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Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest and Range, Victoria

2 Outline Climate changes for PNW Implications for Douglas-fir Management – vulnerability assessments and adaptation

3 Future Climate(s)? Increase in Global Mean Temperature Temperature difference from 1980-1999 (  C) 1 0 2 3 4 1900 2000 2100 Historic Large reduction in emissions – B1 Medium reduction in emissions – A1B Minimal reduction in emissions - A2 Total cut in emissions now (Adapted from IPCC - Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis)

4 Change in Summer Maximum Temperature from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2080s 2050s

5 Change in Winter Minimum Temperature from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2080s 2050s

6 http://pacificclimate.org Change in Summer Precipitation from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 2080s 2050s

7 Change in Winter Precipitation from Current Conditions, CGCM2-A2 http://pacificclimate.org 2050s 2080s

8 (Little 1971) Climate change and Douglas-fir

9 Change in Douglas-fir climates in US  4  C warming (Rehfeldt et al. 2006) Current 2020s2050s 2080s

10 Douglas-fir climate in BC Current Climate range 2080s  4  C warming (Hamman and Wang 2006) 10%

11 Douglas-fir Seed Planning Zones Mean annual temperature Current  C 3 4 5 7 8 9

12 Douglas-fir Seed Planning Zones Mean annual temperature Current  C 3 4 5 7 8 9 2050  C 5.5 6.5 7 9 10 11

13 Environmental factors Photosynthesis – light, nutrition, soil water, temperature, CO 2 Respiration – temperature, soil water, photosynthesis Physiology (e.g., carbon allocation, bud set) – temperature - chilling, frost Genetics Disturbance – fire, insects, disease, harvest/reforestation, weather (wind, frost)

14 Net ecosystem productivity = Photosynthesis - Respiration Douglas-fir, Vancouver Island Photosynthesis = F(PAR, Air temperature) Respiration = F(Air temperature) Respiration = Tree + Soil Net primary productivity Monthly relationships derived from 1998 to 2005 data (Morgenstern et al. 2004, Jassel et al. 2007, Schwalm et al. 2007) Calculate historic (1976-2007) and future (2008-2056) NEP, G, R for a 50-yr-old forest

15 Annual air temperature 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 197619861996200620162026203620462056 Year Temperature (  C) Minimum Maximum Annual PAR 7500 8500 9500 PAR (mol m -2 y -1 ) Warming trend

16 Photosynthesis, Respiration and Net Ecosystem Productivity for a 50-y-old Douglas-fir stand 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 197619861996200620162026203620462056 gCm -2 y -1 Photosynthesis Respiration NEP Warming trend

17 Water availability and growth Precipitation in fall, winter and early spring >> evaporative demand Amount of water in May through July to meet evaporative demand Summer water availability = (May, June & July Rainfall) + 60% of water storage capacity of the root zone Water storage capacity = f(texture, stone content, depth)

18 Summer water availability (mm) Tree height and water - Coastal Douglas-fir (Spittlehouse 2003) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 150170190210230250270290 Site Index @50 y (m) 800 900 600 400 500 700 Volume @ harvest (m 3 ha -1 ) May-July evaporative demand

19 Influence of climate change  Temperature  Evaporative  Summer water °C demand (%) balance (mm) 1 3 2 7 3 10 4 15 (Spittlehouse 2003)  ppt -10% -20% -20 -32 -25 -40 -30 -45 -40 -53

20 Change in growth by 2050 for the CGCM2-A2 scenario Evaporation + Precipitation: 10% reduction in volume Temperature: 15% reduction in NPP Total: 25% reduction over 50 y

21 Reforestation Increased risk of failure due to drier summers

22 Possible offsets? CO 2 fertilization Increased water use efficiency

23 Disturbance Fire: +4  C temperature - Increase length fire season 4 to 20 days - Increase severity ratio by 0 to 50% (Flannigan et al. 2005) Insects and disease - ?

24 Vulnerability to climate change Timber supply for the next 50 years Reforestation and trees for >50 years Forest operations Water quality and quantity NTFP Wildlife habitat Conservation

25 Adaptation Reduce vulnerability - Minimise negative effects - Take advantage of opportunities Biological - Adapt the forest to the changing climate Societal - Adapt to the response of forests to the changing climate

26 Challenges When will we know enough to respond? Which climate scenario? Species/provenance climate sensitivity Developing interim adaptive actions Who manages the risk? Scale

27 Summary Significant change in the area of climate suitable for Douglas-fir Provenances and optimum climate Reductions in productivity - increase in respiration - increase in water restriction to photosynthesis Increase in fire, reforestation failure Vulnerability assessments

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