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Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago ActualForecast.

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Presentation on theme: "Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago ActualForecast."— Presentation transcript:

1 Figure 1.1 Price of WTI at Chicago ActualForecast

2 Figure 1.2 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead ActualForecast

3 Figure 1.3 Average price of natural gas at plant gate ActualForecast

4 Figure 1.4. Alberta gas well cost estimations Drilling, casing and completion costs estimates (in millions 2003$) By Modified PSAC Area 20022004 Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 Area 6 Area 7 Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study (2001 dollars) 2.29 0.18 0.42 0.73 1.79 0.270.420.450.29 1.97 0.82 0.45 0.18 2.29 0.0% 4.8% 5.5% 12.0% 12.3% 6.2%5.5% increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)

5 Figure 1.5. Alberta oil well cost estimations Drilling, casing and completion costs estimates. (in millions 2003$) By Modified PSAC Area Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 Area 7 Source: PSAC 2004 Well Cost study (2003 dollars) and PSAC 2002 Well Cost study (2001 dollars) 20022004 0.78 0.61 0.53 0.66 0.85 0.64 0.52 0.75 13.2% -2.1% 4.3% 9.0% increase in costs (in percentage, over 2 years)

6 Figure 1.6. Canadian economic indicators

7 Figure 1.7. Alberta GDP growth, unemployment & inflation rates ActualForecast

8 Figure 2.1. Alberta’s three oil sands areas

9 Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves

10 Figure 2.3. Bitumen pay isopachs for the Athabasca Wabiskaw-McMurray deposit at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than 1.5 metres

11 Figure 2.4. Net pay isopachs for recoverable bitumen within the Athabasca Wabiskaw- McMurray at 6 mass per cent cutoff and greater than 10 metres

12 ATHABASCA COLD LAKE PEACE RIVER 2.5 17.5 41.4 111.7 Figure 2.5. Production of bitumen in Alberta 2004 10 3 m 3 /d Mined Bitumen In Situ

13 Figure 2.6. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production

14 Figure 2.7. Alberta crude bitumen production 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Surface Mining In Situ

15 Figure 2.8. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells

16 Figure 2.9. Alberta synthetic crude oil production 10 3 m 3 /d Forecast Actual Synthetic Crude Oil

17 Figure 2.10. Alberta Demand and Disposition of Crude Bitumen and SCO 10 3 m 3 /d Forecast Actual SCO Removals from Alberta Nonupgraded Bitumen Removals from Alberta Alberta Demand (mainly SCO)

18 Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil

19 Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves

20 Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves

21 Fig. 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size (10 3 m 3 )

22 Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year

23 Figure 3.6. Initial established crude oil reserves based on various recovery mechanisms (10 6 m 3 ) Light-mediumHeavy

24 Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil

25 2004 Initial established reserves 2664.9 10 6 m 3 2004 Remaining established reserves 249.2 10 6 m 3 258 17 478 49 1193 75 384 45 176 14 159 45 Fig. 3.8. Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves (10 6 m 3 ) 2 21

26 Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production

27 Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reserves of crude oil 3130 Ultimate potentiial 10 6 m 3

28 Figure 3.11. Alberta successful oil well drilling By Modified PSAC Area 62 12 350 679 2 2003 Wells Drilled = 2345 2004 Wells Drilled = 1949 41 8 557 389 323 8 616 149 178 534 386

29 Figure 3.13. Initial operating day rates of oil wells placed on production, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 17.9 (112) 12.7 (80) 7.3 ( 46) 4.8 (30) 7.3 (46 ) 5.5 (34 ) 10.5 (66) m 3 /day/well (bbl/day/well) Total = 1910 wells 326 3 410 368 609 Figure 3.12. Oil wells placed on production, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 150 44

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31 Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells

32 Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2004

33 7% 11% Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil Production by year placed on production 4% 6% 3% 7% 42% Percent of total production from oil wells 6% 4% 3%

34 Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production Texas Onshore Louisiana Onshore Alberta Crude Oil

35 Figure 3.19. Alberta Crude Oil Price and Well Activity ActualForecast

36 Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil Production (10 3 m 3 /d) ForecastActual Light-Medium Crude Oil Heavy Crude Oil

37 Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries Refinery Capacities - m 3 /d

38 Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Alberta Demand Crude Oil Removals from Alberta

39 Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent 10 3 m 3 /d ForecastActual Light-Medium Heavy Pentanes Plus SCO Nonupgraded Bitumen

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41 Figure 4.1. Alberta successful gas well drilling – coalbed methane By Modified PSAC Area 2004 Wells Drilled = 1174 151 613 3 407

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43 Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of marketable gas

44 Figure 5.2. Remaining marketable gas reserves

45 Total = 72 10 9 m 3 22 6 Figure 5.3. Alberta unconnected gas reserves, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 4 4 3 2 16 * Numbers not to scale 15

