1. Agricultural Transformation and Youth Employment in Africa: A Nigerian Case Study By Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong Chinonso Etumnu Fourth Annual Conference on Regional Integration in Africa (ACRIA 4), Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, July 5, 2013.

2. Background-Agriculture in Africa About 70% of sub-Saharan Africans live in poverty based on head count ratio of $2 per day A majority of the poor in SSA live in rural areas and they depend on agriculture for their livelihood The role of agricultural growth in poverty alleviation seems obvious How can agriculture be transformed to reduce poverty?

3. Background - Youth Unemployment Youth unemployment rate is more than twice the adult unemployment rate in most countries in SSA SSA has the youngest and fastest growing population in the world; over 330 million people aged between 15 and 25, of whom about 195 million currently live in rural areas Demographic transition presents an opportunity for SSA to reap the demographic dividend

4. Background Generating employment for young people and promoting agricultural productivity be perceived as complementary development efforts which will have positive impacts on economic and social stability in the region.

5. Background Given the relatively large agricultural sector in African countries and the relatively slow growth rate (and even slower pace of employment generation) of the industrial sector, is it possible to turn to the agricultural sector to generate employment for the population generally and for the youth in particular?

6. CAADP (African Union)---ATA (Nigeria) CAADP is to help AU member states spur and sustain economic growth through agricultural-led development ATA aims to create 3.5 million jobs especially for youths, provide over 2 billion dollars in income for farmers and increase the production of key staples by 20 million metric tons to ensure food security

7. Research Questions What is the potential of the agricultural sector to generate employment for the youth of Nigeria? Which types of jobs can be created for the youth under the ATA? what levels along the value chains will these jobs be created? Which agricultural products (commodities) are likely to create the most jobs for the youth?

8. Definition In this study, we define agriculture to include activities related to the production, processing, transporting, storage and marketing of agricultural output as well as the provision of inputs into agriculture

9. Role of Agriculture in the Nigerian Economy Size of the agriculture sector (% of GDP) CBN, Statistical Bulletin, 2011. Activity Sector1960-1971-1981-1991-2001- 19701980199020002011 Building59222 Services159101216 Trade132014 16 Industry1231413925 Agriculture5524323441

10. Role of agriculture in the Nigerian Economy GDP growth accounting by sectors (in %) CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2011. Period gdpgrowwagrgrowwindgrowwbcgrowwtragrowwsergrow 1961-65 4.841.091.980.410.831.00 1966-70 7.600.824.430.480.642.86 1971-75 23.687.3610.831.774.693.35 1976-80 3.19-0.62-1.290.940.550.21 1981-85 -0.331.17-0.14-0.51-0.08-0.27 1986-90 5.991.802.810.100.760.78 1991-95 1.020.89-0.520.070.260.38 1996-00 3.201.470.990.080.250.50 2001-05 11.406.801.870.111.642.58 2006-11 6.812.650.000.232.261.89

11. Role of Agriculture in the Nigerian Economy Food imports are currently increasing at an unsustainable rate of 11% per annum. Nigeria’s top 4 food imports are Wheat --- $4billion per annum Rice-------$2billion per annum Sugar-----$217 million per annum Fish-------$97 million per annum (Adesina, 2012) Nigeria is importing what it can produce which displaces local production and creates rising unemployment Nigeria has abundant land (40% utilization), water and labour resources (over 54 million in workforce), and favourable climatic conditions suited for agricultural production and food import substitution

12. Youth Employment in Agriculture Programme Value can be added at every stage of production from farm (through processing, warehousing, packaging, transporting, wholesaling, distribution, retailing) to table In addition, agricultural transformation requires the need for new and improved inputs which in turn have to be researched, produced, and distributed to farmers and agro-processes. More jobs can be created along these value chains, along with those to be created in farming.

13. Performance Indicators of the ATA Priority Crops/ Fertilizers IndicatorsAs at 2010By 2015 RicePaddy High quality processed rice Jobs 3.4 million MT Negligible 7.4 million MT 2.5 million MT 1 million jobs CassavaCassava tubers Yield Jobs 34 million MT 12.5 MT/Ha 51 million MT 25 million MT 1.2 million jobs FertilizerNumber of farmers reached550,00020,000,000 CocoaCocoa beans Yield Jobs 250,000MT11.3million MT 2.5 MT/Ha 150,000 CottonCotton Lintlint Yield Jobs 20,000MT 150Kg/Ha 140,000MT 400kg/Ha

14. Rice Transformation Plan (Adesina, 2012)

15. Recommendations Efforts to enhance agricultural growth and those to create employment for young people should be complementary The government should create enabling environment to promote investments in agriculture The youth should be given ample opportunity to make inputs in the design of policy models The agricultural value chain should be private sector driven and agriculture treated as a business

16. Conclusion Agricultural transformation can be a mechanism for creating employment for the youth in Africa Public opinion already holds that the Nigerian agricultural sector is becoming more viable with some good level of increase in youth employment within the enhanced agricultural value chain

17. Thank you for your attention.