1. Crop Situation and Outlook
Kim Anderson
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agricultural Economist

2. Market Points Major commodity prices
Wheat $5.05 $5.35 (‘19)
Corn $3.60
Soybeans $7.75
Cotton $0.71
Sorghum $3.54
World grain stocks are near record highs
Prices have cycles
Relatively high prices will return
they won’t last long.

3. World Wheat Production, Consumption?6 5 7 3 1 8 2 4

4. World Corn Production, Consumption?
U.S bb
China bb
EU bb
Brazil bb
Mexico bb
India bb
Egypt 0.6 bb
Japan 0.6 bb
Canada 0.6 bb
Vietnam 0.6 bb

5. 19-Feb-19
Wheat

6. Hard Wheat Exports: 2018/19

7. U.S. Wheat Export Countries: 2017/18 (Million Bushels)
US Rank
Country
U.S.
World
Percent
World Rank 1
Mexico
112
193
58% 10 2
Japan
110
216
51% 8 3
Philippines 90
220
41% 7 4
S. Korea 53
157
34% 14 5
Indonesia 39
386
10% 6
Taiwan 37 49
76%
Nigeria 36
191
19% 11
China 28
147 16 9
Iraq 25
151
16% 15
Thailand 24
118
21% 19
Colombia 72
33%

8. U.S. Wheat Export Countries: 2013-2017 (Million Bushels)
US Rank
Country
U.S.
World
Percent
World Rank 1
Mexico
118
180
65%
9-10 2
Japan
105
217
49%
5-8 3
Philippines 86
185
46%
8-7 4
Nigeria 63
172
37%
11-11 5
China 55
151
36%
14-16 6
Brazil 54
245
22%
4-4 7
S. Korea 48
159
30%
12-11 8
Taiwan 38 51
75%
36-16 9
Indonesia 34
335
10%
2-2 10
Colombia 27 70
39%
26-28 11 EU 26
206
13%
6-9
654, 954, 69%

9. Wheat 2.08 .866 $5.91 Year Protein Test Weight Production Use
Ending Stocks
U.S. Price
Oklahoma Price
Ok – U.S. Difference
2011
13.1%
61.5#
2.00
2.23
.743
$7.24
$ 7.05
$(0.19)
2012
12.3%
60.3#
2.25
2.41
.718
$7.77
$ 7.45
$(0.32)
2013
12.8%
59.7#
2.14
2.43
.590
$6.87
$ 6.99
$ 0.12
2014
14.2%
2.03
2.02
.752
$5.99
$ 6.34
$ 0.35
2015
12.6%
57.3#
2.06
1.95
.976
$4.89
$ 4.77
$(0.12)
2016
11.0%
61.2#
2.31
2.22
1.18
$3.89
$ 3.44
$(0.46)
2017
10.9%
60.5#
1.74
1.98
1.10
$4.73
$ 3.98
$(0.75)
2018
1.88
2.18
.935
$5.16
$ 5.34
$ 0.18
7-Year Average
2.08
.866
$5.91
$5.70
($0.21)

10. Questions - Comments

11. One last Observation
Producers who have below average costs, above average yields, and above average quality will make a profit raising wheat.