Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in the Russian Federation. Julia Dobrolyubova Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol November , bld.2, 1 st Volkonsky lane, Moscow, Russia phone/fax:

Temperature growth in Russia Temperature had increased by 1ºC in Russia in in comparison with global 0,74ºC temperature growth. Surface air temperature changes in Russia, the Northern Hemisphere and the World, Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.

Uneven Distribution of Climate Change Effects (1) Due to its vast territory and variety of geographical conditions, climate change effects have considerable spatial and seasonal variations in Russia. Surface air temperature changes in winter and summer, , °C/decade. Source: Report on climate features In Russia in 2006, Roshydromet, 2007.

Uneven Distribution of Climate Change Effects (2) Mean annual amount of precipitation is expected to increase further, mainly due to its increase in the cold period. The most significant increase is expected in the north of Eastern Siberia (by up to 7-9%).. As for mass of snow accumulated by the end of winter the changes expected in 5-10 years have trends opposite in sign in different regions of Russia. Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.

“Strategic prediction for the period up to of climate change expected in Russia and its impacts on the sectors of the Russian national economy” Prepared and presented by the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) in 2006.

Sectors covered: Energy Sector Agriculture Water management Construction Human health

Goals: Climate change assessment with due respect to variety of climatic zones in Russia Climate change forecast for years in order to inform policy-makers Integration of forecasts of climate change impact into socio-economic development programmes of the country Elaboration of respond measures, adaptation strategies

Climate Change Impacts: Extreme Events Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, Total number of extreme events in Russia in

Climate Change Impacts: Extreme Events Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, Damages from environmental hazards in agriculture, Damages in 10 9 rub/year

Climate Change Impacts: Energy Sector Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, Decrease in duration of heating period (days) up to Duration of a heating period will probably decrease by 3-4 days in Russia by 2015 on average, which may considerably reduce expenditures on heating. At the same time due to increase of number of hot days in summer period there is a high probability of deterioration of heat absorbing systems at power stations as well as increase of expenditures on cooling.

Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture Positive effects of climate change are expected in the overall yield increase due to prolongation of period of vegetation. Negative effects: Although, high probabilities of the warming-related droughts may cause yield decrease by up to 22% of the present level for corn crops in the Northern Caucasia, and in the Volga and Ural regions and in the south of Western Siberia as low as 12-14% of the present level, if no actions are taken to combat the predicted intensification of aridity.

Climate Change Impacts: Water Management Projected changes of runoff (%), , relative to Legend: Annual runoff Winter runoff Spring runoff Summer runoff increase decrease Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.

Climate Change Impacts: Human Health In summer seasons up to 2015, nearly the whole of the Russian territory is expected to see more days with extremely high air temperatures. This can have an adverse effect on public health, particularly in large cities. Taking early actions (developing recommendations for people exposed to high air temperatures, medical staff training, etc.) can decrease an adverse effect of heat waves on public health.

Climate Change Impacts: Human Health A southern boundary of environmental discomfort zone is expected to shift from 60 km (northwestern Russia) to 250 km (Republic of Sakha-Yakutia) Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.

Climate Change Impacts: the Arctic Region Permafrost thawing: changes of seasonal melting depth (cm) in 2015 in comparison with average Source: Strategic Prediction, Roshydromet, 2006.

Effects of climate change vary greatly in different regions of Russia Climate changes have considerable impacts on living conditions and socio-economic aspects The expected climate change may have both negative and positive impacts Conclusions It is necessary to determine the priority measures to respond the current and expected climate changes in order to minimise the losses from the negative impacts and maximise the benefits of the positive ones

Further Steps Conduction of a more profound research of climatic changes and their economic effects in the regions, especially in the most vulnerable ones Extension of the list of sectors covered in research studies Support and development of the early forecast and alert systems against extreme events Integration of adaptation measures into regional programmes of socio- economic development Elaboration of National Strategy aimed at development of adaptation measures in different sectors of the national economy and its implementation at both federal and regional levels Enhancement of international co- operation in the field of adaptation, including conduction of joint research studies, elaboration of common approaches and unified criteria for assessment, development and transfer of new adaptation technologies, etc. Awareness rising among all the stakeholders

Thank you for your attention! Julia Dobrolyubova Phone/Fax: