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Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012

2 Back in Production… Any Way Possible Source: Matt Leavitt

3 10-Year Corn Prices Source: NASS

4 Corn Use: Fuel versus Food Source: USDA ‘02 EthanolFeed 64206420 Bushels ‘03‘05‘04‘06‘08‘07‘09‘10‘11

5 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

6 World Corn Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

7 USDA Corn Supply and Use 2010/11 est. (2/9/12) 2011/2012 proj. Area Planted88.2 91.9 Area Harvested81.4 84.0 Yield 152.8 147.2 Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128 Production 12,447 12,358 Imports 2820 Supply, Total 14,182 13,506 Feed & Residual 4,793 4,600 Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,405 Domestic Use, Total 11,220 11,005 Exports 1,835 1,700 Use, Total 13,055 12,705 Ending Stocks 1,128 801 Average Farm Price $5.18 $5.80-$6.60 Compliments of PHI Marketing

8 World Corn Supply and Use 2009-10 2010-11 (est.) 2011-12 (proj.) Beginning Stocks 147.54 144.18 128.83 Production 819.23 827.54 864.11 Imports 89.76 91.34 92.84 Feed 488.48 494.41 510.83 Total 822.60 842.89 867.59 Exports 96.82 90.45 94.93 Ending Stocks 144.18 128.83 125.35 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

9 May ’12 Corn Source: CBOT

10 December ’12 Corn Source: CBOT

11 Light Sweet Crude Oil Source: NYMEX

12 10-Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS

13 Brazil’s Big Ag Expansion 2011-21 Source: DTN 75% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CoffeeSoybeansCotton Exports Production 24%46%36%39%48%68%

14 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

15 World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

16 USDA Soybean Supply and Use 2010/11 Est. (2/9/12)2011/2012 Projected Area Planted77.4 75.0 Area Harvested76.6 73.6 Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 41.5 Beginning Stocks 151 215 Production 3,329 3,056 Imports 1415 Supply, Total 3,495 3,286 Crush 1,648 1,615 Exports 1,501 1,275 Seed 87 88 Residual 43 32 Use, Total 3,280 3,011 Ending Stocks 215275 Average Farm Price $11.30 $11.10-$12.30 Compliments of PHI Marketing

17 World Soybean Supply and Use 2009/10 2010/11 (est.) 2011/2012(Proj.) 2009/10 2010/11 (est.) 2011/2012(Proj.) Beginning Stocks 42.72 59.60 68.90 Production 260.85 264.18 251.47 Imports 86.83 88.83 90.76 Crush 209.50 221.09 227.42 Total 238.25 251.74 258.05 Exports 92.55 91.97 92.79 Ending Stocks 59.60 68.90 60.28 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

18 May ’12 Soybeans Source: CBOT

19 November ’12 Soybeans Source: CBOT

20 10-Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS

21 USDA Wheat Supply and Use 2010/11 (2/9/12) 2011/2012 Projected Area Planted53.6 54.4 Area Harvested47.6 45.7 Yield (bushels per acre) 46.3 43.7 Beginning Stocks 976 862 Production 2,207 1,999 Imports 97120 Supply, Total 3,279 2,982 Food 926 935 Seed 71 82 Feed & Residual 132145 Exports 1,289 1,162 Use, Total 2,417 2,137 Ending Stocks 862 845 Average Farm Price $5.70 $7.15-$7.45 Compliments of PHI Marketing

22 World Wheat Supply and Use 2009/10 2010/11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.) 2009/10 2010/11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks 167.05 202.34 200.70 Production 685.43 651.61 692.88 Imports 133.58 130.07 135.91 Feed 115.36 112.42 130.66 Total 650.14 653.24 680.48 Exports 135.80 131.82 140.25 Ending Stocks 202.34 200.70 213.10 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

23 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

24 World Wheat Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

25 May ’12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

26 December ’12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

27 10-Year Cotton Prices Source: NASS

28 May ’12 Cotton Source: CBOT

29 December ’12 Cotton Source: NYMEX

30 10-Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS

31 April ’12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT

32 December ’12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT

33 April ’12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT

34 November ’12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT

35 January Milk Cows 2002-12 Source: NASS

36 April ’12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

37 December ’12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

38 10-Year Hog Prices Source: NASS

39 April ’12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

40 December ’12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

41 Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010 Source: Chicago Federal Reserve

42

43 Recovering economy Demographics will drive ag/food product demand Next world industrial expansion: Africa U.S. continues to be ag technology leader U.S., China will drive African development Infrastructure build-out continues in South America ‘Youth bulge’ means growth in Middle East, but continued destabilization following Arab Spring What’s this mean for you: Continued strong demand for U.S. agricultural commodities Globally Local World: What’s Ahead


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