Fire Management and Climate Change

Fire climate factors Past climate change Projected climate change King Island Fire Management adaptation Slide title sits here Introduction

“A number between 0 and 100 that is directly related to the chances of a fire starting, its rate of spread, intensity and difficulty of suppression according to various combinations of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and both long and short term drought effects.” A.G. McArthur 1973 Fire Danger

Fire Danger: Rainfall – prolonged summer drought Humidity – dry air Wind Lightning ignitions Fire Climate Factors

More & bigger fires, longer fire seasons More fire sensitive vegetation burnt Shorter inter-fire intervals –secondary effects, eg poor recruitment Increased organic soil loss Increase in fire suppression & mitigation Fire and Climate Change Impacts

Rainfall Fire Danger Ratings Lightning ignitions Trends in Past Climate Change

% Difference from mean King Island Annual Rainfall

Launceston Forest Fire Danger Index

Spring FFDI > 40 at Hobart

“In Tasmania there is no strong relationship between thunderstorms and fire % of the total area burnt in a 12 year period.” Bowman and Brown 1986 Lightning in Tasmania

Lightning Fires - PWS Records

Wildfire Ignitions - PWS Records SummaryTotal Area %Number % Lightning469 Arson1542 Undetermined1122 Other Fire seasons 1991/92 to 2006/07

Projected Climate Change

Lucas et al. 2007: CSIRO climate simulations projections for 2020 & 2050 compared to present ( ) –annual cumulative FFDI –days with FFDI >24 Projected Climate Change

Lucas et al. 2007: Little change in FFDI expected for Launceston or Hobart. Significant changes on mainland Projected Climate Change

SiteNow Canberra Hobart Launceston AP Average no. days per year FFDI > 24:

Simulation of Fire Risk

Projection Problems Understanding fire climatology –what weather factors correlate with fires? Lack of climate modelling for: –Lightning –Drought –Regional areas

King Island Fires

2001 fire 2007 fire

King Island Fire

King Island Fires Organic soil loss: Estimated 1,700 hectares peat in Lavinia –200 hectares peat lost per fire (2001 & 2007) –9 fires –1 fire per century –no peat in 900 years

King Island Fires Factors causing increased peat loss: Lower rainfall for 27 years Land use change surrounding –swamp draining & land clearance Increased ignition sources –people –lightning

King Island Fire 2007

Management Adaptation Heads Up: Longer operational fire seasons More prescribed burning Sacrificial zones More $$

King Island Fire 2007

Cracroft Fire 2007