46 Figure 5.4. New, development, and revisions to marketable gas reserves

47 Total = 145.9 10 9 m 3 12.0 -3.7 Figure 5.5. Marketable Gas Reserves Changes, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 10 9 m 3 3.7 0.0 4.9 71.0 17.9 40.1 * Numbers not to scale

48 Fig. 5.6. Distribution of Gas Reserves by size (10 9 m 3 )

49 Figure 5.7. Gas pools by size and discovery year

50 Figure 5.8. Geological distribution of marketable gas reserves

51 10 9 m 3 Sweet Natural Gas Sour Natural Gas Figure 5.9. Remaining marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas

52 Figure 5.10. Expected recovery of natural gas components

53 Figure 5.11. Growth of initial established reserves of marketable gas Ultimate potential (6.52) 10 12 m 3 at 37.4 MJ/m 3 Actual as of December 31, 2004

54 Figure 5.12. Gas ultimate potential Remaining reserves Production Ultimate potential based on 2004 study 10 9 m 3

55 Remaining established reserves 1127 10 9 m 3 Yet-to-be established reserves 1729 10 9 m 3 338 43 403 643 155 272 52 109 48 95 52 197 61 36 169 Figure 5.13. Regional Distribution of Alberta Gas Reserves (10 9 m 3 ) 183 1706 256 953 214 904 220 204 90 Initial established reserves 4547 10 9 m 3

56 Ultimate Potential: 2004 * 1 6276 10 9 m 3 Ultimate Potential: 1991 * 2 5600 10 9 m 3 1122 439 2349 1176 1044 323 225 180 401 341 103 151 889 Figure. 5.14. Regional Distribution of Alberta’s Ultimate Potential for Conventional Natural Gas (10 9 m 3 ) 434 315 2374 * 1 as-is heating value * 2 37.4 MJ/m3

57 Figure 5.15. Gas in place by geological period

58 Figure 5.16. Alberta successful gas well drilling - conventional By Modified PSAC Area 477 243 1482 811 6567 85 2003 Wells Drilled = 12060 2004 Wells Drilled = 12960 469 163 346 357 2049 2562 1792 102 898 6609

59 Figure 5.17. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected Number of Wells

60 Figure 5.19. Initial operating day rates of connections, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 7 (0.25) 19 (0.67) 5 (0.18) 8 (0.28) 5 (0.18) 20 (0.71) 65 (2.30) 4 (0.14) 10 3 m 3 /day/well (MMcf/day/well) Total = 13 059 wells 7107 84 2111 1743 1080 Figure 5.18. Conventional gas well connections, 2004 By Modified PSAC Area 263 253 418

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64 Connection Year Percentage of Total Production from Gas Wells in 2004 26% 13% 16% 11% 9 % 5 % Figure 5.23. Raw gas production by connection year 7 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2%

65 Figure 5.24. Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta

66 Figure 5.25. Alberta Natural Gas Well Activity and Price Actual Forecast

67 Figure 5.26. Disposition of conventional marketable gas production Actual Forecast 10 9 m 3 Tcf 7.1 5.3 3.6 1.8 25% 23% 27% 36%42% Removals from AlbertaAlberta Demand

68 Figure 5.27. Comparison of natural gas production Tcf Texas Onshore Louisiana Onshore Alberta

69 Actual Forecast

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71 Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes 10 6 m 3

72 Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector 10 9 m 3 Actual Forecast Residential Commercial Industrial – Oil Sands Industrial - Petrochemical Other Industrial Electricity Generation Transportation Re-processing Plant Shrinkage

73 Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted and annual production

74 Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of natural gas liquids

75 Figure 6.3. Schematic of Alberta NGL flows Alberta Gas & NGL Market Alberta Gas & NGL Market - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Field Plants Field Plants Marketable Gas Raw Gas Extraction Plant - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Chicago, IL Other Canadian Markets Other Canadian Markets US Markets Alberta Border Crude Oil Fractionation Plants - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Propane Butanes Straddle Plants - NGL Mix - Ethane - Propane - Butanes - Pentanes Plus Oil Pools Refineries Alliance High Pressure Pipeline Gas Pools Gas Pools Sulphur Battery Dry Gas NGL Mix Spec product Rich gas R R R R Point royalties collected Dry or rich gas

76 Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast

77 Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes

78 Figure 6.6. Butane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes

79 Figure 6.7 Pentane supply from natural gas and demand 10 3 m 3 /d Actual Forecast * excludes solvent flood volumes

80 Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production Sour Gas Refining and Upgrading Actual Forecast

81 Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands

82 Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports

83 Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta Alberta Demand Removed from Province Stockpile Actual Forecast

84 Figure 8.1. Alberta Marketable Coal Production Million tonnes


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