actual forecast NGLs Coalbed methane Hydro, wind, and other renewables Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Total energy production in Alberta Figure 1
Figure 3. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy
actualforecast Figure 4 Total marketable gas production and demand 23%26%33%44%58%
Figure 5. Drilling Activity in Alberta, 1948 – 2008 Bitumen* - includes producing and evaluation wells Gas** - includes CBM wells Other *** - includes unsuccessful, service, and suspended wells
Figure 6. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook ERCB Prorationing Plan (restricted production) Major Oil Field Discoveries 1947 – Leduc 1948 – Redwater 1949 – Golden Spike 1952 – Bonnie Glen 1953 – Pembina 1957 – Swan Hills 1959 – Judy Creek 1959 – Swan Hills South Rainbow Major Events Affecting Price 1973 – Oil Embargo 1979 – Iranian Revolution 1980 – Iran / Iraq War 1986 – OPEC Crumbles 1990 – Gulf War 1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis 2001 – 9 / – Iraq War Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation Board (ERCB) created to enforce production standards Export Pipelines 1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge) 1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line
Figure 7. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup Syncrude Startup Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup
Figure 8. Alberta in situ bitumen production and price
Figure 9 Historical natural gas production and price Gas prices as a by-product of oil production. Price less than replacement cost Arbitration awards price increase Regulated gas price tied to oil prices; Surplus built up Price deregulation Surplus gas drives down prices PGT expansion Northern Border pipeline expansion Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit U.S. Gulf Coast Foothills Pipe Lines built for gas exports to California and the mid-western U.S. Alliance Pipeline on stream
Figure 10 Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price Prices reached highs in the US$650-$840/tonne range in 2008
1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines) and growth of population 1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains 1960 – Steam rail era ends Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry 1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation 1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice Coal remained “King Coal” until huge reservoirs of crude oil and natural gas were discovered Figure 11 Historical coal production and price Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE) Late 1990’s – mine closures and reduced coal exports due to depressed coal prices
Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2008 Source: OPEC
Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago actual forecast High Low
Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead actual forecast High Low
Figure average monthly reference prices in Alberta Light-medium Heavy Bitumen
Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate actual forecast high low
Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices actualforecast
Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada Exchange Rate Prime rate on Loans Inflation rate Prime vs. inflation Unemployment vs. GDP growth Unemployment rate Real GDP growth
Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment actualforecast Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers *includes support activities to mining and oil and gas extraction Other Public Residential Coal and metal mining* Conventional oil and gas Oil sands
Value of Production in Alberta N/A
Figure 2.2 Remaining established reserves under active development
ATHABASCA COLD LAKE PEACE RIVER Figure 2.8. Production of Bitumen in Alberta, m 3 /d Mined Bitumen In Situ
Figure 2.9. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
Figure Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells
Figure In situ bitumen production by oil sands area (OSA) Synthetic Crude Oil Cold Lake OSA Athabasca OSA Peace River OSA
Figure In situ bitumen production by recovery method Synthetic Crude Oil Primary Production CSS Production SAGD Production Experimental Production
Figure Alberta crude bitumen production Surface mining In situ actualforecast
Figure Alberta synthetic crude oil production Synthetic Crude Oil Synthetic crude oil actualforecast
Figure Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory Synthetic Crude Oil Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory
Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO Synthetic Crude Oil Alberta demand (mainly SCO) actualforecast SCO removals from Alberta Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta
Figure 3.1 Remaining established reserves of crude oil Heavy Light-medium
Figure 3.2 Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
Figure 3.3 Annual changes to waterflood reserves
Figure 3.4 Distribution of oil reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 3 m 3 ) Total number of poolsInitial reserves (10 3 m 3 )
Figure 3.5 Oil pool size by discovery year
Figure 3.7 Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil
2008 Initial established reserves m Remaining established reserves m 3 Fig Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves 2008 (10 6 m 3 )
Figure 3.9 Alberta’s remaining established oil reserves versus cumulative production
Figure Alberta successful oil well drilling By modified PSAC area 2007 Wells Drilled = Wells Drilled = % 2% 5% 11% 3% 100% <1% 12%
Total wells = 1738 Figure Oil wells placed on production, 2008 by modified PSAC area
Figure Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2008 by modified PSAC area m 3 /day/well 16.1 [101] 9.6 [60] 8.5 [54] 5.1 [32] 7.6 [48] 2.4 [15] 6.6 [42]
