Migration and Development – Changing Paradigms: The Turkish case Prof. Dr. Ahmet Icduygu MiReKoc, Migration Research Program Department of International Relations Koç University, Istanbul Migration and Development: A Euro-Mediterranean Perspective organised by the Hellenic Migration Policy Institute (IMEPO) and the OECD Development Centre Rhodes, Greece, on April 2007

Causes and Consequences of Emigration Causes of Emigration Causes of Emigration Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Consequences of Emigration Consequences of Emigration - easing Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship

What is Development? Consequences of Emigration Consequences of Emigration - Easing / Improvement Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Economic aspects Economic aspects Social aspects Social aspects Political aspects Political aspects Cultural aspects Cultural aspects

History of Turkish Emigration Four Distinct Periods in Turkish Emigration 1961 – 1974 : Massive labor migration to Western Europe 1961 – 1974 : Massive labor migration to Western Europe 1974 – 1980 : Decline of labor migration to Western Europe and the beginning of labor emigration to Arab countries 1974 – 1980 : Decline of labor migration to Western Europe and the beginning of labor emigration to Arab countries 1980s +: Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe 1980s +: Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe 1990s + : Labour migration to the CIS countries + Labor 1990s + : Labour migration to the CIS countries + Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe. flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe.

History of Turkish Emigration Emigration to Europe ( ) 1961 – 1975 : Labor Migration 1961 – 1975 : Labor Migration present : + Family Reunification and Marriage Migration present : + Family Reunification and Marriage Migration present : + Clandestine Migration and Asylum Seeking present : + Clandestine Migration and Asylum Seeking

Turkish Labor Migration by Destination, Host Countries #%#%#%#%#%#%#% Europe Arab Countries Australia CIS Countries Others Total Total

Turkish Emigration by Destination,

Turkish Asylum-Seekers by Destination, Destination #%#%#%#%#%#% Europe Canada Australia USA Total

Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Mid-1980s Mid-1990sMid-2000s Countryx 1,000% % % Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany 1, , , Netherlands Sweden Switzerland UK Other European countries Total Europe 1, , , Arab countries Australia CIS countries North American countries Other countries Total2, , ,

Economic and Social Consequences of Turkish Emigration: Gaining from Emigration Emigration in Turkey results in a mixture of benefits and costs. Economic consequences Economic consequences Socio-political and cultural consequences Socio-political and cultural consequences

Economic Consequences Two basic approaches: Optimistic: the “balanced growth” (equilibrium) model Optimistic: the “balanced growth” (equilibrium) model a positive impact and an increase in the national balance of trade domestic investment, and economic growth. a positive impact and an increase in the national balance of trade domestic investment, and economic growth. Pessimistic : the “asymmetric growth” (conflict) model the displacement of labour to industrialized countries distorts and slows down the development in the migrants’ areas of origin. the displacement of labour to industrialized countries distorts and slows down the development in the migrants’ areas of origin.

Economic Consequences The beneficial effects of workers’ remittances The beneficial effects of workers’ remittances The role of the remittances in the perennial foreign-exchange crisis The role of the remittances in the perennial foreign-exchange crisis The investments made by migrants – limited The investments made by migrants – limited the maintenance of the family left behind and investment in equipment, building, car etc. the maintenance of the family left behind and investment in equipment, building, car etc. a positive impact on household welfare a positive impact on household welfare improvements in the living conditions of migrants improvements in the living conditions of migrants

Economic Consequences The reduction in unemployment and underemployment The reduction in unemployment and underemployment helped to reduce unemployment pressures in Turkey. helped to reduce unemployment pressures in Turkey. The acquisition of skills and the process of return migration The acquisition of skills and the process of return migration State: skills failed to match Turkey’s need in human resources State: skills failed to match Turkey’s need in human resources Individual: the same mismatch engenders personal disillusionment. Individual: the same mismatch engenders personal disillusionment.

Gaining from Emigration: Economic Consequences State activities to channel remittance savings to maximize economic growth State activities to channel remittance savings to maximize economic growth Workers’ joint stock companies Workers’ joint stock companies Village Development Cooperatives Village Development Cooperatives State Industry and Workers’ Investment Bank in 1975 State Industry and Workers’ Investment Bank in 1975

Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in Turkish Economy, RemittanceExportsImports (x Million USD) (x Million USD) (x Million USD) ,3 0, ,6 0, ,6 0, ,4 0, , ,3 0, ,8 1, ,4 2, ,1 3, ,8 4, ,5 3, ,3 2, , , ,5 1, ,3 2, , ,9 3, ,1 3, ,1 2, , ,5 2,5 Year Remittance as % of Trade Deficit Remittance as % of GNP

Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in Turkish Economy, RemittanceExportsImports (x Million USD) (x Million USD) (x Million USD) ,5 2, ,8 2, ,7 1, , ,3 2, ,4 2, ,3 1, ,7 1, ,1 1, , , ,7 1, ,3 2, ,4 2, ,9 2, ,7 2, ,5 1, ,3 1, ,7 0, ,3 0,2 Year Remittance as % of Trade Deficit Remittance as % of GNP

Remittance Inflows in Turkish Economy in Million USD,

Remittances as % of GNP,

Gaining from Migration: Social Consequences Emigration is an important source for social change Changes in generation and gender relationships Changes in generation and gender relationships The changing status of women The changing status of women The positive impact on the roles and relationships of parents and children The positive impact on the roles and relationships of parents and children The improvement of the migrants’ quality of life The improvement of the migrants’ quality of life

Gaining from Migration: Socio- political Consequences Socio-political changes More respect for human rights and democracy More respect for human rights and democracy Dual citizenship rights, the changing status of military service for emigrants Dual citizenship rights, the changing status of military service for emigrants

Unintended Consequences of the Turkish Emigration Cultural-revivalist tendencies among the Turkish migrants abroad Cultural-revivalist tendencies among the Turkish migrants abroad – Muslim fundamentalism and Kurdish nationalism – Muslim fundamentalism and Kurdish nationalism Problems related to return migration and second- generation returnees Problems related to return migration and second- generation returnees – R eintegration and adoptation problems The decrease in the population growth but increase in east-to-west and rural-to-urban migration The decrease in the population growth but increase in east-to-west and rural-to-urban migration

Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship (x 1,000) Country Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Netherlands Sweden Switzerland UK Total

Concluding Remarks Changing Paradigms of Migration and Development : Statism Import-substitution State intervention Protectionism Remittances: more important Economic consequences: more important 1980-onwards: Liberalism Free trade Free trade Stock exchange Stock exchange Remittances: less important (growing importance of FDI) Social/political/cultural consequences: more important

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