Building Up Defense Capabilities Good afternoon Minister, Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for inviting SHAPE to the SOFIA SECURITY FORUM. It is a perfect place and time to discuss dynamics in the security environment and challenges facing us concerning the Wales Summit Declaration. Para 3 of the mentioned document states: (quote) Today we reaffirm our commitment to fulfill all three core tasks set out in our Strategic Concept: collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security.”…(unquote) and in para 48 (quote) …“NATO will maintain the full range of capabilities necessary to deter and defend against any threat to the safety and security of our populations, wherever it should arise.”(unquote) How to build up defense capabilities? The NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP) is one of the tools facilitating the timely identification, development and delivery of the necessary range of forces, as well as associated military and non-military capabilities, to undertake the Alliance’s full spectrum of missions. Ideally, NATO should be able to draw on a collective pool of forces and capabilities that can be rapidly configured and/or reconfigured to meet the widest range of operational contingencies. I am Major General Biziewski, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Joint Capabilities, Operational and Training and Exercises Planning. The defense capabilities development is one of the main domains within the PLANS Directorate activities. I am pleased to discuss with you such a vital part of the strategic planning. MG Jerzy BIZIEWSKI DCOS PLANS SHAPE NATO UNCLASSIFIED

AGENDA NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) Overview: NATO Defense Planning Model; NATO Defense Planning Process: Step 1. Political Guidance; Step 2. Determine Requirements; Step 3. Apportion Requirements and Set Targets; Step 4. Facilitate Implementation; Step 5. Review Results. NDPP Enhancement. Questions. So, in discussing the NATO Defense Planning Process I will provide you with a general background on the NDPP and an overview of it. Then I will focus on the way ahead identified to enhance the process in each of its main steps and how we are forging strong links between NDPP and Operations Planning. Finally, we will stand a chance of discussing any question you have. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO Defence Planning Model Establish Political Guidance Determine Requirements Apportion Requirements Set Targets Facilitate Implementation Review Results Improving Alliance Capabilities The NDPP model comprises 5 steps. The goal is not only to determine capabilities to be maintained for the achievement of NATO’s Level of Ambition, but also is a process developed to improve and balance those capabilities. That is why we have a 4-year cycle, with a few exceptions. Out-of-cycle activities are also possible if the need is determined to be more urgent. The NDPP provides a framework to harmonize national and Alliance defence-planning activities to facilitate the timely identification, development and delivery of the range of forces and capabilities necessary to undertake the Alliance’s missions. This continuous process has five steps shown here. • Step 1 – Establish Political Guidance (PG). • Step 2 – Determine Requirements. • Step 3 – Apportion Requirements and Set Targets. • Step 4 – Facilitate Implementation. • Step 5 – Review Results. 5 steps, 4-year cycle  Provide the Operational Commander with continuously improved capabilities that are more tailored and more capable to meet the Alliance’s evolving missions, roles, and tasks NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NATO Defense Planning Process Step 1 Establish Political Guidance Step 1 Establish Political Guidance Step 2 Determine Requirements Step 2 Determine Requirements Step 3 Apportion Requirements and Set Targets Step 3 Apportion Requirements and Set Targets Step 4 Facilitate Implementation Step 4 Facilitate Implementation Step 5 Review Results Step 5 Review Results DPPC(R) RPPB NATO Strategic Concept Capability Requirements Review (CRR) (every four years) DPST approves SCs lead NATO review & report develops targets Phase 1: Analyse/ Interpret High Level Guidance (Bi-SC document) leads ACT supports ACO Develop Targets and apportion Multinational NATO Political Guidance (reviewed at least every four years) Ambition (LOA) NATO Level of Guiding Principles (GP) & Planning Assumptions (PA) Draft packages Capability Review (every two years) notes (every four years) National DPST (Reinvestment targets) Support with nations Meetings RPPB IS leads solutions develops preliminary first draft develop further MC BLOCK 1:ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS Phase 2: Capture Future Security Environment (Bi-SC document) Determine Capability Shortfall solutions SCs lead reports DPST DPPC(R) approve endorse Mission Types (MT) & Generic Planning Situations (GPS) NATO Implementation Common-funded Targets Progress Report NATO Targets Burden Sharing DPST submits notes NPG DPC NAC Ministers State and Head of Gov Multilateral Examinations (28-1) Agreed Targets DPPC(R) approves develops and Nations Learned Lessons Operations Risk Assessment Summary report and prepares reply Reasonable challenge DPPC(R) National – Multinational Implementation adopt NATO Capability Survey CUR LL Alignment