Figure Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area PSAC 8 PSAC 7 PSAC 5 PSAC 3 PSAC 4 PSAC 2 PSAC 1
Figure Total crude oil production and producing wells
Figure Crude oil well productivity in 2008
Figure Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year % of total production from oil wells Pre % 48% 7% 3% 4% 2% 5% 3% 5% 6% 8%
Figure Comparison of crude oil production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta crude oil
Figure WTI crude oil price and well activity actualforecast
actualforecast Figure Alberta average daily production of crude oil Heavy Light-medium
Figure Capacity and location of Alberta refineries
actualforecast Figure Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil Crude oil removals from Alberta Alberta demand
Figure Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent actualforecast Non upgraded bitumen Light-medium SCO Pentanes plus Heavy
Figure Alberta crude oil and equivalent production actualforecast
HSC Mannville
Figure 5.1 Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas
Figure 5.2 Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves
Figure 5.3 New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves * Distribution of changes revised in 2008
Figure 5.5 Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size Remaining reserves (10 9 m 3 ) Total number of pools (10 6 m 3 ) Initial reserves (10 9 m 3 )
Figure 5.6 Conventional gas pool size by discovery year
Figure 5.7 Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves
Figure 5.8 Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas Sweet natural gas Sour natural gas
Figure 5.9 Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components
Figure 5.11 Conventional gas ultimate potential Ultimate potential based on EUB/NEB 2005 Report Remaining reserves Production
Figure 5.13 Conventional gas in place by geological period
Figure 5.14 Alberta successful gas well drilling (conventional) by modified PSAC area % 38% 47% 61%27% 2%21% 1% 2007 wells drilled = % 2008 wells drilled = 7310
Figure 5.15 Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected
Figure 5.16 Conventional gas well connections by modified PSAC area Wells Total Wells connected = Wells Total Wells connected = 7907
Figure 5.18 Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area PSAC 6 PSAC 4 PSAC 5 PSAC 2 PSAC 3 PSAC 1 Gas from oil wells PSAC 7 PSAC 8 % of total production 1% 4% 3% 11% 4% 20% 42% 6% 9%
Figure 5.19 Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells
Figure 5.21 Natural gas well productivity in 2008
Pre Gas from oil wells Figure 5.22 Raw gas production by connection year % of total production from gas wells 5 Connection year
Figure 5.23 Raw gas production of sweet and sour gas
Figure 5.24 Comparison of raw natural gas production Texas onshore Louisiana onshore Alberta US total production
Figure 5.25 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta
Figure 5.26 Alberta natural gas well activity and price actualforecast
Figure 5.27 Conventional marketable gas production actualforecast
Figure 5.28 Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations actualforecast
Figure 5.29 Total gas production in Alberta actualforecast
Figure 5.30 Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes
Figure 5.33 Alberta marketable gas demand by sector Reprocessing plant shrinkage Transportation Electricity generation Other industrial Industrial - petrochemical Industrial – oil sands Residential Commercial actualforecast
Figure 5.34 Historical volumes “available for permitting”
actual forecast Mining and Upgrading In Situ In Situ Cogeneration Mining and Upgrading Cogeneration Figure 5.35 Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations
Figure 5.36 Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading actualforecast Purchased gas Produced gas from bitumen Process gas from upgrading* * Does not included process gas for electricity generation.
actual forecast Process Gas for Mining/Upgrading Produced Gas from Bitumen Wells for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for In situ Recovery Purchased Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Purchased Gas for Mining/Upgrading Process Gas for Electricity Cogeneration Figure 5.37 Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil Sands Production
actualforecast Figure 5.38 Total marketable gas production and demand 23% 26% 33% 44% 58%
Figure 6.1 Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production
Figure 6.2 Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids
Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand actual forecast
Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes Alberta Demand* Supply
Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes Alberta Demand* Supply
Figure 6.7. Pentanes supply from natural gas and demand for diluent actual forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes demand met by alternative sources and types of diluent Alberta Demand* Supply
Figure 7.1 Sulphur production from gas processing plants in Alberta
Figure 7.2 Sulphur production from oil sands
Figure 7.3 Sources of sulphur production Sour gas Refining and upgrading
Figure 7.4 Canadian sulphur offshore exports
Alberta Demand Removed from Alberta Stockpile Withdrawals Stockpile Total Demand Production actual forecast Figure 7.5 Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta
Subbituminous Thermal bituminous Metallurgical bituminous Figure 8.2 Alberta marketable coal production actualforecast
actualforecast Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity
Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation actualforecast
Figure 9.3. Alberta electricity transfers
Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector actualforecast
9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand actual forecast Electricity Generation Demand