Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. economy pulls out of recession with 3.5% growth in Q3-2009 (saar) growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Investment Government Consumption Net exports
A favorable employment turn in October with retail sales maintaining momentum retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Change in employment [R] Retail sales [L]
Manufacturing has led recovery but services emerging to growth Headline PMI indices for manufacturing and services sector [50=+growth] Source: Institute for Supply Management. PMI manufacturing PMI Services
Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Japan’s GDP growth beats expectations for the third quarter at 4.8% (saar) growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net Exports Stocks Government Consumption Investment
Japan’s export- and production growth waning into the third quarter export volumes and manufacturing production, ch% saar Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Production Goods export volumes
Source: Japan Cabinet Office. New Japanese government inherits debt equivalent to 190% of GDP general government balance as a share of GDP in percent
Euro Area emerges from recession on growth in the ‘Big-3” economies GDP growth, q/q percentage change saar Source: Eurostat.
Euro Area production up in September on exports and stock rebuilding manufacturing output, German and French export volumes, ch% (saar) Germany exports Source: Eurostat. Euro Area IP France exports
Houshold spending still a damper on growth retail volume growth, Euro Area, Germany and France, (ch%, 3mma, y/y) Source: EUROSTAT. France retail volumes Germany retail volumes Euro Area retail volumes
Flows to emerging markets surge to $50 billion in October… a new record Source: DECPG Finance Team.
Low interest rates in high-income countries contribute to inflows to emerging markets Three-month interbank interest rates (%) Sources: Thomson Datastream and World Bank.
Deteriorating credit quality for EM sovereigns net rating: number of upgrades minus downgrades* Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations. *Includes rating actions from Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch.
Source: Thomson/Datastrea m. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar’s fall from Spring peaks now 20% vs Euro…10% against yen USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]
Source: JPMorgan-Chase. Nominal effective rate [NEER] Dollar fall is half that of 2002-07… but decline compressed into 6 months Indices, Jan 1990=100. Real effective rate [REER] 25% decline 12% decline
EM curencies surge on strong capital flows to domestic markets U.S. dollar per local currency, percent change Source: DEC Prospects Group.