1. Impact and vulnerability assessment in Poland
Prof. Maciej Sadowski
Institute of Environmental Protection
Warsaw, Poland

2. Rationale behind undertaking studies on adaptation
increasing frequency of extreme events
droughts, floods, storms and heavy showers,
reduced agricultural production ,
water shortage ,
rising of the Baltic Sea level

3. Studies on climate impact and vulnerability
Started several years ago and covered three sectors :
water management,
coastal zone, and
agriculture
Analisys based on several GCM models and IPCC scenarios

4. Water management
Annual runoff changes will probably be insignificant, seasonal changes are crucial
increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall
decrease in runoff of most rivers as well as soil moisture in summer months,
increase the probability of flooding.

5. Water management cont.
High variability of precipitation and increased consumption of water will cause shortfalls of water availability.
Water deficit will be particularly significant in Central Poland and may rise by 23% in 2020 and up to 30% in 2050.

6. Soil overdrying/desertification

7. Coastal zone
Over 2400 sq km of coastal area and over people will be affected by increased sea level.
The Odra River mouth and adjacent lowlands will be affected by sea water inundation.
The Hel Peninsula could be divided into separate islands

8. Coastal zone cont.
Full protection of the Polish coastal zone should include :
the protection of the industrialized and densely populated regions of Szczecin and Gdansk-Elbląg areas
Construction approx 120 to 300 km new dikes and reconstruction of 243 to 324 km of existing dikes, and 1 km of offshore breakwaters
Protection of the Odra River estuary and Wistula delta through the preservation of polders

10. Agriculture Mostly negative changes in food production are expected:
Reduction of potato yield (by 30-80%)
Reduction of cereal yield by approx.15%
Increased cost of husbandry (air-conditioning, water supply, and disease control).
Decrease of total agriculture production from 5 to 25% and significant inter-annual variation of yields.
The impact of climate change on agriculture depends significantly on local conditions

11. Agriculture cont. Positive impact:
Extension of the length of the growing period up to 3 weeks.
Favorable conditions for thermophilous plant production (corn, soyabean, oilseed sunflower, and others).
Increase of biomass production by approx.30% owing to more intensive photosynthesis.
Increase of husbandry production (due to increased biomass production).
depends largely on access to sufficient amounts of fresh water.

12. Agriculture-case study
Regional programe of adaptation in the north-eastern region of Poland. Analysis of individual farms of different sizes and types of production. Main production: milk and meat

13. ICTP scenario yields
Potato
Winter wheat

14. Agriculture -case study
Assumptions:
Assure in 70-ties current level of milk and meat production
Future agrotechnological progress not considered
Main actors – individual farmers

15. Agriculture case study - indicators
Climate
Temperature (mean, sum and extereme)
Precipitation (sum and frequency of showers)
Soil moisture
Radiation (total)
Impact
Plant yields index
Water needs
Stability of farms

16. Indicators cont. Adaptation
Area of arable lands and pastures necessary to assure current production of milk and meat in 2070-ties
Number of farms with different production needed in 70-ties

17. Case study - conclusions
Total area of arable land is sufficient to assure future production of milk and meat on current level wheras area of pastures should be increased by 10-50%
Crucial role of spatial planning
Improve monitoring system of local impact of cc
Strenghten training system to increase awareness of farmers and local authorieties

18. Research Participation in the EU projects inter alia: National:
ASTRA, CECILIA, ADAGIO, ACCENT,
National:
Natural Hazards and Exteme Events
Climate Change impact on economy (mainly water management)
Adaptation of individual farms to changing climate

19. Next steps
White paper stimulates Government to undertake activities to elaborate national strategy
Decision was taken by the Minsiter of Environment to elaborate adaptation strategy
National strategy will creates framework for regional, and sectoral strategies,
Adaptation policies and measures will be included into relevant sectoral and socio-economic policies