short-mid-long term requirements MTD*, CS, CHF, CAL, CC & CS Associated Risk submits NPG DPC NAC Ministers (including STANAGS, AP’s) MC Supplementary Guidance (MC400, CRR, PSA, SRA) supports SCs Phase 3: Requirements determination Minimum Capability Requirements (MCR) determination IS leads DPPC(R) by exception decides Monitor Facilitate actions Identifies DPST (Bi-SC document) Ultimate Goal of NDPP: facilitate the timely identification, development and delivery of the necessary range of forces, as well as associated military and non-military capabilities, to undertake the Alliance’s full spectrum of missions NATO agreed Intelligence MC161 BLOCK 2: REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS Dialogue with Planning Domains domains Planning Future Trends Phase 4: Integrated Cross-check of identified MCR Interoperability, Standardisation and Jointness Conduct NATO Capability Review DPST This diagram highlights the roles and responsibilities in the defence planning process, as well as the internal staffing practices and responsibilities. The 5 steps at the top give a general knowledge of the headline processes and the details underneath shows the complexity of the process. It is organized that way in order to ensure that National investments are thoroughly analysed, and appropriately accommodated under the continuous supervision of Nations being represented at numerous NATO bodies. We have gone only once through the whole NATO Defense Planning Process along presented above model. It has been summarized that it is not a perfect one, too complex and too foggy for Nations, and it requires revision. NATO and nations existing & planned capabilities Compare MCR with existing & planned capabilities produces IS leads * Acronyms: MTD: Mission to Task Decomposition CS: Case Studies CHF: Capability Hierarchy Framework CAL: Capability Assignment Logic CC & CS: Capability Codes and Capability Statements MC Suitability & Risk Assessment Bi-SC Suitability & Risk Assessment Country’s draft assessments Phase 5: Gap analysis IMS leads (Bi-SC document) Country’s draft assessments Country’s draft assessments Country’s draft assessments FORCE GENERATION produces Country’s draft assessments Reinvestment targets Capability surplus leads ACO supports ACT MC BLOCK 3: REQUIREMENTS ASSESSMENT Risk Analysis Capability Shortfalls NATO Capabilities Report Multilateral Meetings (28-1) Country’s draft assessments Country’s draft assessments Capabilities to be maintained Country’s draft assessments Country’s draft assessments Meeting with nations prepares endorse reviews and approves References: PO(2009)0042, Outline Model for a NATO Defence Planning Process, 02 Apr 09 PO(2009)0079, Implementation and Transition Plan – NDPP, 10 Jun 09. DSG(2009)0858, 8 Oct 09 Overhaul of the DRR working papers and presentations Phase 6: Shortfalls prioritisation Priority Shortfall Areas (PSA) DPPC(R) submits NPG DPC NAC Ministers DPPC(R) (Bi-SC recommendation) operations develops endorse NATO Capabilities Progress Update DPST presents Synopsis of MCR including PSA MC DPPC(R) notes (intermediate years) NATO UNCLASSIFIED SHAPE CPP-CAM-FCR POC: CDR Manso. Version 2 (February 2011)

[International Staff lead] STEP 1 – ESTABLISH POLITICAL GUIDANCE [International Staff lead] NATO STRATEGIC CONCEPT POLITICAL GUIDANCE MILITARY COMMITTEE SUPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE LoA Step 1 – Establish Political Guidance (PG). The NATO Strategic Concept (Lisbon NOV 2010) and the Summit Declaration (last Wales Summit Declaration Sep 2014) as well as other documents create basis for the Defense Planning and Policy Committee (DPPC = Nations) who drafts the Political Guidance (PG) document. The PG states the overall aims and objectives for the Alliance , the NATO Level of Ambition, covering the NATO Three Core Tasks (Collective Defense, Crisis Management, Cooperative Security and provide guidance how the security situation should influence Defense Planners. It may focus on certain capabilities like the usability targets (in percentage) of certain services being deployable and the ability to sustain on deployed operations. It may specify the Alliance’s top capability-related priorities. The document provides also a resource guidance addressing defense expenditure, proportion of GDP devoted to defense, equipment expenditure as indicators of the burden. The Political Guidance serves as a single, unified document to guide the Alliance’s defense planning activities and inform those of nations individually. It provides also with “Specific guidelines to the NMAs and planning domains” creating the Defense Planning Staff Team, with Allied Command Transformation in the lead. The Military Committee Supplementary Guidance might provide further guidance to the Strategic Commands. It is the moment of the process where Nations drive it from a threat-based [planning identifies potential adversaries and evaluates their expected capabilities, now and in the future..], a capability-based perspective [planning identifies the generic capabilities needed to accomplish defined tasks] or a balance between them. In resume it is here where Nations are going to establish the benchmark of the Defense Planning Process indicating how to cope with new risks and threats, and what will be the operational requirements of the future. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

[ACT IN THE LEAD, ACO SUPPORTING] CAPABILITY REQUIREMENTS REVIEW STEP 2 – Determine Requirements [ACT IN THE LEAD, ACO SUPPORTING] CAPABILITY REQUIREMENTS REVIEW HIGH LEVEL GUIDANCE Planning Assumptions FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Planning Situations REQUIREMENTS DETERMINATION Minimum Capability Requirements Step 2 – Determine Requirements. It is the most complex part of the process. The Strategic Commands are responsible for identifying the complete set of capabilities required to meet the ambitions set out in the PG in a Minimum Capability Requirements [MCR]. Later on, comparing this MCR and the existing and planned multinational, national and NATO-owned capabilities potentially available for Alliance operations we will identify both those capabilities to be maintained and the NATO shortfalls. Finally, the higher-risk shortfalls are aggregated to form the Priority Shortfall Areas [PSA] , which, if solved, offer the greatest potential for improvement. It is in this part of the process where all the inputs, from the future/present security environment, to the different emerging risks and threats are taking into consideration, to conform an MCR that should cope with the LoA stated in the PG. Later on I will present you the evolution of this part of the process. GAP ANALYSIS Shortfalls, Surplus, To be maintained SHORTFALLS PRIORITISATION Bi-SC Priority Shortfall Areas NATO UNCLASSIFIED

STEP 3 – Apportion of Requirements, Set Targets [IS IN THE LEAD] DETERMINE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP TARGETS APPORTION TARGETS - National - NATO - Multinational RISK ASSESSMENT Step 3 – Apportion Requirements and Set Targets. The apportionment of requirements and setting of targets at Step 3 of the NDPP is the primary means to influence national defense planning efforts directly. The MCR is apportioned in target packages, both for nations and for NATO, to deliver the required capabilities and mitigate shortfalls. Possible multinational and collective solutions to address the Priority Shortfall Areas are presented to the DPPC for approval - nations will agree or reject targets. A summary report, including a risk assessment (input provided by NATO Military Authorities) reflecting the targets not agreed and the associated impact on the ability to achieve the Level of Ambition (LOA), is presented to the Defense Ministers. It is the part of the process where NATO impulse the improvement and balance of the capabilities among the Allies, and where BURDEN SHARE and REASONABLE CHALLENGE are the reference in the apportion of TARGET to the nations. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Out of Cycle STEP. NATO Initiatives: Smart Defense STEP 4 – Facilitate Implementations Out of Cycle STEP. NATO Initiatives: Smart Defense Framework Nation Concept Connected Forces Initiative Multinational Initiatives. Step 4 – Facilitate Implementation. This Step could be consider as an out-of –cycle activity, as the development and implementation of new capabilities is something that is going to take longer than a few months. NATO impulse this Step with initiatives as: Smart Defence [SD]. A concept that encourages Allies to cooperate in developing, acquiring and maintaining military capabilities to meet current security problems in accordance with the new NATO strategic concept Framework Nation Concept [FMC]. A concept aims to find long-term partnerships facilitated by a Nation that is willing to provide a lead or ‘framework’, with a focus on capability development across a broad spectrum of areas within the group, together with training and exercises, Connected Forces Initiative [CFI]. An initiative to retain and develop the ability to work effectively with both allies and partners, …and of course all the Multinational initiatives aimed to provide updated capabilities required by NATO. NATO UNCLASSIFIED

STEP 5 – Review Results (every two years) CAPABILITY REVIEW DEFENCE PLANNING CAPABILITY SURVEY IS in the lead COUNTRY ASSESSMENT BI-LATERAL / MULTILATERAL MEETINGS IS in the lead CAPABILITIES REPORT MC SUITABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Step 5 – Review Results. The NATO Capability Review, conducted biennially, scrutinises and assesses Allies’ defence and financial plans and collective efforts, to provide an overall assessment of the degree to which the Alliance capabilities are able to meet the PG, including its LOA; the Review provides feedback and recommendations for the next cycle. It begins with a Defence Planning Capability survey to Nations. With the outcome of the survey a Nations’ assessment is provided. Then the SCs considered the impact on SACEUR’s ability to conduct his missions and the Bi-SC SRA is produced; this is used by the MC to produce its own SRA , which assesses the military suitability of the plans and the degree of military risk associated with them. Finally, based on nations’ assessments and the MC SRA, the DPPC prepares the NATO Capabilities report to the NAC and to Defence Ministers. ACO in the lead NATO UNCLASSIFIED

NDPP ENHANCEMENT NDPP First Cycle weaknesses: Harmonization; Inflexibility; Complexity. Enhancing initiatives for all 5 steps of the process IS is leading the overall E-NDPP package SCs Tasking for STEP 2: simple, less time consuming, adaptable; analytical rigor, traceability and transparency are not compromised; Allies to be able to assess the key elements of the process, through better understanding and visibility of its conduct. During the first cycle of the NDPP, which is a transitional one, some weak points have been identified: it has not been sufficiently effective in harmonizing national and NATO defense planning efforts (explain……….), lack of the agility necessary to respond to new initiatives or changing political imperatives and overly complex to the point of being incomprehensible to the non-specialists. Enhancing initiatives have been taken for all the 5 steps of the NDPP. The International Staff, in close cooperation with ACT and ACO is leading the overall E-NDPP. For STEP 2 enhancement, the Strategic Commanders (SCs) were tasked in March 2013 to: “…provide recommendations to Allies on how to make it (the Capability Requirement Review - CRR) as simple, less time consuming and adaptable as possible, while ensuring that analytical rigor, traceability and transparency, and therefore, credibility, are not compromised and to ensure that the requirement for Allies to be able to assess the key elements of the process, through better understanding and visibility of its conduct, is taken into account…” NATO UNCLASSIFIED

STEP 2 – Determine Requirements. Enhance linkage between Operations and Defence Planning. Short and Medium term. Long term: set via a NATO vision i.e. NATO 2030. Threat vs capability based approach. SPECIFIC GENERIC ST MT LT 2019 2024 2030 Time & Space; Resources Allocation; Tasks; Acquisition; ……… As it was mentioned earlier, the ACT in lead with ACO in supporting role are responsible for Step 2. In our opinion the short to medium term planning would benefit from an enhanced linkage between NATO Defense Planning and NATO Operational Planning because it will ensure the use of well-established military analysis to derive MCR for the relevant period of time. A better use of the Standing Defense Plans (SDP) and Contingency Plans (COP) will enable meaningful war gaming and exercises that test the requirements and would be conducted by operational commanders and staff.  Besides the link to Operational Planning, such a method could also ensure a better linkage to short and medium term capability and resource planning. Planning should be seen as a continuous effort and not an effort that restarts with every cycle. Lessons should be learned from the outcomes and updates continuously fed into the planning cycle. In the short term, there are a range of processes that provide information on the balancing of tasks and resources. The long term requirements, 10 years and beyond, should be set via the development of a NATO vision, ie. NATO 2030, to influence Nations' defense planning before it is "locked". Last 10 years we have been planning along capability based approach for out of area operations. Due to fundamental changes in security environment we are going to determine requirements in line with the threat based approach for a Collective Defense and CRO out of area operations. The process is flexible enough and responsive to both challenges: specific and generic planning. And it will encourage NATO planners to be more precise and clear in capabilities statements focusing on linking the defense planning with the operational planning. The “platforms” related capability statements will play a lower role. 11 NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Questions? Thank you NATO UNCLASSIFIED I hope I’ve given you an overview of the way NATO builds up our capabilities and shown that we are always revising our processes to ensure they are as efficient and as relevant as they can be. Are there any questions? NATO UNCLASSIFIED