1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook 8th Annual Beginning Farmers Conference
Ames, Iowa
Feb. 2, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
950
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,267
Ending Stocks
602
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,605
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
119
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,070
Ending Stocks
135
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Prices

5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2012 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Grind for Ethanol

13. Ethanol Stocks

14. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

15. Current Corn Futures
6.82
5.58
5.36
Source: CME Group, 1/31/2013

16. Current Soybean Futures
14.08
12.64
12.22
Source: CME Group, 1/31/2013

17. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

18. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

19. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Why Crops Fail

22. Corn Insurance Prices
Harvest prices have been higher 5 out of last 13 years

23. Soy Insurance Prices
Harvest prices have been higher 7 out of last 13 years

24. Iowa Corn Acres Insured in 2012
91% of all Iowa
corn acres are
insured

25. Iowa Soy Acres Insured in 2012
91% of all Iowa
soybean acres
are insured

26. 2012 Corn and Soy Coverage Levels

27. Decision Trees
Source: Wisner, Iowa State University

28. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(1/31/13)
2013/14
Corn
$7.40
$6.82
$5.58
Soybeans
$14.25
$14.08
$12.64
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: