Kystdirektoratet Gr. 001-16-36 Nr.1 Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea Pilot study Ribe Dike Progress report of sub-project SP7 Workshop 12 - 13 May 2004,

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Presentation transcript:

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.1 Risk Assessment for the Wadden Sea Pilot study Ribe Dike Progress report of sub-project SP7 Workshop May 2004, Norden, Germany

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.2 Contents Location of pilot study area (by T. Piontkowitz) Approach (by T. Piontkowitz) Failure probability of the Ribe sea defence (by A. Kortenhaus) Vulnerability analysis (by T. Piontkowitz) Questions & discussion

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.3 Location of pilot study area Ribe Dike length ca. 18,4 km protected area ha year of construction reinforcement reinforcement (flattening of outer slope) sluices (Ribe Å and Konge Å) and 2 smaller outlets

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.4 Cross-sections and topography River, stream Wetland Lake Ribe Dike Profile + stationing no. Sluice Salt marsh edge under 0 0,0 - 0,5 m 0,5 - 1,0 m 1,0 - 1,5 m 1,5 - 2,0 m 2,0 - 2,5 m 2,5 - 3,0 m 3,0 - 3,5 m 3,5 - 4,0 m 4,0 - 4,5 m 4,5 - 5,0 m over 5 m (DVR90) selected from a number of existing cross-sections (former surveys) 4 cross-sections north of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 250°), 2 cross-sections south of the sharp bend (perpendicular wave direction 290°)

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.5 Approach Risk assessment divided into three parts Part 2 Vulnerability analysis based on ProDeich model (cooperation with LWI) 6 cross-sections include valuation analysis and damage analysis data collection by DCA damage models in cooperation with consultants results: (i) spatial use and material assets over elevation (ii) definition of damage models Part 3 Dike breach scenarios and inundation simulation definition of dike breach scenarios inundation simulation Part 1 Failure probability of Ribe dike Risk of Ribe sea defence and its hinterland

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.6

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.7 Valued Direct Tangible Damage Buildings Electronic installation Pumps High voltage line Economic sector Crop Stock Movable property Household Movable property Infrastructure Roads Railway Not Valued Direct Intangible Damage Number of population Night and day population Vehicles (are normally removed during evacuation) Tourism (tourist on the spot, number of beds) Vulnerability analysis - risk elements

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.8 BBR-registry: Local registry Containing 128 columns Land registry Registry of town and country planning Registry of valuation for rating Meadow of different crops Registry of real estate Registry of livestock population OIS-registry: Public information registry ESR-registry: SVUR-registry: PLAN-registry: MATR-registry: CHR-registry: Crop: Vulnerability analysis – data sources

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.9 Topography Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.10 Fresh water discharge Stream Wetland Lake Ribe Dike Profile Lock Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.11 Building Town centre Greenhouse High settlement Industry Cemetery Low settlement Ribe Dike Salt marsh edge under 0 m DVR90 0,0 - 0,5 m DVR90 0,5 - 1,0 m DVR90 1,0 - 1,5 m DVR90 1,5 - 2,0 m DVR90 2,0 - 2,5 m DVR90 2,5 - 3,0 m DVR90 3,0 - 3,5 m DVR90 3,5 - 4,0 m DVR90 4,0 - 4,5 m DVR90 4,5 - 5,0 m DVR90 over 5 m DVR90 Settlement

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.12 Infrastructure Ribe Dike Tele pylon Pumps Windmill High-voltage line Second road Road over 6 m Road 3-6 m Path Expressway Railway track Technical area Area

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.13 Land use Salt marsh edge Town centre Cemetery Industry Greenhouse High settlement Low settlement Building Ribe Dike Windmill Tele pylon Pumps Roads Technical area Stream Lake Water area Recreation Sports park Moor Trees Wood/Park Farm Land

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.14 Crop distribution Salt marsh edge Another winter grain Spring grain Arable pasture grass Permanent grassland Set a-side Forest Winter wheat Non-farm area No information

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.15 Valuation analysis - crops Crops Prices per ha

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.16 Valuation analysis - crops 4,5-5,0 3,5-4,0 3,0-3,5 2,5-3,0 2,0-2,5 1,5-2,0 1,0-1,5 0,5-1,0 0,0-0,5 Below 0 m DVR Values (million Dkr.)

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.17 m DVR90 01,0 2,03,04,0 Property values (1000 million Dkr.) 4,5-5,0 4,0-4,5 3,5-4,0 3,0-3,5 2,5-3,0 2,0-2,5 1,5-2,0 1,0-1,5 0,5-1,0 0,0-0,5 Valuation analysis - buildings

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.18 Damage models 2 examples: 1. Buildings 2. Economic sector - movable property

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.19 Buildings (Water level) Water level out side the building (m) 01,02,03,04,04, Compensation for damage (1000 kr.)

Kystdirektoratet Gr Nr.20 Economic sector – movable property Compensation for damage (1000 kr.) 01,02,03,04,05,0 Water level out side the building (m)