Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September , 2008 Monthly Rice Rice - protected commodity Given global food price inflation, the scattered global food riots, and now a global financial crisis Do you now believe that rice will be less or more protected by the major rice producing countries of the world?
U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres Primary U.S. rice discussion will be on long grain rice
U.S. Medium Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres
U.S. Short Grain Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres
U.S. All Rice Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres U.S. rice acreage declines with increasing cost of production and increased price uncertainty
Soybeans, Weekly Corn, Weekly Wheat, Weekly Rice, Weekly Food inflation/riots
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4% Thai 100% grade B Vietnam, 5 percent RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes – 2007 to Present One Outcome From High Rice Price Was Food Riots
Food riots were expected
April 10, 2008
Why is there a rice supply problem? U.S. and global rice supplies are tight but adequate. Problem Hording, processing, distribution and/or availability
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/09 Millions of Metric Tons 3 of 4 8 of 13
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons Global ending stocks are projected to increase 4% in 2008/09
World Rice Area Harvested 1978/ /09 Millions of Hectares
World Rice Milled Production 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons
World Rice Trade Calendar Year Millions of Metric Tons Protectionism Financial Crisis
U.S. Long Grain Rice Situation
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight All Rice 4
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 2
U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight
U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 2
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight Long Grain 3
U.S. All Rice Rough Exports 1970/71 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 3
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight 3
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight
Rice Outlook
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/ /09 Millions of Metric Tons Improvements in global supply and availability are projected… Global supply will remain tight but adequate Significant damaging global weather event would once again raise major concerns about supply availability
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/09 Millions of Metric Tons 3 of 4 8 of 13 The major rice producing countries stand ready to take any required action to maintain adequate production
World Rice Trade Calendar Year Millions of Metric Tons Exporting countries have and will continue to meet their commitment… Slowing global economy… Results in drop in global rice prices Protectionism Credit Crisis
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4% Thai 100% grade B Vietnam, 5 percent RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes – 2003 to Present
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight USDA’s optimism about yields will not be realize which will provide rice prices some support
Financial Crisis Bearish For Rice Prices
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U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09 Million hundredweight
Rice Long Grain Monthly Chart USDA 2008/09 $16.26 per cwt Market direction
End
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
California Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
Louisiana Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
Mississippi Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
Missouri Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
Texas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, ,000 Acres September 1, 2008
U.S. All Rice Harvested By State , Thousand Acres