1. Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends
University of North Texas
Center for Economic Development and Research
Updated: 7/22/14
Websites:
July 2014

2. U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change
2013:
1.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product
1Q 2014:
-2.9%
– 3rd estimate - updated 6/25/14
Data reflects Historical Revisions due to comprehensive revision to the national Income and Product Accounts released July 31, 2013, by BEA, US Dept. Commerce.
Under “National” find the heading that says “Gross Domestic Product”
Click on “PDF version of the Gross Domestic Product release”
Scroll down to the table titled “Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change from Preceding Period”
Next Release: 2012
’14
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4. Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands
June 2014:
288,000
- Updated 7/7
Scroll down and look under “Employment Situation”
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-Present Monthly change, in thousands
- Updated 7/7
Scroll down and look under “Employment Situation
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

6. Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S
Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
Jun ’14:
31,434
June 2014 job cuts down 41% from May 2014 (52,961) and 20% lower than June 2013 (39,372). – Updated 7/7
Click on the “Press Box” tab at the top
Under Job Cut Report
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

7. Human Sacrifice 2008-Present Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
– Updated 7/7
Click on the “Press Box” tab at the top
Under Job Cut Report
Last Release: May 4, 2011
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas

8. U. S. Jobless Rate Seasonally adjusted
June ’14:
6.1%
Updated 7/7
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

9. Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
May ’14:
$14.6 trillion
– Updated 7/7
Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

10. Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
2013: $14,133.5 Billion
Personal Income and Outlay (press release with Dec. data), Table 2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

11. Personal Consumption In trillions
May ’14:
$11.8 trillion
– Updated 7/7
Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

12. Personal Consumption 2000-13 In trillions
2013: $11,499.3 billion
Personal Income and Outlay (press release with Dec. data), Table 2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

13. Updated 6/24 (no longer in housing charts)
See “housing-charts” on Dallas Fed website

14. Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
June 2014:
$439.9 billion
– Updated 7/22/14
Under “Advance Monthly Retail report” PDF
Use “Retail & Food Services, Total” row.
2-3 week data lag
Updated 2/14/14
Source: U.S. Commerce Department

15. Retail Sales 2007-Present Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
– Updated 7/22/14
Under “Advance Monthly Retail report” PDF
Use “Retail & Food Services, Total” row.
Next Release: December 14, 2011
Source: U.S. Commerce Department

16. Industrial Production Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted
June 2014:
103.9
Annual revisions released March 28, 2014 – Updated 7/22/14
Link on homepage under Select Statistical Releases
Source: Federal Reserve Board

17. Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
May 2014:
$956.1 billion
– Updated 7/7
Click on “Construction Put in Place”
One month lag on data
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

18. Construction Spending 2007-Present In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
– Updated 7/7
Click on “Construction Put in Place”
One month lag on data
Source: Commerce Department

19. Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
June ’14: 893,000
– Updated 7/22/14
Click on PDF version of Current Press Release
2-3 week data lag
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;
U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

20. Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
2013: 923,400
Click on PDF version of Current Press Release
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;
U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

21. Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)
43.8
20.8
On the Dallas Morning News website, Jan. 9, 2014, article:
Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies

22. Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued (in thousands)
49.6
36.2
20.8
On the Dallas Morning News website, Feb. 4, 2014 article:
Sources: Dallas Morning News;
National Association of Home Builders

23. New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands)
May 2014:
504,000
- Updated 6/24
Click on Current Press Release pdf file
One month data lag
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;
U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

24. Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units.
May 2014:
4.89 million
Realtor.org and type in “existing-home sales” or look in Research & Statistics – Updated 6/24
One month data lag
Source: The National Association of Realtors

25. Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability
(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)
2000:Q1
2013:Q2
2013:Q3
Low Point
Date of Low Point
United States
62.8
69.3
64.5
40.4
2006 : Q3
Los Angeles
40.2
28.3
21.1
1.8
New York
42.1
29.8 23
5.1
2006 : Q3/Q4
Miami
58.8
57.8
54.5 10
2007 : Q1
Austin
57.5
64.2
62.9
49.9
2000 : Q4
Dallas
65.3
63.4
60.4
53.7
2007 : Q3
Houston
66.2 64
61.5
47.4
San Antonio
63.3
68.7
65.7
46.5
Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index
Through Q – Updated 2/7/14
Click on the link that says “The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index: Complete History by Metropolitan Area (1991-Current)”
Released: Check when Quarterly stuff is released
Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

26. Productivity Nonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
1Q 2014:
-3.2%
– 1Q 2014 Revised (6/4/14)
Click on Productivity link
’14
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.
June 2014:
0.4%
– Updated 7/22/14
Per Feb 2014 press release: BLS changed from “stage-of-processing to final demand-intermediate demand aggregation system” of reporting
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

28. Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)
June 2014:
0.3%
– Updated 7/22/14
“Consumer Price Index”
Scroll down and look at PDF
Scroll down and look at table
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

29. Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S
Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
June 2014:
85.2
– Updated 7/7
Look under the Economic Indicators box at right of page, click on Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board

30. Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S
Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
– Updated 7/7
Look under the Economic Indicators box at right of page, click on Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board

31. Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.
June 2014:
102.2
– Updated 7/22
Click on “U.S.” in the Economic Indicators box at the right
Approx. 3 week data lag
Source: The Conference Board

32. www.Dallasfed.org website Updated 7/22
Click Research & Data  Regional Economy  Regional Economic Analysis  MORE Regional Analysis
Quick Slide Show on the Regional Economy is at bottom.
US data: Click Research & Data  US Economy  Slide Show on the US Economy

33. Things to Worry About Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities
European sovereign default
Corporate and consumer debt
Federal Deficits/Debt
Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes
Political gridlock
Environmental regulations
Market volatility

34. Budget Deficit In billions of dollars
2012: -$1.09 trillion
2013: -$679.5 billion
2014 Projected: -$492 billion
2015 Projected: -$469 billion
2016 Projected: -$536 billion
(search term “budget deficit”) – Updated 6/24
Historical Tables Link, Table 1.1 Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits
Source: Congressional Budget Office

35. International Goods & Services Trade Deficit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.
May 2014:
$44.4 billion
– Updated 7/22/14
Click on “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services”
4-6 week data lag
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

36. Household Net Worth In trillions
1Q 2014:
$81.8 trillion
– Updated 6/24
Financial Accounts of the United States – Z.1
Look at Balance Sheets
Next Release: Sept 2014
’14
Source: Federal Reserve Board

37. Updated 7/22

38. Personal Bankruptcy Filings Fiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)
2013: 1,072,807
Click on Statistics > Bankruptcy Statistics >2013 Bankruptcy filings
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

39. Business Bankruptcies
1999
37,884
2007
28,322
2000
35,472
2008
43,546
2001
40,099
2009
60,837
2002
38,540
2010
56,282
2003
35,037
2011
47,806
2004
34,317
2012
40,075
2005
39,201
2013
33,212
2006
19,695
---
Click on Statistics > Bankruptcy Statistics >2013 Bankruptcy filings
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

40. Savings Rate As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
May ’14:
4.8%
– Updated 7/7
Personal Income and Outlays press release, Table 1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

41. Savings Rate 2000-2013 As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
2013: 4.5%
Personal Income and Outlays (Dec. press release), Table 2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;
Bureau of Economic Analysis

42. Longest Recession Since 1933 Ended June 2009
Harvey’s chart – Jessica Renier if you have questions. 21 in Sept.
Now our copy in recession
Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

43. Pictures from Federal Reserve Updated 7/22

44. Updated 7/22

45. Updated 7/22

46. Updated 7/22

47. Updated 7/22

48. TXLI Components Changes Mar-Apr-May
Updated 7/22
Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

49. Texas Leading Index 1981-Present Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Go to the Dallas Federal Reserve Website
Click Research & Data  Under “Explore the Regional Economy” click Regional Economic Data  Dallas Fed Indexes tab’
Updated 7/22
Last Data Entry: May 2014
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

50. Updated 7/22

51. Updated 6/24

52. Next look at Metro Areas and focus on DFW
Updated 7/22

53. Updated 7/22

54. Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro
U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted
*D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted
– Updated 7/22
Texas Labor Market Review
U. S. June 2014 = 6.1%
Texas June 2014 = 5.1%
D/FW June 2014 = 5.4%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

55. Ft. Worth-Arlington MSA Nonagricultural Employment
From current “Texas Labor Market Review” – Updated 7/22
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

56. Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Nonagricultural Employment
From current “Texas Labor Market Review” – Updated 7/22
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

57. Sales and Use Tax Allocations
2010
2011
2012
2013
% Chg 12-13
Allen
24,606,228
27,499,534
29,874,634
31,856,091
6.63%
Arlington
83,143,848
86,127,967
88,941,229
94,043,810
5.74%
Dallas
204,732,898
215,394,908
232,445,766
242,456,290
4.31%
Fort Worth
100,569,555
105,424,832
112,745,846
118,919,449
5.48%
Frisco
40,303,106
44,280,590
49,889,488
58,676,772
17.61%
Plano
58,888,948
66,325,563
68,410,251
69,804,509
2.04%
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

58. Conclusions The US recession is technically over.
Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-2013
Financial sector risk
Texas has performed better than nation
We’ve been “lucky puppies”
Market / consumer confidence is major headwind
Political failure is hurting growth
Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility
Housing market will start recovery
Local job market growing

59. Questions?
Contact info:
Last Updated Presentation: July 22, 2014