Presentation on theme: "Matching VET supply with labour market demand Source of data used for matching VET supply with labour market demand Florin Gheorghe M ă rginean Head of."— Presentation transcript:
Matching VET supply with labour market demand Source of data used for matching VET supply with labour market demand Florin Gheorghe M ă rginean Head of planning and partnership department National Centre for TVET Development
1. Forecast of training demand - medium and long term perspective Data source: Study forecast the demand for professional training in 2013 and 2020 perspective Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF “Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour market demand” by National Centre for TVET Development and National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection
Methodological issues Forecasting methodology: econometric modeling; methodology similar to that used by Cambridge Econometrics in the forecast model used by CEDEFOP Three projection scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, optimistic Methodological limitations: – lack of statistical information at the level of detail required, gaps in data series due to changes in classifications and NACE COR, reduced length of time series used in econometric modeling, etc.. – uncertainty about the medium and long term developments of the global economic crisis – The lack of statistical information on the distribution of employment by economic activity, occupational subgroup and training areas can introduce substantial errors in estimating the demand for training.
Methodological issues (2) Potential demand - Potential demand is the number of people estimated to be necessary for carrying out economic activities in terms of population employed.This level will be satisfied when the number of people actually filled is equal to the estimated need of the population employed, in other cases we have a deficit or surplus to the needs of the population employed. - Potential demand should not to be confused with employment (although it apparently identical or similar values to it) and should not be considered as effective demand in terms of vacancies. - Potential demand forecasts provide benchmarks for the evolution of demand structure analysis by sectors, occupations, skill levels, training areas.
Methodological issues (3) Replaced demand the number of jobs resulting from the withdrawal of participants in economic activity due to retirements and other natural losses Jobs available the amount beteen the change of potential demand (changes from the beginning of the period under review) and replacement demand. Potential changes in demand to start the period under review (year) is, increase or decrease the potential demand from year to year. This indicator can take positive values if the employment is growing or employment is declining but the decrease is smaller in absolute value than demand replaced. Estimated demand by training domains Estimating demand for training in areas of training was based on potential demand for labor at the junction of its structure subgroup major occupations NACE Rev2 sections and using a transfer matrix in areas of training.
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Technicians in physics and engineering Tehnicians in life sciences, health Other similar occupation tehnicians Office servants Public service servants Workers in personal and security services Models, shop and market sellers Farmers and workers skilled in agriculture, forestry and fishing Craftsmen and skilled workers in mining and construction Craftsmen and skilled workers in Metal, machinery and related Craftsmen and skilled workers Precision, handicraft, printing and related Craftsmen and skilled workers in food Operators Stationary and assimilated workers Operators machinery and assemblers of machinery, equipment and other products Drivers and mobile plant operators
Projection of the potential labor demand by economic activities - moderate scenario, N-E region level (no. people)
Projection of the potential labor demand by economic activities - moderate scenario, national level (no. people)
Forecast potential demand structure, the moderate scenario, the training areas of VET in the North-East in perspective 2017-2020 Areas of training% Agriculture10,3 Industrial Chemistry0,9 Construction10,4 Trade12,9 Economic12,8 Electric4,4 Electromechanics3,4 Electronic, automation3,5 Wood industry1,5 Food industry0,7 Textile and leather industry9,4 Building materials0,8 Mechanics18,7 Tourism and food7,6 Natural resources and environmental protection2,6 Printing Techniques0,1 Total100,0
2. Survey in enterprises on labor demand in the short term perspective Data source: Survey in enterprises on labor demand in the short term perspective (12 month) Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF “Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour market demand” by National Centre for TVET Development and National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection
Methodological issues Interviews "face to face" with representaives of companies based on the questionnaire Sample of 3836 firms, national and regional representative, from August 14 to September 14, 2011. National maximum permissible error: ± 1.56% at a confidence level of 95% maximum permissible error at regional level: ± 4.4% at a confidence level of 95% Sampling methodology: probabilistic sample type, multistage and stratified. Way of achieving probabilistic sample ensures the presence of all economic branches and sub- branches, a similar proportion in the economy.
Results (exemples) Evolution of number of employees 2008-2011, by size class (percentage dynamic from year to year, the number last year of 100%) -%
Share of firms with vacancies (% of firms with vacancies in all companies in the region)
Share of firms with vacancies by economic activities (% of firms with vacancies from total companies in each economic activity)