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Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013

2 (% y/y ) World GDP growth (IMF) 3.6% Oct‘12 4.6% Oct‘12

3 GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies 3 % q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages) Emerging markets Advanced economies

4 United States GDP performance Index, Q1 2006 = 100 US

5 %y/y US leading indicator

6 US$ trillion US statutory limit on Federal Debt US debt ceiling US government debt

7 $ billion US Federal Reserve Total Assets QE 1 QE 2 QE 3

8 %y/y Euro-area leading indicator

9 Euro-area: economic sentiment indicator Index, 100 = average Core of Euro-area Periphery of Euro-area

10 Index Q1 2006 = 100 Euro-area GDP index (real) vs US real GDP index USA GDP Euro-area GDP

11 % unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Germany

12 % unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Greece

13 % Developed vs Emerging market inflation rate Emerging markets Developed markets

14 % US consumer inflation

15 % Euro-area Consumer inflation in the Euro-area

16 %y/y Japan consumer inflation rate 2% target set in Jan 2013 Headline inflation Core inflation

17 % UK Euro-area US Euro-area, US, Japan and UK official interest rates Japan

18 %, y/y, real terms China real GDP growth

19 China rebalancing needed % of total China GDP Fixed investment activity Consumer activity

20 %y/y Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth

21 %y/y, real GDP growth, average over 10 years Sub-Saharan Africa fastest growing economies Past 10 years

22 % of GDP Sub-Saharan Africa Government Debt as % of GDP

23 $ billion Sub-Saharan Africa net foreign direct investment

24 South Africa’s international perception

25 %, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real SA consumer disposable income

26 %, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real Consumer incomeConsumer spending SA consumer spending vs disposable income

27 Index SA manufacturing activity vs retail activity SA retail activity SA manufacturing activity SA economic recovery has been consumption based, rather than production based

28 % of total SA manufacturing production as % of GDP

29 Rbn SA trade balance – 12 month moving average

30 % over past three months. Personal loans SA growth in consumer unsecured credit

31 Index SA consumer confidence (BER)

32 SA formal sector employment Million Still 75 000 formal sector jobs below the peak

33 Thousands SA mining employment

34 %q/q, annualised Growth in fixed investment spending

35 %y/y OECD leading indicator vs SA leading indicator OECD leading indicator (lhs) SA leading indicator (rhs) %y/y

36 SA exports to Africa R billion, 6-month moving average SA exports more to Africa than to North and South America combined

37 R Billions SA travel receipts World Soccer Cup 2010

38 R Billions SA net travel account

39 Building plans passed – residential sector Rbn, constant prices, 12-month moving average

40 % y/y SA headline CPI forecast

41 % SA Interest Rate Forecast Prime rate Repo rate

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