The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.

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Presentation transcript:

The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG. World USA Germany

Source: Loanware and Bondware. Bonds Syndicated lending Cross border bank flows to developing countries continue meagre billions USD, 3-month moving average

Industrial countries

Employment losses ease… with potential positive effects on spending retail volume growth (y/y) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Retail sales [L] Change in employment [R]

U.S. economic activity is stabilzing… but bank loan charge-offs surging ISM composite economic activity index [left]; Bank charge-offs (% total C&I loans) [right] Source: Institute for Supply Management; Federal Reserve Board. C&I charge-offs [right] ISM composite index [left]

U.S. trade developments may offer boost for 2 nd quarter GDP export and import volumes, ch% saar Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Export volumes Import volumes

Japan’s trade and production take a sharp leg up over May/June export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. Production Export volume

Labor markets deteriorate quickly while spending continues to falter unemployment rate (%) [left]; retail sales, ch% yr-on-yr [right] Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Retail sales [right] Unemployment rate % [left]

Japan’s inflation drops well into negative territory Source: Bank of Japan. Toyko CPI and corporate goods prices, ch%, y/y Headline CPI Corporate goods prices (PPI)

European labor markets continue to weaken, but sentiment up on lower CPI unemployment rate (%) [left]; EC consumer sentiment [right] Source: EUROSTAT and European Commission. Euro Area consumer sentiment [right] Unemployment rate % [left]

German orders and production revive in April and May factory orders and industrial production ch% saar Domestic orders Industrial production Source: Bundesbank. Export orders

Euro Area CPI in negative ground Source: Eurostat. HICP headline and core, ch% y/y and EURIBOR (%) EURIBOR Headline HICP HICP-core

Industrial production

Deep peak-to-trough declines in industrial production are now being reversed Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG. World USA Germany

Global manufacturing looking up Source: JPMorgan-Chase

International trade

World export growth appears to be bottoming exports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) Source: World Bank data.

Global imbalances ease moderately as U.S. deficit and China surplus narrow goods trade balance, U.S. $-bn, seasonally adjusted, annualized China United States Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

Eurozone exports begin to support more moderate declines in production IP and exports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) Source: Eurostat. Exports Industrial Production

Oil prices

Oil prices and OECD oil stocks $/bbl million bbl Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

World Oil Production (mb/d) Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. Non-OPEC Non-OPEC x FSU OPEC

WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Jul 13 $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in 2009 Feb 18 Jun 11 Source: NYMEX.

Non-oil commodity prices

Food prices edged higher in June (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Metals prices ease following large gains in first-half 2009 Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. Copper Nickel Aluminium

Freight rates fall on slowdown in bulk trade Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

International Finance

Flows slowed in June; first-half volumes halved from a year earlier Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Source: Loanware and Bondware. Bonds Syndicated lending Cross border bank flows remain well below the levels seen in previous years billions USD, 3-month moving average

EM assets rebound from recent corrections MSCI equity index, USD [left]; EM bonds spreads, bps [right] Source: Morgan-Stanley and JPMorgan-Chase. EMBIG spreads [right] MSCI equity index [left]

Currencies

Source: Thomson/Datastrea m. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar weakens vs yen… trading range around $1.40 against euro USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Dollar slips vs EM currencies in seconed quarter percentage change (USD per LCU) (%) Source: Thomson/Datastrea m. First quarter 2009 Second quarter 2009 Stronger Local Currency

Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. current balance improves sharply in first quarter to 2.9% of GDP billions U.S. dollars Income Services Non-oil BOT Oil balance Transfers Current account

FOCUS Developments in real effective exchange rates

Real effective exchange rates depreciate in most of the world’s largest economies January 2008 = 100 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG. China Japan USA Euro Area

Real effective appreciation for commodity exporters’ as commodity prices stage a comeback January 2008 = 100 Australia Canada Brazil South Africa Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.

REERs bounce off lows of early 2009 in countries exporting capital goods and autos BIS effective exchange rate, broad Indices,January 2008 = 100 Source: Bank for International Settlements. Czech Republic Hungary South Korea

The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

NOT USED in STRMG Using formats for new charts

Leading indicators point to bottom in U.S. and E.U., cont’d slowdown in Japan Composite Leading Indicators % ch, (y/y, sa) Source: OECD, July Euro Area United States Japan

Diverse developing-country GDP outturns for first-quarter 2009 GDP ch% saar Source: Haver Analytics.

Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations. U.S. GDP revised to substantial 6.2% decline in fourth quarter 2008 growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports

EM equities outperform mature markets over 2009 to date Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream return by period Emerging markets Mature markets * through March 13

Sovereign credit risk has increased sharply across emerging markets Sovereign CDS spreads in basis points Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team. // 4,600 // 3,680

Manufacturing output collapses across high-income OECD countries manufactures output, ch% (3m/3m saar) USA Eurozone -56.5% Japan Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

Industrial output collapses in ECA as trade partners fall deeper into recession industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) Czech Republic Europe and Central Asia Hungary Turkey Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

Net foreign purchases of U.S. assets turn to outflow as of the fourth quarter net foreign purchases USD billions Source: U.S. Treasury ‘TICS’ database.