Demographic Dividend for Africa’s Development Transformation By Dr Ademola Olajide Head of Division African Union Commission

Concept of Demographic Dividend Rapid and sustainable economic growth as consequence of a demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality equilibrium; reducing the dependency ratio and increasing the size of the working age population; This large cohort of working age population presents the opportunity to stimulate economic growth – demographic dividend;

Concept of Demographic Dividend On average, African nations are approaching a favorable demographic picture where the size of the labour force is twice that of the dependent population (child and elderly population).

Economic profile Economic growth in Africa has averaged over 5 per cent per annum during 2000 and 2009; Soaring prices for commodities such as oil and minerals have helped lift GDP since 2000; Commodities accounted for only about a third of the newfound growth. The rest resulted from internal structural changes that have spurred the broader domestic economy Given the prevailing global economic challenges, African countries urgently need to elaborate strategies to capitalize on the recent growth momentum;

Economic profile Africa’s labor force is expanding with more than 500 million people of working age, projected to exceed 1.1 billion (by 2040) —more than in China or India—lifting GDP growth; With the current trends, Africa with a large share of the world’s naturally resources, 60% of the global uncultivated arable land should be able to turn this potential (1 in 5 of the planet’s young person) to sustainable and equitable growth;

Population size Africa continues to have one of the highest population growth rates globally; Africa is the youngest continent, with almost 200 million people aged between 15 and 24; Africa is currently experiencing a ‘youth bulge’, with about 42 per cent of the entire population was under the age of 15

Fertility Total fertility as a measure of fertility is defined as the total number of children a woman would bear if fertility rates remained the same during her lifetime. Total fertility rate of Africa and its sub-regions(4) All regions in Africa have a TFR above replacement levels

Fertility and Demographic Dividend in Africa The reductions in fertility rate in Africa is yet to reach levels that experts believe can optimize harnessing the demographic dividend; Several factors account for fertility reduction including urbanization, modernization, education etc; as economic conditions of women increase fertility rates will reduce; Also as fertility rates reduce, economic conditions of women improve;

Mortality Mortality plays a key role in the demographic dividend. “Demographic transition” refers to the change from high and unpredictable mortality and fertility to low and stable mortality and fertility rates. (6) Infant Mortality Rate(7) Under-five Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)(8). Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births) African IMR has decreased: 1990: 172 2000: 154 2010: 119 African Under-5 MR have decreased: 1990: 88 deaths 2010: 57 deaths MMR has decreased: 1990: 850 deaths 2010: 500 deaths

Mortality reduction and Demographic Dividend in Africa; Mortality reduction across Africa as a whole falls below the target set by the Millennium Development Goals; Mortality reduction requires not just a strengthening of the health system but also deliberate attention to issues of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights of all population segments;

Harnessing the “DD” for Africa’s transformation The demographic dividend has been described as that one-time jump in economic growth consequent upon increased economic output of the productive population; Focused policies must therefore be implemented to improve the quality of that crop of human capital as well create opportunities for their productive engagement in economic activities;

Harnessing the demographic dividend EDUCATION GOVERNANCE HEALTH ECONOMICS POPULATION STRUCTURE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Strategies to harness a Demographic Dividend in Africa Promote gender equality, equity and empowerment of women (50%); Improve access to Qualitative Education - Each year of schooling is associated with an increase in wages (10% or more); Enhance health status including access to FP services and information;

Strategies to harvest from the Demographic Dividends in Africa - 2 Strengthen Food and Nutrition Security; - one in five children in Africa is moderately or severely underweight, with significant economic losses (COHA); Facilitate Policy Coherence; e.g. promote decent jobs for young persons, between 2000 and 2008 Africa created 73 million jobs but only 16 million jobs were created for young people 15 and 24;

Conclusion As African states experience current economic growth rates; efforts must be consciously undertaken to optimize the demographic window currently open to the continent; As African economies prepare to soar, we must remember the African proverb; “the quality of a bird’s flight depends on the quality of it’s meal before take off”

Merci beaucoup