1© hwh Gesellschaft für Transport- und Unternehmensberatung mbH 2012 „Quo vadis rail freight traffic 2025 Perspectives and need for action for the rail freight sector“ hwh Gesellschaft für Transport- und Unternehmensberatung mbH, Germany November 2012

 Increase of energy costs with higer impact for road traffic than rail traffic  Increase of wages for drivers with higher impact for road traffic than rail traffic  Increasing attention on Green Logistics  Capacity bottlenecks (congestions) for road infrastructure  Increase of globalisation of transports, growth of container traffics to and from ports  Constant closings of railway sidings, weakening of single waggon traffic  Capacity bottle necks in the railway infrastructure  One-sided charging of costs for rail freight because of new regulations (e.g. ECM, charging of cost for noise exposure, …)  Cost increases through expansion of ERTMS/ETCS  … Strengthening of competitive situation rail freight traffic Weakening of competitive situation rail freight traffic + - 2© hwh Gesellschaft für Transport- und Unternehmensberatung mbH Karlsruhe  Analysis of the actual situation of rail freight traffic  Analysis and presentation of necessary measures in order to achieve the ambitious targets for rail freight traffic in 2025  Public presentation of the results of the study in june 2013 during the fair trade „Transport and Logistics“ in Munich. Objective target of the survey Quo vadis rail freight traffic 2025 – background and target of the survey

Essential questions to ask for the future development of rail freight traffic 2025 – part 1 3© hwh Gesellschaft für Transport- und Unternehmensberatung mbH Karlsruhe  Which projections exist for the development of rail freight traffic until 2025 and how likely are they to be fullfilled in consideration of the existing political framework (infrastructure policy, transport policy,…)?  Which political framework exists and which implications result for the competitive situation of rail freight?  What are the main logistical trends in the railway-affine industries until 2025 and what are the implications for rail freight traffics?  What is the logistical situation today in the railway-affine industries and what are the benefits of rail freight traffics for these industries? Which requirements must be fullfilled that industries increase the share of railway traffics?  Which are the benefits of rail freigth traffics for the industrie and the economy (emissions, road congestion, accidents,…)?

Essential questions to ask for the future development of rail freight traffic 2025 – part 2 4© hwh Gesellschaft für Transport- und Unternehmensberatung mbH Karlsruhe  Which are the benefits of conventional waggon load traffics in comparison to combined traffics?  How can single waggon load traffics be strengthened and which alternative forms of organisation exist to strengthen competition in single waggon load traffic?  How is the competitive situation of rail freight traffics in comparison to road traffics today and how will this situation develop in the future under different political frameworks?  Which innovations in rail freight traffics are likley to be implemented? Are there real economical benefits out of these innovations for the rail freight sector and their customers in order to strengthen the competitive situation?  Which scenario for the economical and the political framework are necessary for the development of rail freight traffics until 2025?  Which requirements can be derived from the scenario for the industry players and the politics?

5Prof. Dr. Wittenbrink, Dr. Heizmann, Hagenlocher 1 Analysis of the actual situation of rail freight traffic, the competitive situation as well as relevant logistical trends 3 Analysis of the organisation of single load waggons traffics 4 Empirical analysis, case studies rail freight traffic, workshops and web- based inquiry rail freight traffic 6 Cost analysis and comparison of cost structures road traffic vs. rail traffic 2 Analysis of the political framework for rail freight traffics Working packages 8 Innovations in rail freight traffic and feasibilty of innovations 5 Evaluation of the economical profit of rail freight traffic The survey consists of 9 working packages 9 7 Scenarios for the development of rail freight traffic 2025 Requirements for the rail freight industry and the politics