Demographic Trends & Issues To 2020 Presentation to MnSCU Board of Trustees Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration October 2008

Since WWII, Minnesota has been very successful. Rising education level has been a major component of that success.

In The 1970s, Minnesota Per Capita Income Passed The US BEA

Minnesota Has Improved Education Attainment High school diploma—rank among states –23 rd in 1940 (of 48 states) –19 th in 1960 –2 nd in 2000 Bachelors degree or higher –31 st in 1940 (of 48 states) –26 th in 1960 –11 th in 2000

2008 Is A Watershed Year First wave of the Boom generation turns 62 High school graduates peak in the spring for the next decade College age population will soon begin to decline in Minnesota & the US The labor force will grow more slowly next decade Economic growth will probably slow & depend more on increasing productivity Shortages will occur in key occupations due to retirements Government revenue growth will slow while health care costs increase sharply

Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

For Our Prosperity To Continue, Higher Education Is Essential Economic Growth=Labor Force Growth + Productivity Growth Productivity growth comes from Private investment—machines & processes Public investment—roads, bridges, etc Technology from research, public & private Skills & abilities of workers—education & training

The Three Most Important Factors For Future Economic Success 1.Productivity 2.Productivity 3.Productivity

Projected Openings In Minnesota Occupations DEED projections. Percent of 2006 level

For Many Important Occupations More Than A Fifth Are Over Age ACS

High School Graduation Is Declining In The US & Mn While Increasing In Our Competitor Countries OECD Education At A Glance, 2005

State Revenue Growth Rate Projected To Slow

Minnesota’s Population Will Change The Three Largest Cost Drivers In The State Budget Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

Health Care Spending Jumps After 55 U.S. Health Care Spending By Age, 2004 Source: Agency for HealthCare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, data for per capita spending by age group in the Midwest. Excludes spending for long-term care institutions.

If State Health Care Costs Continue Their Current Trend, State Spending On Other Services Can’t Grow General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat

MnSCU Challenges 2008 To 2020 Potential for declining enrollment Increased competition for students Slower government revenue growth from slower economic growth & aging Rapidly rising health care costs—budget cuts for everything else Aging MnSCU workforce

Some MnSCU Opportunities In The Next Decade Reach out to non traditional students— groups with low education attainment, older, retraining Work with K-12 schools to improve outcomes Work with other institutions & business to identify critical occupations & train to need– a proactive effort. Find new ways to cut costs & improve product—need a new business model—how and where education is done Conduct workforce planning for MnSCU

Most Regions Will See Declines In High School/College Age Population

Education Is The Key Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio through graduates. Based on 10 th grade enrollment three years earlier.

Projected Change In Working Age Population (15-64)

Age Of Higher Education Students 2006 Enrolled in higher education with at least a high school diploma

Place of Birth Of Higher Education Students

Higher Education Means Higher Income Median Income of Minnesotans Age ACS

Minnesota School Enrollment Is Changing

Job Growth Contributes To Increased Diversity Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32% Over half of total population growth this decade is minority. And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger

Large Differences Exist In Education Achievement & Participation Education Status Age ACS