS under Assembly established to -ensure coherency and consistency -ensure coherency and consistency -provide uniform governance structure -provide uniform governance structure Mandated under UNGA 61 Mandated under UNGA 61

4. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 4 Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System 1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific 1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (PTWC headquarters) (PTWC headquarters) - successful & operational Tsunami Warning & Mitigation system 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS, ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS, ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global supervisory) 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global supervisory)

5. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 5 United Nations role: What is the System? Define the proper scale of problem and its solution. Define the proper scale of problem and its solution. The system must be: The system must be: –Fully owned by countries in region –Based on international multilateral cooperation –Based on open and free data exchange –Protect ALL countries in region –Transparent and accountable to all members

6. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 6 End-to-End System

9. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 9 FACTS: Every Ocean Basin and Sea impacted Next tsunami can occur anywhere and any time Some countries have coasts on 2 or more basins No Early Tsunami Warning Systems outside Pacific in 2004 Comprehensive Tsunami Mitigation Programme required Hazard Risk Assessment, Preparedness, Warning Guidance

10. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 10 Besides the Pacific system three more regions to coordinate Criteria -relevant -appropriate -affordable -robust

11. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 11 Designing a GLOBAL Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System 4 Seas 3 Oceans

12. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 12 IOC in UN partnership ISDR IOC WMO Warning guidance Hazard assessment Mitigation Communication (GTS) Multi-hazard Public awareness Preparedness

13. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 13 How does it function? Is based on the joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres Is based on the joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres UN governance provided under the IOC UN governance provided under the IOC Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and protect its own population. Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and protect its own population. National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local) National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local)

14. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 14 REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): Regional Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System National TWC WC/ATWC NWPTAC PTWC Regional TWC PTWC Regional TWC International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) National TWC National TWS

15. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 15 Describing the System PRESENT: PTWS: PTWC, WC/ATWC, JMA Interim System (PTWC, JMA) FUTURE PTWS? FUTURE PTWS? Intl System comprised of Natl/ sub-regional TWC as countries develop their own centres Intl System comprised of Natl/ sub-regional TWC as countries develop their own centres

16. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 16 Indian Ocean Where are we now? A single system being established A single system being established All countries of Indian Ocean participate Interim Tsunami advisory information from centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. Interim Tsunami advisory information from centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations Governance under UN/IOC Governance under UN/IOC Full scope of task recognized: Full scope of task recognized: multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR, UNDP, UN-ESCAP Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR, UNDP, UN-ESCAP

17. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 17 28 real-time sea level stations 25 new broadband seismometers Dozen technical training courses on tsunami modelling and seismic analysis 19 TW capacity assessment missions Tsunami Warning Emergency Standard Operations Procedures for Indonesia (2006-07) TsunamiTeacher: multi-purpose educational toolkit in English and Bahasa Indonesia (7 more languages under way) Various educational material on tsunamis 23 country assessment missions Status and achievements in the ICG/IOTWS process (mainly through ISDR Flash Appeal)

18. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 18 Two major tasks: - Identify, detect, verify and predict natural extrema, such as tsunami, cyclones, earthquakes with potential implications to mankind (upstream component) - Raise awareness and preparedness to react appropriately to warnings of such extreme events (downstream component) The unseen part of post-disaster recovery process is an Early Warning System

19. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 19 IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience): 1. WARNING CENTRE provides warning guidance incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings; Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings; Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) 2. NDMO (recognized authority) receives warning, immediately evaluates/translates, disseminates public message Additionally, hazard and risk, preparedness guidance  BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER 3.EWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH 4.COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp. for regional and distant tsunamis

20. What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ? The warning centre must provide: 1) Information on the earthquake: – location and magnitude 2) Information on tsunami –time of tsunami arrival –Importance of the tsunami (i.e, est. of amplitude of the tsunami) 3) Seriousness of the warning evaluation of the danger associated rescues to be forecasted (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

21. VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVALVERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVAL VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVALVERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONSVERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS Multi-national, Global Nets Real-time transmission Data Sharing  ALL REQUIRED FOR WARNING FOR WARNING THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring IO Core Seismic Network

22. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 22 A perfect warning will be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency Awareness and preparedness at the country/community level is essential

23. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 23 MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW?  TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP  TO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICE Test communications, end-to-end response Test communications, end-to-end response before the real thing before the real thing Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS  BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS Resilient self-motivated, communities Resilient self-motivated, communities How? People-centered How? People-centered No simple process, no simple answers No simple process, no simple answers TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO:

24. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 24 Successes, Failures - 2006 How the Pacific is responding: 3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl auth 3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl auth 26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom delays due to undersea cable disruption 26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom delays due to undersea cable disruption => PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg) 17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but downstream dissemination and coordination not in place 17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but downstream dissemination and coordination not in place => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + national/local partners; Sept - present / continuing 28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5 28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5 => SWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoing ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), Oct IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007

25. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 25 15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage hampers communications 15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage hampers communications => Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA 15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, 15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No close- in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. International coordination needed. 13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov 13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov => PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007 8 PTWS TWC + IOC Extensive discussion on all aspects of warning Extensive discussion on all aspects of warning 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 - quick response with Indonesia downstream dissemination 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 - quick response with Indonesia downstream dissemination Successes, Failures - 2006 How the Pacific is responding:

26. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 26 1.KNOW and UNDERSTAND tsunamis, risk 2.RECOGNIZE natural warning signals 3.PLAN, and IMPLEMENT warning system (monitor, detect, evaluate, warn) 4.MONITOR and WARN everyone 5.MAKE AWARE diverse audiences 6.KEEP preparedness going forever System readiness - practice to improve Personal responsibility 7.PREVENT damage by making stronger TAKING ACTION - 7 steps

27. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 27 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Observations: - Awareness - Preparedness - Detection, verification - Response - Relief - Recovery Remarks: Training is Capacity Building at all levels, steps for those operating the and in the TWS

28. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 28 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Downstream activities: - Define standards, reference material, codes, definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, vulnerability, - Economical, ecological, societal impact studies - “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the people on the beach - Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system - How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? Ownership, stakeholder attitude

29. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 29 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Downstream activities: - Define planning/zoning standards, ICAM - Develop building codes, ISEEE - Define, introduce unique signage ISO - Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR, IFRC, WHO, WMO - Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, - Advise on streamlining administrations -OECD, UNDP, UN Sec, others

30. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 30 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Research Needs: - hi-tech end: better source identification -earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation modelling, coastal inundation maps - Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication systems, governance, increase awareness, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, coastal planning, building codes

31. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 31 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Research Needs: - Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, - Economical, ecological, societal impact studies - “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the people on the beach - Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system - How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? Ownership, stakeholder attitude

32. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 32 Conclusions Ostandardization of means and contents Ostandardization of means and contents Okeep it simple, get it cheaper Okeep it simple, get it cheaper Oget sustained funding Oget sustained funding Odon’t overload the people involved Odon’t overload the people involved Otraining at all levels, again and again Otraining at all levels, again and again Oupstream: Oupstream: clear responsibilities, instant reaction clear responsibilities, instant reaction -90 s off warning interval cost extra -90 s off warning interval cost extra 7 MUS$/y 7 MUS$/y Odownstream: Odownstream: low tech, simple message, trained response low tech, simple message, trained response

33. Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris 33 A perfect warning will be useless if people do not know what to do in case of an emergency Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential

34. “We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must better equip individuals and communities to withstand them.” “Should disaster strike again, and it will in some part of the world, we must be able to say that we did everything humanly possible to build resilient societies.” former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

35. Thank You