Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research April 2015

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change 2014: 2.4%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product ’ Q 2014: 2.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands Mar. 2015: 126,000

Nonfarm Payrolls 2009-Present Monthly change, in thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) Mar. ’15 36,594

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Human Sacrifice 2009-Present Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

U. S. Jobless Rate Seasonally adjusted Mar. ’15: 5.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Feb. ’15: $15.13 trillion 2014 ’15 Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis 2014 ’15 Personal Consumption In trillions Feb. ’15: $12.1 trillion

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption In trillions

Source: U.S. Commerce Department Feb. 2015: $437 billion 2014 ’15 Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Commerce Department Retail Sales 2009-Present Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: Federal Reserve Board Jan. 2015: Industrial Production Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 2014 ’15 Feb. 2015: $967.2 billion

Source: Commerce Department Construction Spending 2009-Present In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates ’15 Feb. ’15: 897,000

Housing Starts New private housing starts, in thousands. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)

Sources: US Census Bureau and National Association of Home Builders Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued (in thousands)

New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands) Feb. 2015: 539, ’15 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

Source: The National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. Feb. 2015: 4.9 million

2000:Q12014:Q32014:Q4Low PointDate of Low Point United States : Q3 Los Angeles : Q3 New York : Q3/Q4 Miami : Q1 Austin : Q4 Dallas : Q3 Houston : Q3 San Antonio : Q3 Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify) Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

Productivity Nonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 4Q 2014: -2.2% ’ Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted ’15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb. 2015: -0.5%

Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) 2014 ’15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb. 2015: 0.2%

Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = Mar. 2015: 101.3

Consumer Confidence: 2009-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board

Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2010=100. Feb. 2015: 121.8

Things to Worry About  Pace of job growth  Unfunded pension liabilities  European sovereign default  Corporate and consumer debt  Federal Deficits/Debt  Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes  Political gridlock  Environmental regulations  Market volatility

Source: Congressional Budget Office Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2012: -$1.09 trillion 2013: -$679.5 billion 2014 Projected: -$483.3 billion 2015 Projected: -$468 billion 2016 Projected: -$467 billion

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce International Goods & Services Trade Deficit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance ’15 Feb. 2015: $35.4 billion

Source: Federal Reserve Board Household Net Worth In trillions ’ Q 2014: $82.9 trillion

Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Personal Bankruptcy Filings Fiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)

Business Bankruptcies , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,319 Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Feb. ’15: 5.8% ’15 Savings Rate As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Savings Rate As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Longest Recession Since 1933 Ended June 2009 Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

Last Data Entry: Jan Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Leading Index 1981-Present Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted U. S. Feb = 5.5% Texas Feb = 4.3% D/FW Feb = 4.1%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Ft. Worth-Arlington MD Nonagricultural Employment

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Nonagricultural Employment

Sales and Use Tax Allocations % Chg Allen27,499,53429,874,63431,856,09135,320, % Arlington86,127,96788,941,22994,043,81093,694, % Dallas215,394,908232,445,766242,456,290256,926, % Fort Worth105,424,832112,745,846118,919,449126,263, % Frisco44,280,59049,889,48858,676,77269,603, % Plano66,325,56368,410,25169,804,50975,393, % Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

Conclusions  The US recession is technically over.  Financial sector risk  Texas has performed better than nation We’ve been “lucky puppies”  Market / consumer confidence is major headwind  Political failure is hurting growth Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility  Housing market will start recovery  Local job market growing

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