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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Bank.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Bank."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Global Emerging Markets Spring Investor Conference April 20, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

2 U.S. Shale Gas 2 Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

3 Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013 3 shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of March 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

4 Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output 4 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated onshore Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011 Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

5 5 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 ProjectionsHistory Industrial Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation 33% 14% 6% 32% 12% 33% 19% 3% 31% 13% *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Gas to liquids 2% Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

6 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 6 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 ProjectionsHistory 2011 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

7 7 U.S. natural gas imports and exports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 trillion cubic feet Reference case High resource case Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports Alaska LNG exports Imports from Canada LNG imports

8 U.S. Tight Oil 8 Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

9 Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years 9 tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through December 2012 Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013

10 10 U.S. tight oil production leads growth in domestic production Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 million barrels per day ProjectionsHistory 2011 Alaska Tight oil Other lower 48 states onshore Lower 48 states offshore STEO April 2013 U.S. crude oil projection ProjectionsHistory 2011 Alaska Tight oil Other lower 48 states onshore Lower 48 states offshore Reference caseHigh resource case

11 U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand 11 U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports 37% ProjectionsHistory Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013 Petroleum Exports -8% 32% STEO forecast for 2014 2014 40% 2012

12 U.S. and Saudi Arabian crude oil and petroleum liquids production Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013 12 million barrels per day Note: Volumes for 2012 and 2013 are projected. Refinery gain for Saudi Arabia is estimated as one half of U.S. refinery gain on a percentage basis Source: EIA, This Week in Petroleum, Dec 19, 2012

13 Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013 13 Resource quantities and distribution Surface vs. mineral rights Risk appetite of industry participants Infrastructure and technology Environmental constraints

14 Thomas Fanning Chairman, President and CEO Southern Company Aldo Flores-Quiroga Secretary General International Energy Forum Hans Rosling Chairman Gapminder Keynote Speakers

15 For more information Adam Sieminski, B of A/Merrill Lynch, April 20, 2013 15 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.govwww.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeowww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steowww.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieowww.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergywww.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthlywww.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annualwww.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual


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