Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office About DEED’s Regional Analysts Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new research Extend access to DEED reports and statistics Conduct presentations and training on regional economy and labor market Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions” Five regional analysts stationed across the state

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Economics is “a dreary, desolate and indeed quite abject and distressing science. What we might call the Dismal Science.” -Thomas Carlyle, 1849

Our Labor Market Environment Demographics Wealth Industry Mix Globalization Technology Economic Restructuring Other….

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Recessions Recessions restructure economies- creative destruction at work. Some industries will collapse and be selected out of the economy Some industries will survive but drastically restructure operations New technology New markets New products Likewise- some occupations will collapse or be restructured changing skill sets Recessions set the course for the future- jobs, consumption/prices, globalization, regional vitality, etc..

Employment Trends Over Ten Years

Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Seems to have Stabilized

Unemployment Varies with Region Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Industries losing jobs in MN over the last 3 years Total Employment: -97,500 since Feb Construction: -24,650 (-34,100 in 4 years) Manufacturing: -35,600 (-41,000 in 4 years) Wholesale: -4,800 Retail: -12,500 Transportation: -650 Information: -4,650 Finance: -5,100 Professional & Technical Services: -8,100 Other Services: -4,450 Government: -8,000

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office -1,022 jobs -2.8% -975 jobs -3.3% -5,233 jobs -3.7% -1,229 jobs -1.5% -2,595 jobs -4.4% -2,778 jobs -5.9% -9,659 jobs -6.0% -574 jobs -3.1% -1,151 jobs -2.1% -3,225 jobs -6.4% -89,898 jobs -5.5% -9,498 jobs -4.1% -5,360 jobs -5.1% 2-Year Employment Change By EDR,

Temp Agency Employment tells us Something about Total Employment

Some Industries are adding back jobs after 3 years of losses Total Employment: +44,200 Leisure & Hospitality: +12,350 Healthcare: +9,100 Employment Services: +5,250 Transport. & Warehouse: +5,250 Wholesale: +5,000 Insurance: +2,300 Education: +2,300 Retail: +2,150 Construction of Buildings: +1,700 Machinery Mfg.: +1,350 Corporate HQ: +1,200 Building Contractors: +1,200 Fabricated Metal Mfg.: +800 Computer Consulting: +550 Transportation Mfg.: +450 Food Mfg.: +400 Banking: +300 Medical Device Mfg.: +160 Medical Supplies Mfg: +200 Mining & Logging: +150

Industry Projections: MN,

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Employment During Recession and Recovery ActualProjected ~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs Late 2012 Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast,

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Employment Decline Relative to Previous Recessions Current Recession

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Where are the jobs now? The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey: Identify occupations in demand Determine education and experience needed for job vacancies by region Describe job vacancies in terms of: Wages Benefits Part-time/full-time Temporary/seasonal or permanent Numbers and job titles of current openings All_Data_Tools/Job_Vacancy_Survey

What Industries Set Minnesota Apart and How are They Doing? IndustryEmployment Change Employment Change Printing-10,630 -7,733 Computer & electronics mfg.-19,882 -6,939 Animal production+2, Corporate Headquarters-1,425 +3,834 Insurance+5,806 +2,675 Miscellaneous Mfg.+2,678 -1,418 Food Manufacturing-4, Wood Product Mfg.-6,249 -4,120 Machinery Mfg.-14,728 -4,895 Fabricated Metal Mfg.-12,776--6,943 Paper Mfg.-4, Mining-1,985-2 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Why are Distinguishing industries Important? Determine Wealth Creation Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Crop Prod Animal Prod. Wood Mfg. Transportation Mfg. Wholesale Trade Nursing Care Facilities Crop Prod. Forestry Utilities Heavy Construction Food Mfg. Wood Products Nursing Care Facilities Mining Forestry Paper Mfg. Water Transport. Accommodation Nursing Care Facilities Crop Prod Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Fabricated Metal Mfg. Machinery Mfg Wholesale Trade Building Material Stores Nursing Care Facilities Crop Prod Animal Prod. Construction of Bldgs. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Machinery Mfg Wholesale Trade Waste Mgmt. Nursing Care Facilities Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Printing Non-Metallic Mineral Mfg Fabricated Metal Mfg. Electrical Equip. Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Leather Mfg. Non Metallic Mineral Mfg Computer & Electronics Mfg. Clinics Nursing Care Facilities Distinguishing Industries By EDR, 2009

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Forestry Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Printing Furniture Mfg. Nursing Care Accommodation Forestry Animal Prod. Heavy Construction Wood Mfg. Fabricated Metal Nonstore Retail Nursing Care Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Paper Mfg. Fabricated Metal Machinery Mfg. Computer Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Nursing Care Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Printing Nonmetallic Mineral Mfg. Primary Metal Mfg. Electrical Equip. Mfg. Nursing Care Social Assistance Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Machinery Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Wholesale Trucking Nursing Care Printing Computer & Electronics Mfg. Miscellaneous Mfg. Air Transport Railroads Data Processing & Hosting Insurance Corporate Headquarters Distinguishing Industries By EDR, 2009

Job Vacancy Survey Findings About 4 unemployed for every opening. Hiring demand is the highest for many healthcare-related occupations Architecture & Engineering Computers Business/Financial Operations Healthcare practitioners Personal Services Healthcare support Bldg/Grounds Maintenance Food Preparation 54,670 total job openings in the Minnesota job market at time of survey (2Q, 2011)

The gap between opportunities and the jobless has widened but is now closing

Attributes of Metro Job Vacancies: Q2, 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Available job openings require higher amounts of education

Unemployment by Education: U.S., August 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Unemployment by Age: U.S., August, 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Employment Projections for Minnesota Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally). Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict: Recessions, depressions, energy crises... Wars Natural Disaster Technology change Business Processes Legislation

Employment Projections: MN, Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Some Specific Industries will lose jobs Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment 2000?

Shift to Services Not all bad. Services make up an increasingly large share of the value of manufactures. Rolls Royce “Power by the Hour” Skill sets need to shift beyond the shop floor or computer terminal. Specialization of products, careers and skills will be more important.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Regional Employment Projections +13,797 jobs, +8.9% +26,602, +12.9% +144,099 jobs, +8.5% +22,899 jobs, +8.9% +10,409 jobs, +5.0% +19,109 jobs, +7.6%

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office MN Occupational Projections:

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Some Occupations will lose jobs…

Employment and Innovation Time Employment IT Services? Green Tech? Nanotech? Computer Mfg? Commoditization Maturation or “the Golden Age” Correction Expansion/ Speculation? Inception Microchips? Mortgage Innovations? Online Education?

Skill and Knowledge Areas for “In Demand” Jobs Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Reading Comprehension Active Listening Speaking Writing Active Learning Coordination Monitoring Instructing Critical Thinking Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Customer Service Mathematics Clerical Education/training English Sales/marketing Psychology Computers/electronics Administration/management

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Demographics: Labor Shortage? Not any time soon.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Labor Growth will Slow MN Demographic Center

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Minnesota is Aging When will they retire? How productive can they be? Will there be enough?

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Rural America is bottoming out MN Demographic Center

Aging will shift government priorities

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office Where can I get this information? Kyle Uphoff (RAO Manager): (651) Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) Northeast: Drew Digby (218) Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) Follow on LinkedIn Follow DEED on Twitter